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CIN

Cincinnati 37 at Miami (OH) 33

M-OH
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:40 · Drew Kummer pass complete to Jared Murphy for 25 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior−41.3Home team on offense−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:15: Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +8.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:05: Drew Kummer pass complete to Sam Martin for 75 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson PAT MISSED) — M-OH win probability +10.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: Drew Kummer pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:12: Kaleb Patterson 21 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +12.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: Hayden Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +57.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 13CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 4 at M-OH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:50M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:55CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:58M-OH 4th & 7 at CIN 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:19M-OH 4th & 5 at CIN 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:16CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:04M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 27, down 4
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:38CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:17CIN 4th & 17 at M-OH 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 34, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:28CIN 4th & 14 at M-OH 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:28M-OH 4th & 6 at CIN 26, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−6.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:29CIN 4th & 6 at M-OH 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−12.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:29M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:06M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−6.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:59CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−2.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:43M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:12M-OH 4th & 4 at CIN 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−24.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:22M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−4.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:52M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:47CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:59M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:04CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:15M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:05M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:54CIN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:26M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:13CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:1392% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
8.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 14 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
8.2%
Tion Green run for 22 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
8.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
8.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 1 yd to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
8.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+27
8.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 27 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.7%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:419% → 11%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
8.8%
KUMMER, Drew rush over left tackle for 8 yards to the MIAMI27 (WILSON, Eric), PENALTY MIAMI false start (BUCHANAN, C.) 3 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 13
OWN 22
+4
8.8%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Sam Martin for 4 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
8.8%
Drew Kummer run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
8.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+25
8.8%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Jared Murphy for 25 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
8.9%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
8.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Fred McRae IVSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
8.9%
Drew Kummer run for 8 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
8.9%
Leonard Ross run for 9 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+21
10.5%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Sam Shisso for 21 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
10.2%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
10.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
10.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+4
10.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 52 yds , Jared Murphy returns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
10.7%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Kenny Young for 8 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
10.7%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Fred McRae IVSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+6
10.6%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
10.7%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
10.8%
Drew Kummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+3
10.6%
Drew Kummer run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
10.6%
Christian Koch punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Max Morrison at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
11.5%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-2
11.4%
Hosey Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-6
11.6%
Gunner Kiel sacked by JT Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+21
11.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 56 yds , Jared Murphy returns for 21 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
13.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-2
13.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Fred McRae IV for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
12.8%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
12.5%
Christian Koch punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Max Morrison at the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 2:0487% → 89%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
12.8%
BOONE, Mike rush over left end for 11 yards to the CIN23, out-of-bounds (BIRDSALL, Bert), PENALTY CIN holding (HOLTON, Johnny) 4 yards to the CIN8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 14
OWN 8
+16
12.9%
Mike Boone run for 16 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+74
12.8%
Mike Boone run for 74 yds to the MiaOh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
12.1%
Tion Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
12.1%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete (BURRIS, Brison), PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (BURRIS, Brison) 2 yards to the MIAMI2, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.0%
Tion Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 2:3912% → 14%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
11.7%
Leonard Ross run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
12.0%
Leonard Ross run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
12.0%
KUMMER, Drew pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Ro., PENALTY CIN personal foul (WILSON, Mark) 15 yards to the CIN43, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.3%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
12.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 12 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
12.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 9 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+1
12.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
12.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Fred McRae IV, broken up by Bryce JenkinsonSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
12.6%
Kenny Young run for 14 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
13.1%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
13.1%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Fred McRae IVSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
12.8%
Drew Kummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
14.4%
Nick Dowd 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5586% → 86%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
13.7%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
13.6%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
13.3%
Tion Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
13.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
13.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
14.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
14.5%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Kenny Young for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
14.4%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete, broken up by Kevin BrownSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+10
14.0%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Chris Hudson for 10 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
13.9%
Christian Koch punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
15.2%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
14.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
14.6%
WILLIAMS, Hosey rush over left end for no gain to the CIN38 (ALBRIGHT, B.;BURDINE, AJ), PENALTY CIN holding (MINOR, Jaylyin) 10 yards to the CIN28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
15.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 20
OWN 28
0
15.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Hosey Williams, broken up by Bryson AlbrightSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+6
15.7%
Hosey Williams run for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
15.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:3615% → 25%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
15.4%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+36
15.3%
Gus Ragland run for 36 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
16.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
16.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+40
16.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 40 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
24.6%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:5179% → 79%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
21.2%
Mike Boone run for 24 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
19.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 2 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
19.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 7 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
19.7%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
19.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 6 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+8
19.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 8 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
19.1%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 15 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 17
OPP 25
0
19.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 17
OPP 25
0
19.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 17
OPP 25
0
20.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by TJ WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
20.7%
Andrew Gantz 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
30.2%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Sam Martin for 75 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1174% → 82%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
26.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 11 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
25.3%
Hosey Williams run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
24.9%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-5
25.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
25.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 7 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
25.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
25.2%
Hosey Williams run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+5
24.9%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
24.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 10 yds to the MiaOh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
17.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
22.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
23.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
24.3%
Drew Kummer run for no gain to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
22.8%
Christian Koch punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0778% → 77%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
22.4%
Tion Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
23.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+33
24.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 18 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, roughing passer (Bryson Albright) to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
21.0%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
20.2%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-9
20.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Bryson Albright for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 30 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Cincy Chad West , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+1
21.2%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
22.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
23.4%
Andrew Gantz 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0223% → 41%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
23.4%
Kenny Young run for 35 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
27.6%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Fred McRae IVSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
27.5%
Leonard Ross run for 4 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
26.0%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+15
24.4%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Chris Hudson for 15 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
27.6%
Leonard Ross run for 8 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
27.6%
Drew Kummer run for 1 yd to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
41.4%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FG
18 plays · 74 yds · 6:5264% → 66%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.4%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
36.6%
Hosey Williams run for 10 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
35.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
36.3%
Hosey Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
37.7%
Hayden Moore run for 10 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
33.9%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 1
50
+2
32.4%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
32.7%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to HOLTON, Johnny (BIRDSALL, Bert), PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (BIRDSALL, Bert) 15 yards to the MIAMI33, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Bert BirdsallSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
31.7%
Hayden Moore run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
31.3%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+12
31.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Alex Chisum for 12 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
31.3%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
31.3%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
41.7%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
34.5%
Andrew Gantz 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.8%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
40.6%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
38.9%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
38.1%
Christian Koch punt for 41 yds, downed at the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:2064% → 66%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
36.4%
Hosey Williams run for 6 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
34.3%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
34.3%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Brad Earnest return for 17 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
48.5%
KUMMER, Drew pass incomplete, QB hurry by KINARD, Antonio, PENALTY MIAMI holding (BROWN, Trevan) 10 yards to the CIN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+3
46.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+14
46.1%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 14 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
48.3%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+29
50.5%
Drew Kummer pass intercepted Zach Edwards return for 29 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0061% → 65%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
38.6%
Hosey Williams run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
50
+2
34.9%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-3
34.9%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 47 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Bryson AlbrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0050% → 44%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
50.4%
Drew Kummer run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 44 Drew Kummer fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Drew KummerSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+3
47.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
46.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 10
OWN 47
-5
44.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Junior McMullen) to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
43.7%
Christian Koch punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
41.6%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
41.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+4
42.8%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
44.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
48.8%
Leonard Ross run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
51.1%
Leonard Ross run for no gain to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
47.7%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete, broken up by Adrian WittySimilar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+2
46.6%
Christian Koch punt for 54 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 35 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
45.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (Hayden Moore) to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+8
45.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-4
44.6%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 7 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Bryson AlbrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 29FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5858% → 68%
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
58.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.1%
Drew Kummer run for no gain to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.8%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
68.3%
Kaleb Patterson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 30INT
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:0041% → 46%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
59.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Chris Moore for 27 yds Chris Moore fumbled, forced by TJ Williams, recovered by Cincy Hosey Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
52.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Johnny Holton for 13 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
51.9%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
51.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+18
54.5%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Buchi Okafor return for 18 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1770% → 73%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
69.9%
Drew Kummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 16 Drew Kummer fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Drew KummerSimilar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+2
69.2%
Leonard Ross run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+1
67.6%
Leonard Ross run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
72.9%
Christian Koch punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 32TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:0131% → 93%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
69.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Shaq Washington for 14 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
65.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 18 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
61.5%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+18
61.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 18 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
61.4%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+5
61.4%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.4%
Tion Green run for no gain to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.9%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 33DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1622% → 19%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
21.6%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
20.9%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Fred McRae IVSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
20.1%
Drew Kummer pass complete to Sam Martin for 5 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
19.3%
Drew Kummer pass incomplete to Ryan Smith, broken up by Eric WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 34END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0496% → 96%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-4
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-57
TD · Q3 8:26
Drew Kummer pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
+13.7
FG · Q4 7:12
Kaleb Patterson 21 yd FG GOOD
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com