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FUR

Furman 16 at UCF 15

UCF
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadFUR aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreFUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGSAFETYTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:50 · Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 35 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 18 yds to the UCF 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense−3.3Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:10: Ernie Cain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jon Croft Hollingsworth KICK) — FUR win probability +6.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q3 10:24: Reese Hannon pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 61 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FUR win probability +9.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:11: Matthew Wright 29 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +1.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:10: Jon Croft Hollingsworth 55 yd FG GOOD — FUR win probability +10.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:36: Triston Luke run for 3 yds to the UCF 35 — FUR win probability +16.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10FUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:56FUR 4th & 4 at FUR 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:07UCF 4th & 7 at FUR 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:07FUR 4th & 9 at FUR 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:04UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:00FUR 4th & 4 at FUR 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:13UCF 4th & 2 at FUR 26, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00FUR 4th & 4 at FUR 31, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:47UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:24UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:28FUR 4th & 9 at FUR 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:50FUR 4th & 19 at FUR 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−3.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:11UCF 4th & 12 at FUR 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−14.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:10FUR 4th & 6 at UCF 38, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−1.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:10UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:32FUR 4th & 2 at FUR 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:19UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:50FUR 4th & 3 at UCF 42, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.4 ptsPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−8.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−7.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:22FUR 4th & 16 at UCF 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−4.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 1:45UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:10FUR Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:24FUR Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
95.9%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
95.9%
Taj McGowan run for 8 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
95.9%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-3
95.9%
Tristan Payton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+4
95.9%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Nick Patti for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+6
95.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds , Andrej Suttles returns for 6 yds to the Furm 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
95.3%
Triston Luke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Furm 16Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+2
95.3%
Triston Luke run for 2 yds to the Furm 18Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+10
95.3%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Logan McCarter for 10 yds to the Furm 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-14
95.3%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Andrej Suttles, PENALTY FUR personal foul 14 yards to the FUR14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 24
OWN 14
+27
95.3%
Triston Luke run for 27 yds to the Furm 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
95.2%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Andy Schumpert for 7 yds to the Furm 48Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-10
95.2%
Antonio Wilcox rush for 2 yards to the 50 yardline (21), PENALTY FUR holding 10 yards to the FUR38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+9
95.3%
Antonio Wilcox run for 9 yds to the Furm 47Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
95.2%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Antonio Wilcox, broken up by Thomas NilesSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+4
95.3%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 41 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 4 yds to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:5894% → 94%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
94.3%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+6
94.3%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Blake Tiralosi for 6 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
94.3%
Nick Patti run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+13
94.3%
Nick Patti run for 13 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
94.4%
Nick Patti run for 8 yds to the Furm 47Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
94.5%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the Furm 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
94.5%
Nick Patti run for 5 yds to the Furm 39Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
94.5%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+10
94.4%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 10 yds to the Furm 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
94.5%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the Furm 28Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
94.5%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the Furm 27Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+21
94.4%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Jordan Franks for 21 yds to the Furm 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.2%
Nick Patti run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:3094% → 94%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
94.2%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the Furm 15Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
94.2%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the Furm 12Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
94.1%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the Furm 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
93.9%
Nick Patti run for 7 yds to the Furm 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
93.9%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Furm 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.9%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the Furm 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Cedric ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
93.5%
Matthew Wright 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.6%
Triston Luke run for 1 yd to the Furm 26Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.6%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Triston LukeSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.7%
Reese Hannon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 49 yds, downed at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
93.3%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Chris Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
93.2%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Tristan Payton for 13 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.6%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.5%
Bo Schneider pass complete to Blake Tiralosi for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
93.4%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Chris Johnson, broken up by Reggie ThomasSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
93.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrej Suttles at the Furm 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 8SF
1 play · -10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-10
94.0%
Reese Hannon sacked by Chequan Burkett for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
94.8%
Tristan Payton run for 12 yds to the Furm 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.9%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the Furm 48Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
94.9%
Bo Schneider pass intercepted Trey Robinson return for no gain to the Furm 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.9%
Antonio Wilcox run for no gain to the Furm 17Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
93.9%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete, broken up by Jamiyus PittmanSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+6
94.0%
Antonio Wilcox run for 6 yds to the Furm 23Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+24
94.0%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 35 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Furm 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4195% → 94%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
94.5%
Taj McGowan run for 5 yds to the Furm 29Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-1
94.5%
Tristan Payton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Furm 30Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
94.3%
Nick Patti run for 4 yds to the Furm 26Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+1
94.0%
Nick Patti run for 1 yd to the Furm 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:587% → 14%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Andrej SuttlesSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.7%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Jordan Snellings for 12 yds to the Furm 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
93.4%
Deon Sanders pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 28 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
92.7%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Logan McCarter for 13 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.6%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete, broken up by Tre NealSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
92.8%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Chad Scott for 18 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.6%
Reese Hannon run for 3 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.2%
Ernie Cain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jon Croft Hollingsworth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2090% → 89%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.6%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Cedric ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
89.4%
Bo Schneider pass incomplete to Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
88.9%
Bo Schneider sacked by Brad Minter for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
88.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Andrej Suttles at the Furm 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
89.9%
Triston Luke run for 1 yd to the Furm 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.1%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 5 yds to the Furm 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
87.7%
Antonio Wilcox run for 1 yd to the Furm 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
88.1%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Kedar Bryant for no gain to the Furm 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.6%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 37 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 31 Chris Johnson fumbled, recovered by UCF Chris JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
88.5%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
88.6%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
88.1%
HARRIS, Tyler pass incomplete to SMITH, Tre'Quan (J. Milliken), PENALTY FUR pass interference 10 yards to the UCF45, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.2%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Nick PattiSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
88.9%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Nick Patti, broken up by Daniel ButlerSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
88.3%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
87.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 17TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4514% → 23%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
86.4%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Kevin Mall for 19 yds to the Furm 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
76.8%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 61 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.4%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
79.2%
Nick Patti run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.3%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Blake Tiralosi for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
77.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Andrej Suttles at the Furm 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
76.6%
FURMAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Furm 14Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+1
76.8%
Triston Luke run for 1 yd to the Furm 15Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+5
77.0%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Logan McCarter for 5 yds to the Furm 20Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
77.7%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Logan McCarterSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
78.7%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0078% → 80%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.8%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
77.5%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Blake Tiralosi for 8 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
78.5%
HARRIS, Tyler pass incomplete to BLOOM, Cal (Carl Rider), PENALTY FUR pass interference 5 yards to the FUR49, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
79.6%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Rodney Anderson return for 16 yds to the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0029% → 24%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
71.0%
Reese Hannon sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 9 yards to the Furm 45Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 19
OWN 45
0
73.4%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Andrej Suttles, broken up by Chequan BurkettSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 19
OWN 45
0
74.1%
Reese Hannon run for no gain to the Furm 45Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 19
OWN 45
+18
75.7%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 35 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 18 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:0475% → 77%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
74.7%
C.J. Jones run for 8 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
76.5%
C.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
76.4%
Tyler Harris run for 11 yds to the Furm 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
77.1%
C.J. Jones run for 18 yds to the Furm 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
78.2%
C.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the Furm 22Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+13
78.2%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Blake Tiralosi for 13 yds to the Furm 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
78.2%
PATTI, Nick rush for 3 yards to the FUR6 (Brad Minter), PENALTY UCF holding 10 yards to the FUR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+7
77.8%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the Furm 12Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
78.1%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Blake TiralosiSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
76.4%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
77.4%
Matthew Wright 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 23FG
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:0124% → 38%
Q3 0:11
1ST & -126
OWN 35
-5
76.0%
FURMAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Furm 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+14
76.5%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 14 yds to the Furm 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
72.8%
Ernie Cain run for 3 yds to the Furm 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
73.1%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Jordan SnellingsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
73.7%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Logan McCarter for 9 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
72.5%
Ernie Cain run for 2 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.6%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Kedar BryantSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
72.7%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Jordan Snellings for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
72.2%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Kevin MallSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+55
61.6%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.7%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
68.4%
C.J. Jones run for 6 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
67.2%
C.J. Jones run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
66.7%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
64.4%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Reggie ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
63.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Logan McCarter at the Furm 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4041% → 42%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
59.2%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to J. Snellings, PENALTY UCF pass interference 15 yards to the FUR33, 1ST DOWN FUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
58.0%
Ernie Cain run for 2 yds to the Furm 35Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
58.1%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Ernie Cain for 6 yds to the Furm 41Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
54.2%
Reese Hannon pass incomplete to Triston LukeSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
57.6%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 59%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
62.4%
Tyler Harris pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
61.9%
Tyler Harris run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-2
60.6%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Tyler Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
59.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Logan McCarter at the Furm 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0750% → 58%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
49.7%
Antonio Wilcox run for 6 yds to the Furm 44Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
48.1%
Antonio Wilcox run for 2 yds to the Furm 46Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
48.4%
Antonio Wilcox run for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.8%
Antonio Wilcox run for no gain to the UCF 46 Antonio Wilcox fumbled, forced by Domenic Spencer, recovered by Furm Eric ThoniSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
46.9%
Reese Hannon pass complete to Andrej Suttles for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-1
39.7%
Ernie Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
41.7%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28FUMBLE
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
53.3%
C.J. Jones run for 8 yds to the UCF 38 C.J. Jones fumbled, forced by Reggie Thomas, recovered by Furm Byron JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 1:1464% → 59%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
36.4%
Triston Luke run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-5
33.7%
FURMAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
33.2%
Reese Hannon run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+1
35.3%
Ernie Cain run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 11
OPP 39
-5
39.2%
FURMAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
40.6%
Jon Croft Hollingsworth punt for 34 yds, downed at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 34%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
37.5%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Jordan Franks for 2 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
36.9%
Tyler Harris pass complete to Cedric Thompson for 5 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
34.3%
Tyler Harris pass intercepted Trey Robinson return for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
18.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-2
18.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:36
Triston Luke run for 3 yds to the UCF 35
-16.9
FG · Q4 12:10
Jon Croft Hollingsworth 55 yd FG GOOD
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com