Try the model
MEM

Memphis 44 at Bowling Green 41

BGSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:52: Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 94 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:00: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 60 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +22.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:13: Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 62 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +23.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:19: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +25.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:35: Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +15.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:44MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:50MEM 4th & 13 at BGSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40BGSU 4th & 12 at MEM 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:13MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:11MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:44MEM 4th & 21 at BGSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:44BGSU 4th & 4 at MEM 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:43BGSU 4th & 17 at MEM 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:43MEM 4th & 1 at BGSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−5.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:12BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:35MEM 4th & 10 at BGSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−2.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−21.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:23BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 32, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:13MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.5%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−7.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:06BGSU 4th & 18 at BGSU 33, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:11MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:47BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:40MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:11BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:03BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:34MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:52BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:00MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:13BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:19MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1641% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
40.9%
Travis Greene run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
40.9%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+62
41.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 62 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 13 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
41.7%
Mose Frazier run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-3
41.7%
Mose Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+5
41.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 5 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+6
41.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 52 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for 6 yds to the BwGrn 47 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the BwGrn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
43.1%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+1
43.1%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
42.9%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
42.8%
Joseph Davidson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3257% → 58%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
43.4%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
43.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
43.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 11 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
43.1%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+17
41.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2443% → 48%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.8%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
42.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 1 yd to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
42.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 14 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
43.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 25 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
43.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 9 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
43.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
43.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Derek Lee for 4 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+24
43.5%
Fred Coppet run for 24 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.7%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Memph 2Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.7%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the Memph 2Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:5253% → 53%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+39
47.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 24 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
46.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 5
OPP 38
-8
46.1%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Izaah Lunsford for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+7
46.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
46.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
45.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 19 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
45.7%
Tevin Jones run for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 17
OPP 20
-4
46.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 21
OPP 24
+8
46.9%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
46.6%
Jake Elliott 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
46.7%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
46.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 7 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-3
47.0%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
45.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 53 yds, downed at the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:2753% → 59%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
47.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
47.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 1 yd to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+4
47.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
47.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
46.9%
Sam Craft run for 12 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.5%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
46.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
45.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+26
45.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 26 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
45.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
45.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 12 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
45.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
43.8%
Matt Johnson run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
45.8%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
45.5%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+13
43.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
46.2%
Matt Johnson sacked by Donald Pennington for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
45.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
44.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan Burbrink, broken up by Dion WittySimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
42.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1658% → 58%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
42.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
42.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+24
43.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 24 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
41.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
41.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
41.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
42.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds, downed at the BwGrn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 2:5041% → 57%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
41.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 3 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
41.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 6 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
40.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 2 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
41.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 8 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+29
43.4%
Matt Johnson run for 14 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
45.2%
JOHNSON, Matt pass complete to MOORE, Ronnie for no gain to the MEM43 (TERRY, D), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+9
43.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
44.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+13
42.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 13 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
46.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for 8 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+23
57.3%
Matt Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
52.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 18 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
50.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
51.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
50.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Alfonso MackSimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 1:2554% → 68%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
54.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
54.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 12 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
54.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 9 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
56.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 3 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
56.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 44 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:1035% → 35%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
64.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
64.2%
Mose Frazier run for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
65.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+11
66.2%
Nick Jacobs run for 11 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
63.5%
Sam Craft run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
62.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 15 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
61.1%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 19
OPP 32
-2
62.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 21
OPP 34
0
64.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan Cross, broken up by James SanfordSimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 21
OPP 34
+52
64.8%
Jake Elliott 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 3:0165% → 67%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
64.6%
Travis Greene run for 29 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
67.5%
Travis Greene run for 11 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
67.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
66.5%
Gehrig Dieter pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
66.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+5
64.8%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to LEWIS, Roger, PENALTY MEM offside defense 5 yards to the MEM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
66.2%
Matt Johnson run for 6 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+6
64.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
67.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Chauncey LanierSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-7
66.4%
Matt Johnson sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+48
66.6%
Tyler Tate 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0935% → 56%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
64.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
64.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
65.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
50
+2
61.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
61.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
62.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+32
63.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 32 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
59.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.1%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 0:3651% → 72%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
51.4%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+94
71.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 94 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:4631% → 53%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
68.8%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
69.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+6
72.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
70.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
69.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+60
46.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 60 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4755% → 83%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.9%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
55.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 7 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
55.5%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
58.1%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
59.2%
Matt Johnson sacked by Wynton McManis for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+62
82.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 62 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5425% → 55%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
75.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
74.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
73.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+10
74.6%
LYNCH, Paxton pass complete to JONES, Tevin for 12 yards to the BGSU47 (MACK, Alfonso), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU49, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
71.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
45.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
55.4%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
55.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Chauncey LanierSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
53.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie Moore, broken up by Chris MorleySimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
52.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:4853% → 67%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
47.9%
Sam Craft run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
45.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 34 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
43.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
43.6%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Taylor Royster for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+5
48.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
32.7%
Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1241% → 33%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.8%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie Moore, broken up by Chauncey LanierSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
39.9%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
33.4%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 67%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
29.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
29.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
28.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+2
30.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
27.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
29.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+4
30.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-3
30.9%
LYNCH, Paxton pass complete to MAYHUE, Phil for 27 yards to the BGSU40 (SANFORD, James;STEPHENS, Clint), PENALTY MEM holding 3 yards to the MEM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
31.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose Frazier MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
33.8%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to REDDING, Teo, PENALTY MEM pass interference 15 yards to the BGSU41, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
37.6%
Matt Johnson sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 16
OWN 35
-5
32.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+7
30.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 7 yds Ryan Burbrink fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by BwGrn Travis GreeneSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
30.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:1091% → 89%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
9.5%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-3
9.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 18
OPP 41
-2
11.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:19
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 48 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-25.8
TD · Q4 14:13
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 62 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
+23.6
TD · Q3 1:00
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 60 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com