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ECU

East Carolina 21 at Navy 45

NAVY
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+4NAVY 99.7%Keenan Reynolds run for 17 yds for aTD, (Austin Grebe KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 42 · Q4 3:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:45 · Keenan Reynolds run for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense+33.7Score differential+23.3Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:29: Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:11: Chris Swain run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:03: Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK) — ECU win probability +13.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:10: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 7 at NAVY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:08ECU 4th & 13 at NAVY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:29ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  4. Q3 9:31NAVY 4th & 8 at ECU 33, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:20ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:20ECU 4th & 1 at NAVY 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−4.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:02NAVY 4th & 22 at ECU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:35NAVY 4th & 8 at ECU 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:12NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:45ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:29NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:11NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:03ECU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:10NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:20ECU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:45NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 5 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
60.6%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 1 yd to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete, broken up by Amos MasonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+12
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 12 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+7
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 7 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.6%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
60.6%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:3061% → 64%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
60.7%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
60.8%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
60.8%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
60.9%
Dishan Romine run for 23 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
61.1%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
61.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+14
61.0%
Dishan Romine run for 14 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
61.1%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
61.1%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2737% → 42%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.2%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
63.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 14 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
62.9%
Chris Hairston run for 15 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
62.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+9
62.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to DaQuan Barnes for 9 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
62.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 7 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
62.0%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+6
62.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
62.0%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
62.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 10 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 2 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:4961% → 67%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
61.4%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 20 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
61.7%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
62.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
61.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 14 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
62.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
62.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+6
61.5%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
62.0%
Quentin Ezell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:4835% → 33%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.7%
Blake Kemp run for 2 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+36
64.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 36 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
62.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 7 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-1
62.8%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 21
-9
63.6%
Blake Kemp sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+48
67.4%
Davis Plowman 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3967% → 78%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
67.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 23 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
68.6%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
68.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 9 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
68.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
68.9%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+7
68.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
68.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 16 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
68.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
75.2%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+7
75.7%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
75.3%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Josiah PowellSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
75.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 4:5277% → 93%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
77.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 11 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
77.2%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
77.2%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
77.5%
Quentin Ezell run for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
78.0%
Quentin Ezell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
78.2%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+3
77.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
78.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 18 yds to the ECaro 25 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Jamir Tillman) to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
79.3%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+6
79.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 6 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
79.4%
Chris Swain run for 11 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Fred Presley) to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
79.4%
Quentin Ezell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.6%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:0810% → 21%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
89.0%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
89.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 6 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
89.3%
HAIRSTON, Chris rush for 5 yards to the ECU44 (GONZALES, D), PENALTY ECU illegal block (JONES, Isaiah) 10 yards to the ECU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+21
90.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
50
+8
88.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to DaQuan Barnes for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+10
90.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.1%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
78.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
82.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
15 plays · 49 yds · 5:2982% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
81.4%
Chris Swain run for 14 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
82.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
82.2%
Toneo Gulley run for 10 yds to the NAVY 45 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Jamir Tillman) to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
82.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
50
+4
81.6%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
82.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
82.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
81.7%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
82.3%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
82.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan Romine, broken up by Joe AllelySimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+7
82.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Shawn White for 7 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:0518% → 16%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
82.4%
Anthony Scott run for 7 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
81.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 2 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
81.2%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
81.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 9 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
79.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for no gain to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Kwazel BertrandSimilar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
84.1%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
83.5%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
83.6%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
83.0%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
83.8%
Blake Kemp run for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
88.6%
Chris Swain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
87.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 1
50
+5
87.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Demetri McGill) to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.7%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
88.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
88.2%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
88.9%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-8
88.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 37 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Navy Keenan ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 17
OPP 37
0
88.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Chris Swain, broken up by Montese OvertonSimilar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 17
OPP 37
-5
87.3%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 22
OPP 42
0
87.3%
Alex Barta punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
90.0%
Blake Kemp sacked by Amos Mason for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 17 Blake Kemp fumbled, recovered by Navy Will Anthony , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3894% → 99%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
93.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (Domonique Lennon) to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.7%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 3:502% → 7%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
98.3%
Chris Hairston run for 8 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+10
98.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 10 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.2%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+20
98.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 20 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.1%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Quay Johnson, broken up by D.J. PalmoreSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
98.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+19
98.2%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 19 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete, broken up by Will AnthonySimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
97.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 11 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.8%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.8%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
93.1%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3595% → 100%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.0%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
95.1%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Joey Gaston) to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+26
94.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 26 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
95.5%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
95.6%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+6
95.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
95.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
95.6%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
95.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
95.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
95.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.4%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Chris Hairston for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+5
99.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Quay Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
99.4%
Blake Kemp pass intercepted Tyler Goble return for 32 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.7%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Tago Smith run for no gain to the ECaro 8 Tago Smith fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.7%
Shawn White run for 5 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.7%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 8Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.8%
Austin Grebe 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.5%
Anthony Scott run for 13 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
99.5%
Devin Anderson run for 17 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.5%
Devin Anderson run for 15 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:03
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q2 8:29
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q2 2:11
Chris Swain run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com