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TLSA

Tulsa 40 at New Mexico 21

UNM
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.2UNM 57.5%Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q1 7:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:56 · Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.5Pregame prior+7.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:30: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 41 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:56: Redford Jones 22 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +7.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:54: Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +14.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:02: D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +16.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:40: Redford Jones 24 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +9.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:26UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56TLSA 4th & 5 at UNM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 32, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 29 at UNM 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:23UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:56TLSA 4th & 5 at UNM 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:49UNM 4th & 20 at UNM 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−3.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:26TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:14UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:00TLSA 4th & 6 at UNM 6, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:54TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:58UNM 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−12.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:57UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 2 at UNM 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−3.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:40TLSA 4th & 7 at UNM 7, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−11.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:35UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 30, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:07UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:12UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:26TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:42UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:30TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:54UNM Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:02TLSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:07TLSA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4858% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
58.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 26 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
58.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
58.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
58.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
59.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4641% → 42%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
59.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Isaiah BrownSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
58.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 69 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
58.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
58.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
58.1%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Teriyon Gipson, broken up by Matt LinscottSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
58.0%
Zack Rogers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:1842% → 43%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
58.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
58.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
58.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+31
58.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 16 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
57.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 22 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
57.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
57.6%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
57.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
57.5%
Redford Jones 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1458% → 60%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
57.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
57.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
57.3%
Zack Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
58.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Nik D'Avanzo) to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.6%
Dameon Gamblin run for 16 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Eden Mahina) to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
57.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
57.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+2
57.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
57.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
57.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+62
60.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 62 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 2:4240% → 39%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
59.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
59.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 1
50
+6
58.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
58.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+14
58.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
58.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 26Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+4
58.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
58.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for no gain to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 11
OPP 22
-5
59.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Evan Plagg) to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-13
59.6%
Dane Evans sacked by Taylor Timmons for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 29
OPP 40
0
60.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, downed at the NMex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
60.1%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+3
60.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 3 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-2
59.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
59.0%
Zack Rogers punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:4541% → 47%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.2%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
59.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
53.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 41 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
56.0%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+3
55.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+5
54.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 5 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
54.7%
Zack Rogers punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:4446% → 55%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
54.4%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
53.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+5
53.8%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
53.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
53.6%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+26
54.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 26 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
52.2%
Keevan Lucas run for 12 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
52.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Garrett Stafford) to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 16
OPP 25
+1
52.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+8
52.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 8 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+2
52.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+7
54.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
52.0%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
52.0%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
52.8%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 5Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
45.5%
Redford Jones 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
48.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-14
48.7%
JORDAN, Lamar pass incomplete to WHITE, Reece (MARTIN, Trent), PENALTY NM illegal block (GIPSON, Teriyon) 14 yards to the NM15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 22
OWN 15
+2
48.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 20
OWN 17
0
47.1%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
46.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
44.4%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-6
44.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Garrett Hughes for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
46.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
47.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Carlos Wiggins at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
46.8%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Reece WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
46.7%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Dameon Gamblin NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
45.6%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Patrick ReedSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
45.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 32 yds , Bishop Louie returns for no gain to the NMex 32 Bishop Louie fumbled, recovered by NMex Michael Walsh NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Nik D'Avanzo) to the NMex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-18
47.3%
Austin Apodaca sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 27 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Aaron Jenkins) to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 28
OWN 14
+7
46.5%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 7 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 21
OWN 21
-4
45.4%
Austin Apodaca run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:0056% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.0%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
43.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
43.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Mandel Dixon for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
41.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+11
41.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
41.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
41.0%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+12
41.0%
Zack Langer run for 12 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
41.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
41.0%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
41.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
37.4%
Redford Jones 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5840% → 58%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
39.8%
Dameon Gamblin run for 9 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
41.4%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 13 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
42.2%
Dameon Gamblin run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
43.6%
Dameon Gamblin run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+20
43.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
50.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
49.0%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
48.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
48.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Zack Langer, broken up by Dakota CoxSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
51.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 22 yds, downed at the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5153% → 52%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
53.1%
Carlos Wiggins run for 24 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
57.1%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+5
54.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 33 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (Carlos Wiggins) to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
56.5%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+18
53.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 18 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
58.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-2
58.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
56.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Marquis BundySimilar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
52.3%
Jason Sanders 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5652% → 74%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
47.8%
Zack Langer run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
45.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
46.2%
Zack Langer run for 10 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
44.8%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-5
44.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chris Wallace) to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+42
44.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 42 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
43.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
31.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 12 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
33.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-2
32.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
31.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
29.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:0373% → 74%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
27.5%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+8
27.5%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
26.8%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
27.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+26
26.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 26 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
23.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Maurice DanielsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
23.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
23.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+1
26.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
27.2%
Carlos Wiggins run for 6 yds to the NMex 42 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (Reno Henderson) to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 14
OWN 32
+8
26.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 8 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
28.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 42 Teriyon Gipson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Derrick AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:4577% → 87%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
22.6%
EVANS, Dane pass incomplete to LUCAS, Keevan, PENALTY NM personal foul (D'AVANZO, Nik) 15 yards to the NM27, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
21.7%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-1
21.7%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+13
22.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
21.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
22.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
13.3%
Redford Jones 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
15.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
16.2%
Carlos Wiggins run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
15.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
15.7%
Zack Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
16.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Carlos Wiggins for 39 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
19.8%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
19.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+14
18.2%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Keevan Lucas return for 14 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:1791% → 99%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
9.4%
Keevan Lucas run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
8.9%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
8.9%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
50
0
8.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 8
50
+27
9.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 27 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
8.8%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
8.8%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+9
6.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
5.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Maurice Daniels) to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.2%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.4%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.4%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Daryl ChestnutSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
2.3%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 8 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
2.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 1 yd to the NMex 44Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-2
2.4%
Daryl Chestnut run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 38 Daryl Chestnut fumbled, forced by Trent Martin,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
1.0%
Zack Langer run for 10 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
1.0%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
1.0%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
1.0%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:02
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q3 9:54
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+14.8
FG · Q4 10:40
Redford Jones 24 yd FG GOOD
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com