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COLG

Colgate 10 at Navy 48

NAVY
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadCOLG aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreCOLG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+34.2Score differential+28.2Pregame prior+5.4Blowout margin+14.8Garbage-time factor+9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:11: Jonah Bowman 24 yd FG GOOD — COLG win probability +1.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:30: Chris Swain run for 52 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:53: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:10: Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:04: Quentin Ezell run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5COLG made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:28COLG 4th & 1 at NAVY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11COLG 4th & 6 at NAVY 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00NAVY 4th & 9 at COLG 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00COLG 4th & 8 at COLG 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:12COLG 4th & 6 at COLG 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:53COLG 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39NAVY 4th & 1 at COLG 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−2.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−9.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:10COLG 4th & 10 at COLG 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00COLG 4th & 14 at COLG 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:02NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:28COLG 4th & 1 at NAVY 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00COLG 4th & 1 at NAVY 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:22NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 36, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:05COLG 4th & 6 at COLG 15, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:46NAVY 4th & 12 at COLG 21, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    100.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6COLG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:30NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:53NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:10NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:04NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:34NAVY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:22COLG Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:05NAVY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
71.5%
Chris Swain run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 10
0
71.5%
Demond Brown run for no gain to the Navy 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 10
-5
71.5%
REYNOLDS, K pass complete to ROMINE, Dishan for 20 yards to the NAVY30 (Morgan,Chris), PENALTY NAVY HL (SWAIN, Chris) 5 yards to the NAVY5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 5
+17
71.5%
Chris Swain run for 17 yds to the Navy 23 Chris Swain fumbled, forced by Kyle Diener, recovered by Colg Keyon WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 2FG
10 plays · 16 yds · 5:1729% → 30%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
71.1%
Jake Melville run for 7 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
71.1%
John Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
71.1%
James Holland run for 1 yd to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
71.2%
James Holland run for 3 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
71.1%
Melville,Jake rush for 10 yards to the NAVY1 (THOMAS, Micah), PENALTY COLGATE HL (Dalmau,Jordi) 10 yards to the NAVY21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+12
71.1%
Jake Melville pass complete to Alex Greenawalt for 12 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
71.1%
Jake Melville run for 6 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
71.1%
Jake Melville run for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-5
71.2%
COLGATE Penalty, DL (-5 Yards) to the Navy 7Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
69.6%
Jonah Bowman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:1170% → 70%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
69.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 18 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.2%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+14
70.3%
Dishan Romine run for 14 yds to the Colg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
70.4%
Chris Swain run for 15 yds to the Colg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
70.6%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 8 yds to the Colg 14 for a 1ST down COLGATE Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Buttermore) to the Colg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
70.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Colg 4Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
70.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 5 yards to the Colg 9Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
70.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Chris SwainSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
69.9%
Austin Grebe 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.4%
Jake Melville run for no gain to the Colg 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
69.5%
James Holland run for 2 yds to the Colg 31Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
69.7%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Connor Wingenroth, broken up by Elijah MerchantSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+12
70.0%
Nikko Armiento punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4470% → 73%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
50
-2
70.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
69.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+52
73.0%
Chris Swain run for 52 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:1827% → 27%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
72.9%
Jake Melville run for 7 yds to the Colg 13Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 13
0
72.8%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John MaddalunaSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+6
73.2%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Maddaluna for 6 yds to the Colg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
72.7%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Quazza for a loss of 2 yards to the Colg 17Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
72.9%
Jake Melville pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-5
73.3%
COLGATE Penalty, false start (Ryan Paulish) to the Colg 12Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+11
73.3%
Jake Melville pass complete to Alex Greenawalt for 11 yds to the Colg 23Similar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+64
73.4%
Nikko Armiento punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the NAVY 27 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Navy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:1973% → 80%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
72.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+46
73.0%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 46 yds to the Colg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
74.3%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Colg 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+18
74.3%
Chris Swain run for 18 yds to the Colg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.3%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Colg 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Colg 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
72.8%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.6%
James Holland run for 3 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
77.2%
Jake Melville pass complete to Alex Greenawalt for 6 yds to the Colg 34Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
77.1%
Jake Melville run for 7 yds to the Colg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.0%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John Wilkins, broken up by Amos MasonSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
77.1%
Demetrius Russell run for 5 yds to the Colg 46Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
76.8%
Demetrius Russell run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 1
50
0
76.7%
Demetrius Russell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:2981% → 92%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
80.9%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the Colg 44Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
81.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Colg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
81.0%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 17 yds to the Colg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
81.0%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Colg 19Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
81.0%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Colg 15Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
80.6%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the Colg 12Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
80.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Colg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
81.0%
Dishan Romine run for 4 yds to the Colg 6Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.2%
Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
90.3%
Demetrius Russell run for 3 yds to the Colg 29Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
89.7%
Jake Melville pass complete to James Holland for 8 yds to the Colg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John MaddalunaSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+12
90.4%
Nikko Armiento punt for 47 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 12 yds to the Navy 49 COLGATE Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3393% → 97%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
93.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 44 yds to the Colg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.0%
Quentin Ezell run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.4%
James Holland run for 3 yds to the Colg 23Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
97.4%
Jake Melville run for 3 yds to the Colg 26Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
97.2%
Demetrius Russell run for 8 yds to the Colg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.3%
Jake Melville pass complete to Cameron Kline for 12 yds to the Colg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
97.1%
Demetrius Russell run for 18 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.4%
James Holland run for 3 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.3%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Cameron Kline, broken up by Will AnthonySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
97.4%
Jake Melville pass complete to Alex Greenawalt for 10 yds to the Colg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
97.3%
Demetrius Russell run for 8 yds to the Colg 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
96.9%
Jake Melville run for 1 yd to the Colg 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
96.9%
John Wilkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
97.2%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to John Maddaluna, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-4
97.2%
Jake Melville run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colg 46 Jake Melville fumbled, recovered by Colg Jake MelvilleSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Cameron Kline, broken up by Daniel GonzalesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+14
97.5%
Nikko Armiento punt for 38 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 14 yds to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.0%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Victor Steffen for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Alex Barta punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
98.9%
Demetrius Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 33 Demetrius Russell fumbled, forced by Kevin McCoy, recovered by Navy Patrick ForrestalSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.0%
Jake Melville pass complete to Alex Greenawalt for 9 yds to the Colg 29Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
98.9%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
99.0%
John Wilkins run for 27 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
99.0%
James Holland run for 4 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
98.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to Connor Wingenroth for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
98.9%
James Holland run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
98.4%
Jake Melville run for 2 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
99.5%
Quentin Ezell run for 6 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
99.6%
Toneo Gulley run for 21 yds to the Colg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.6%
Shawn White run for 5 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
99.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Colg 25Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
99.5%
Shawn White run for 5 yds to the Colg 20 Shawn White fumbled, forced by Keyon Washington, recovered by Navy Shawn White for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Colg 12Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
99.7%
Quentin Ezell 12 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:120% → 0%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
John Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Colg 32Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.7%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 34Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.7%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
James Holland run for 4 yds to the Colg 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
99.8%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Maddaluna for 8 yds to the Colg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.8%
John Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
99.7%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
99.7%
John Wilkins run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
99.7%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Connor WingenrothSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
99.8%
Demetrius Russell run for 16 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.7%
Demetrius Russell run for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
99.8%
John Quazza 24 Yd pass from Jake Melville (Jonah Bowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.8%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Gavin Jernigan punt for 42 yds, downed at the Colg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
John Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Colg 28Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
John Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Colg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 34Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+14
99.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Maddaluna for 14 yds to the Colg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.9%
Jake Melville pass complete to John Maddaluna for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jake Melville pass incomplete to Alex GreenawaltSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-54
99.9%
Kevin McCoy 54 Yd Fumble Return (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
COLGATE Penalty, roughing the kicker (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.9%
John Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Colg 13Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Bret Mooney run for 2 yds to the Colg 15Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Bret Mooney pass incomplete to Demetrius RussellSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+12
99.9%
Nikko Armiento punt for 43 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 12 yds to the Colg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.9%
Joshua Walker run for 15 yds to the Colg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.9%
Tago Smith run for 12 yds to the Colg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.9%
Tago Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colg 20Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-16
99.9%
Tago Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colg 21 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Colg 36Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 27
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the Colg 30Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 21
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
Tago Smith run for 9 yds to the Colg 21Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
100.0%
Nick Sloan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
100.0%
Bret Mooney run for 8 yds to the Colg 37Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Demetrius Russell run for 3 yds to the Colg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:10
Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 11:53
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 2:04
Quentin Ezell run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com