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FAMU

Florida A&M 3 at South Florida 51

USF
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadFAMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreFAMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:27 · Gerald Hearns run for 3 yds to the FlaAM 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:00: Emilio Nadelman 22 yd FG GOOD — FAMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:36: SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (Quinton Flowers) to the FlaAM 22 — FAMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:16: D'Ernest Johnson 45 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +8.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:04: Quinton Flowers 29 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:51: Elkanah Dillon 62 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +3.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FAMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00FAMU 4th & 16 at FAMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:09USF 4th & 3 at FAMU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:54FAMU 4th & 5 at FAMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50FAMU 4th & 15 at FAMU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:00USF 4th & 4 at FAMU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:00FAMU 4th & 11 at FAMU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:18FAMU 4th & 4 at FAMU 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:21USF 4th & 5 at FAMU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:19FAMU 4th & 7 at FAMU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:57USF 4th & 23 at USF 23, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:04FAMU 4th & 14 at FAMU 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:44FAMU 4th & 15 at FAMU 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:43FAMU 4th & 10 at FAMU 36, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:29FAMU 4th & 4 at USF 4, down 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:29USF 4th & 27 at USF 18, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:04FAMU 4th & 2 at USF 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 17 at USF 36, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:29USF 4th & 5 at USF 22, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:12FAMU 4th & 3 at USF 30, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:53FAMU 4th & 9 at FAMU 18, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 1:16USF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:04USF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:51USF Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:47USF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:58USF Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:29USF Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.6%
Carson Royal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
74.6%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (-5 Yards) to the FlaAM 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+7
74.6%
Carson Royal pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 7 yds to the FlaAM 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-8
74.6%
Carson Royal sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaAM 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
74.6%
Colby Blanton punt for 30 yds, downed at the SFla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
74.4%
Marlon Mack run for 17 yds to the FlaAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
74.4%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the FlaAM 28Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+2
74.5%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the FlaAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
74.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 8 yds to the FlaAM 18Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
74.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the FlaAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
74.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the FlaAM 12Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+1
74.5%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the FlaAM 11Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
74.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for 3 yds to the FlaAM 8Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+2
74.4%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the FlaAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
73.6%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 6 yds to the FlaAM 12Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-1
73.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaAM 11Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
73.7%
Carson Royal pass complete to Kareem Smith for no gain to the FlaAM 11Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 5
OWN 11
+19
73.8%
Colby Blanton punt for 49 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 19 yds to the FlaAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
73.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaAM 46Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
73.5%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Jacques Bryant return for no gain to the FlaAM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
73.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaAM 6Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+6
73.0%
Carson Royal pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 6 yds to the FlaAM 12Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-6
73.2%
ROYAL,Carson pass complete to NORWOOD,Brandon for 23 yards to the FAMU35 (ABRAHAM, Devin), PENALTY FAMU holding 6 yards to the FAMU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 11
OWN 6
-3
73.2%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, delay of game (Carson Royal) to the FlaAM 3Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 14
OWN 3
-1
73.2%
Gerald Hearns run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaAM 2Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 15
OWN 2
+5
73.4%
Colby Blanton punt for 46 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 5 yds to the FlaAM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5973% → 73%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
73.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the FlaAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
73.4%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the FlaAM 22Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+1
73.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 1 yd to the FlaAM 21Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+7
73.1%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the FlaAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
73.4%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jacques Bryant) to the FlaAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
73.3%
MACK, Marlon rush for 7 yards to the FAMU0, clock 03:34, PENALTY USF unsportsmanlike conduct (MACK, Marlon) 11 yards to the FAMU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+6
73.2%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the FlaAM 12Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
73.2%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the FlaAM 5Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
72.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaAM 4Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
72.8%
Emilio Nadelman 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
Carson Royal pass incomplete to Brandon NorwoodSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.8%
Gerald Hearns run for 1 yd to the FlaAM 26Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
73.1%
Carson Royal sacked by Daniel Awoleke for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaAM 24Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
73.6%
Colby Blanton punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5572% → 71%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.3%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 28 Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.6%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
71.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for 1 yd to the FlaAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.3%
DeVondrick Nealy run for no gain to the FlaAM 21Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
72.4%
Carson Royal pass complete DeVondrick Nealy run for no gain to the FlaAM 21Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+2
72.7%
Carson Royal run for 2 yds to the FlaAM 27Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
72.4%
Carson Royal pass complete to Kareem Smith for 4 yds to the FlaAM 25Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
73.1%
Colby Blanton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:4572% → 72%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
72.3%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.2%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the FlaAM 46Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
72.2%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to ADAMS, Rodney, PENALTY FAMU pass interference (BROWN,Braxton) 15 yards to the FAMU46, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
73.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
72.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the FlaAM 41Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+13
72.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 13 yds to the FlaAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
73.5%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the FlaAM 18Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
73.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 12 yds to the FlaAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
73.5%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the FlaAM 27Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+9
73.5%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the FlaAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
73.4%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass complete to BARR, Chris for 6 yards to the FAMU0, clock 08:22, PENALTY USF illegal block (ADAMS, Rodney) 10 yards to the FAMU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
0
73.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+9
73.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the FlaAM 7Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
73.3%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for 7 yards to the FAMU0, clock 07:36, PENALTY USF holding (JOZWIAK, Thor) 10 yards to the FAMU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-5
72.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (Quinton Flowers) to the FlaAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.9%
Carson Royal pass incomplete to Brandon NorwoodSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
78.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 1 yd to the FlaAM 23Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+2
78.6%
Carson Royal pass complete to Kareem Smith for 2 yds to the FlaAM 25Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Colby Blanton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
78.6%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 23 Marlon Mack fumbled, recovered by SFla Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 23
OWN 23
0
77.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 23
OWN 23
0
77.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for no gain to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 23
OWN 23
0
76.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeVondrick Nealy at the FlaAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3122% → 20%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
77.9%
Carson Royal pass complete to Desmond Noird for 16 yds to the FlaAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
76.9%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaAM 48Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
77.4%
Kareem Smith run for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-7
77.5%
Carson Royal sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaAM 45Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
79.8%
Colby Blanton punt for 40 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for no gain to the SFla 12 Tajee Fullwood fumbled, recovered by SFla Tajee FullwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:0380% → 89%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
79.9%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
80.1%
Marlon Mack run for 16 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
81.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 14 yds to the FlaAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
88.8%
D'Ernest Johnson 45 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:2615% → 14%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
85.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaAM 29 FLORIDA A&M Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 14
OWN 29
-1
86.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaAM 28Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
85.6%
DeVondrick Nealy run for no gain to the FlaAM 28Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
85.8%
Colby Blanton punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
89.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 8 yds to the FlaAM 49Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+10
89.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Sean Price for 10 yds to the FlaAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
89.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 14 yds to the FlaAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 0:5187% → 95%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
87.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+32
87.6%
Marlon Mack run for 32 yds to the FlaAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
87.2%
NADELMAN, Emili kickoff 65 yards to the FAMU0, NEALY,Devondric return to the FAMU17 (FERGUSON, Nate), PENALTY FAMU holding off-setting, PENALTY USF illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
94.9%
Quinton Flowers 29 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 1:126% → 6%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.7%
Gerald Hearns run for 2 yds to the FlaAM 27Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-6
93.6%
Gerald Hearns run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaAM 21Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
93.9%
COLEMAN,Kenneth pass incomplete to NORWOOD,Brandon, PENALTY USF personal foul (FULLWODD, Tajee) 15 yards to the FAMU36, 1ST DOWN FAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
94.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaAM 25 DeVondrick Nealy fumbled, forced by Eric Lee, recovered by FlaAM DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 21
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Kareem Smith, broken up by Eric LeeSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 21
OWN 25
-5
94.5%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, false start (Patrick Dalton) to the FlaAM 20Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 26
OWN 20
+16
94.5%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 16 yds to the FlaAM 36Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
94.5%
Colby Blanton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:3796% → 100%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
95.8%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-3
95.8%
Steven Bench sacked by Trevor Bone and Elijah Price for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+16
95.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 16 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
96.0%
MACK, Marlon rush for 7 yards to the 50 yardline (BONE,Trevor), PENALTY USF holding (JOZWIAK, Thor) 10 yards to the USF33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+5
95.8%
Steven Bench run for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+62
99.5%
Elkanah Dillon 62 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 20FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 4:221% → 1%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 4 yds to the FlaAM 29Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Jairockeis Jones, broken up by Jamie ByrdSimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 12 yds to the FlaAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Jairockeis Jones for 7 yds to the FlaAM 48Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Kareem SmithSimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
99.2%
NEALY,Devondric rush for loss of 4 yards to the FAMU44 (HECTOR, Bruce;AWOLEKE, Daniel), PENALTY USF offside defense (HILL, Demetrius) 5 yards to the USF47, 1ST DOWN FAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Jairockeis JonesSimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+29
99.3%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 29 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.2%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Kareem SmithSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.2%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Kenyan Foster for 3 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Nate Godwin) to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd to the SFla 5Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.1%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Brandon NorwoodSimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.2%
Kenneth Coleman run for 1 yd to the SFla 4Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.1%
Colby Blanton 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Marlon MackSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 30
OWN 15
+6
99.6%
Steven Bench pass complete to Marlon Mack for 6 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 24
OWN 21
-3
99.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Chris Barr for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 27
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.7%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, delay of game (Kenneth Coleman) to the FlaAM 36Similar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Brandon NorwoodSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-3
99.7%
Gerald Hearns run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaAM 33Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+27
99.7%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Montavious Williams for 27 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
DeVondrick Nealy run for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Brandon Norwood, broken up by Demetrius HillSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.7%
Kenneth Coleman run for 8 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Jairockeis JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.8%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
99.8%
Steven Bench run for 3 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.8%
Steven Bench pass complete to A.J. Legree for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-5
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Steven BenchSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 36
+7
99.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 53 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for 7 yds to the FlaAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass intercepted Tajee Fullwood return for no gain to the FlaAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
99.9%
Steven Bench pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 28 yds to the FlaAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the FlaAM 1Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Marlon Mack 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 26INT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Brandon NorwoodSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Jairockeis Jones for 5 yds to the FlaAM 20Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman run for 9 yds to the FlaAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Kareem Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaAM 28Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 3 yds to the FlaAM 31Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+17
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 17 yds to the FlaAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Brandon NorwoodSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, false start (Ryan Templeton) to the FlaAM 46Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass intercepted Jalen Spencer return for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 44 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Marlon PopeSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.9%
Steven Bench pass complete to A.J. Legree for 5 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+11
99.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 47 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for 11 yds to the FlaAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 5 yds to the FlaAM 47Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
100.0%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 6 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
100.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-5
100.0%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, false start (Gerald Harrison) to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+9
100.0%
Kenneth Coleman run for 9 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
100.0%
Kenneth Coleman run for 3 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Desmond Noird, broken up by Demetrius HillSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-7
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman sacked by Demetrius Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
100.0%
Darius Tice run for 23 yds to the FlaAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
100.0%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the FlaAM 37Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+22
100.0%
Steven Bench pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 22 yds to the FlaAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Steven Bench 15 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
100.0%
Gerald Hearns run for no gain to the FlaAM 17Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
100.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 1 yd to the FlaAM 18Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Michael Morris, broken up by Nick HolmanSimilar
Q4 2:53
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+6
100.0%
Colby Blanton punt for 41 yds , Jordan Reed returns for 6 yds to the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
100.0%
Darius Tice run for 44 yds to the FlaAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
TICE, Darius rush for no gain to the FAMU9 (ALEXANDER,Curti), PENALTY FAMU personal foul (BRADY,Melvin) 5 yards to the FAMU4, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
100.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the FlaAM 2Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Darius Tice 2 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 3 yds to the FlaAM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:16
D'Ernest Johnson 45 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+8.4
TD · Q3 14:04
Quinton Flowers 29 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+7.8
TD · Q3 8:51
Elkanah Dillon 62 Yd pass from Steven Bench (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com