View as
Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreME score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:55 · James De Martini punt for 39 yds , Darion Monroe returns for 2 yds to the Tulan 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:38: Sherman Badie run for 56 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +5.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:11: Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:15: Lazedrick Thompson run for 11 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST down — TULN win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:05: Dontrell Hilliard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:29: Dontrell Hilliard run for 85 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ME made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 7:53TULN 4th & 6 at ME 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.7%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call74.8%91% to makePunt73.5%−1.2average punt
- Q1 7:46ME 4th & 10 at ME 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.0%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q1 6:14TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snapGo for it74.2%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.5%average punt
- Q1 5:13ME 4th & 25 at ME 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it24.3%−1.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q2 11:55ME 4th & 2 at TULN 47, down 3Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 7:33ME 4th & 7 at ME 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.2%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q2 5:11ME 4th & 10 at ME 49, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it11.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q2 0:59TULN 4th & 22 at TULN 16, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snapGo for it85.5%−3.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%average punt
- Q3 14:53TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 24, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it87.8%−1.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%average punt
- Q3 13:00ME 4th & 2 at ME 36, down 17Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:56ME 4th & 5 at TULN 35, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%42% to convertField goal3.4%−0.245% to makePunt3.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:43TULN 4th & 23 at TULN 41, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.2%−1.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q3 3:55ME 4th & 10 at ME 33, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q4 9:35ME 4th & 13 at TULN 38, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.121% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.138% to makePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:07TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 32, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 5:06ME 4th & 1 at ME 37, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:52ME 4th & 2 at TULN 20, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.175% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ME made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:56ME Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.8%97% to makeGo for two22.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:55TULN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.1%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:38TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:11TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:05TULN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:29TULN Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0419% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.5%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jared Osumah for 9 yds to the Maine 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
81.5%
Nigel Beckford run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+35
81.5%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 35 yds Dan Collins fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+5
80.7%
[GUN], Dan Collins middle pass incomplete to Jared Osumah, PENALTY TLN offside defense (THOMAS, Eric) 5 yards to the TLN10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
80.7%
Dan Collins pass complete to Nigel Beckford for 5 yds to the Tulan 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2FG13 plays · 69 yds · 4:0380% → 79%
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
80.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MAINE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
80.2%
[GUN], LEE, Tanner sideline pass incomplete to BREAUX, Devon, PENALTY MAINE offside defense (Patrick Ricard) 5 yards to the MAINE45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+18
80.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 18 yds to the Maine 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+15
80.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 15 yds to the Maine 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Sherman Badie, broken up by Patrick RicardSimilar
Q1 7:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
79.2%
Andrew DiRocco 23 yd FG GOOD MAINE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
TULNDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
MEDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
50
-15
77.0%
Dan Collins run for a loss of 15 yards to the Maine 35 Dan Collins fumbled, recovered by Maine Dan CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD14 plays · 80 yds · 7:2377% → 79%
Q1 4:18
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
77.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 3 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+22
77.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 22 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+16
78.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 16 yds to the Maine 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+14
76.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 14 yds to the Maine 18Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.8%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 11:55
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+2
77.1%
James De Martini punt for 39 yds , Darion Monroe returns for 2 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD6 plays · 90 yds · 1:3377% → 84%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
77.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 16 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+14
76.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Rickey Preston for 14 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
78.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Rickey Preston for 2 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 7:33
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
83.6%
James De Martini punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD3 plays · 52 yds · 1:0484% → 91%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
90.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.6%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 10 yds to the Maine 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
88.3%
[GUN], Nigel Beckford rush over left end for 5 yards to the MAINE40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MAINE holding (Benedict Wezel) 10 yards to the MAINE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+14
88.8%
[GUN], Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jared Osumah (NICKERSON, P.), PENALTY TLN pass interference (NICKERSON, P.) 14 yards to the MAINE39, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
88.1%
Dan Collins pass complete to Nigel Beckford for 10 yds to the Maine 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
88.7%
James De Martini punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Darion Monroe at the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1691% → 91%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
91.2%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 11 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-10
91.2%
[GUN], LEE, Tanner slant pass incomplete to DACE, Larry, PENALTY TLN holding (TAYLOR, Chris) 10 yards to the TLN18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-10
90.8%
Tanner Lee sacked by Patrick Ricard for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-1
89.6%
Tanner Lee sacked by Randy Samuels for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 24Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
89.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 48 yds , Justin Flores returns for no gain to the Maine 28 Justin Flores fumbled, recovered by Maine Justin FloresSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.4%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 4 yds to the Maine 32Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
90.2%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to John Hardy, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+3
90.5%
James De Martini punt for 55 yds , Darion Monroe returns for 3 yds to the Tulan 39 TULANE Penalty, illegal block (Devon Breaux) to the Tulan 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16TD12 plays · 94 yds · 4:4591% → 97%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
91.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 4 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+10
90.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 10 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+51
90.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 51 yds to the Maine 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+9
91.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 9 yds to the Maine 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.6%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 6 yds to the Tulan 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:1098% → 98%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Devon Breaux, broken up by Tayvon HallSimilar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+23
97.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 23 yds to the Maine 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-13
97.9%
Tanner Lee sacked by Zachary Hume for a loss of 13 yards to the Tulan 41Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 23
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Peter Picerelli punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Justin Flores at the Maine 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
TULNDrive 20TD1 play · 85 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
99.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 85 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21INT8 plays · 31 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.8%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+8
99.8%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 8 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+12
99.8%
Dan Collins pass intercepted Darion Monroe return for 12 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22FUMBLE6 plays · -5 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
MEDrive 23INT2 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TULNDrive 24INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MEDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Justin Flores for 13 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
99.9%
[GUN], Drew Belcher rush quarterback draw for 7 yards to the TLN28 (WASHINGTON, E.), PENALTY MAINE personal foul (Daniel Burrows) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jordy Joseph pass complete to Devin Glenn for no gain to the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 27DOWNS14 plays · 64 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q4 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+11
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Jordan Dunn for 11 yds to the Maine 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Jordan Dunn for 7 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Justin Flores for 10 yds to the Maine 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by Stephon LoftonSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Sacoy Malone for no gain to the Maine 47Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+25
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to John Hardy for 25 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Jordan Dunn for 6 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:11
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 7:38
Sherman Badie run for 56 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q3 7:05
Dontrell Hilliard run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+5.6