Try the model
MOST

Missouri State 7 at Memphis 63

MEM
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:31 · Spencer Smith punt for 50 yds , Deion Holliman returns for 16 yds to the MoSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense+18.3Score differential+8.7Pregame prior+16.3Blowout margin+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Garbage-time factor+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:22: Phil Mayhue pass complete to Mose Frazier for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:26: Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:38: Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK), (Jake Elliott KICK) — MOST win probability +1.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:32: Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:23: Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MOST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:07MOST 4th & 12 at MOST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28MOST 4th & 5 at MOST 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28MOST 4th & 7 at MOST 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38MOST 4th & 16 at MEM 34, down 35
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:31MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 28, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12MOST 4th & 18 at MOST 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:32MOST 4th & 2 at MOST 33, down 42
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MEM 4th & 2 at MOST 32, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00MOST 4th & 13 at MOST 33, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:46MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 46, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 25, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:28MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 42, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:06MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 15, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MOST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:07MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:22MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:26MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:38MEM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:32MEM Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:23MEM Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:24MOST Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:53MEM Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:42MEM Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.9%
Calan Crowder run for 5 yds to the MoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
74.9%
Calan Crowder run for 2 yds to the MoSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
74.9%
Breck Ruddick run for a loss of 7 yards to the MoSt 25 Breck Ruddick fumbled, recovered by Memph Jackson DillonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5975% → 75%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
74.8%
Sam Craft run for 15 yds to the MoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
74.8%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the MoSt 5Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
75.0%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Malik Earl for 6 yards to the MSU31 (NELSON, D), PENALTY MSU holding (Richard Darden) 10 yards to the MSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
75.0%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Malik Earl for 5 yds to the MoSt 20Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
75.0%
Breck Ruddick run for 1 yd to the MoSt 21Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
75.1%
Breck Ruddick run for 2 yds to the MoSt 23Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
75.1%
Chris Sullens punt for 48 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 5 yds to the Memph 28 MEMPHIS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0875% → 77%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
75.2%
Sam Craft run for 10 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
75.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
75.4%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
76.8%
Phil Mayhue pass complete to Mose Frazier for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.4%
Ryan Heaston run for 11 yds to the MoSt 36 Ryan Heaston fumbled, forced by Dion Witty, recovered by Memph Wynton McManisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4877% → 80%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
77.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the MoSt 29Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+20
77.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 20 yds to the MoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
77.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the MoSt 7Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
77.0%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the MoSt 2Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.7%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to LeMarcus Stewart for 4 yds to the MoSt 29Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
79.6%
Ryan Heaston run for 2 yds to the MoSt 31Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.7%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to LeMarcus StewartSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+16
79.8%
Chris Sullens punt for 53 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 16 yds to the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
80.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 6 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
80.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
80.8%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+3
80.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
80.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
80.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 9PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0018% → 13%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.7%
Phoenix Johnson run for no gain to the MoSt 20Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.7%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Phoenix Johnson for 5 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to Phoenix Johnson, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+63
87.5%
Chris Sullens punt for 38 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for 63 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
87.6%
Breck Ruddick run for a loss of 4 yards to the MoSt 21 Breck Ruddick fumbled, recovered by MoSt Breck RuddickSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
88.0%
Jason Randall run for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 20Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
88.0%
Breck Ruddick run for 8 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.7%
Chris Sullens punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3989% → 91%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
89.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+11
88.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 11 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
89.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the MoSt 47Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
89.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 6 yds to the MoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
89.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the MoSt 37 for a 1ST down MISSOURI ST Penalty, personal foul (James Barnes) to the MoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
92.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the MoSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
91.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the MoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
92.2%
Anthony Miller run for 5 yds to the MoSt 4Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK), (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 0:006% → 9%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.6%
Calan Crowder run for 1 yd to the MoSt 26Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
93.7%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to LeMarcus Stewart for 2 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
93.7%
Breck Ruddick run for 14 yds to the MoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
93.4%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to LeMarcus Stewart for 17 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
93.3%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to LeMarcus StewartSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+17
93.3%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Calan Crowder for 2 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Donald Pennington) to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
92.9%
Ryan Heaston run for 3 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-22
92.9%
Team run for a loss of 22 yards to the Memph 43 Team fumbled,Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 29
OPP 43
+15
93.7%
Breck Ruddick pass intercepted by NELSON, D at the MEM0, NELSON, D return to the MEM0, PENALTY MEM roughing passer (HUNTER, Ricky) 15 yards to the MEM28, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
92.9%
Ryan Heaston run for no gain to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
93.1%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete, broken up by Dion WittySimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-6
93.3%
Breck Ruddick sacked by Latarius Brady for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 16
OPP 34
0
91.5%
Chris Sullens punt for 28 yds, downed at the Memph 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
92.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+12
92.7%
Sam Craft run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
92.6%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+3
92.6%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+6
92.5%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+16
92.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 50 yds , Deion Holliman returns for 16 yds to the MoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
97.2%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Zac Hoover for 10 yds to the MoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.1%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to Calan CrowderSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-8
97.2%
Breck Ruddick run for a loss of 8 yards to the MoSt 40Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 18
OWN 40
0
97.3%
Breck Ruddick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
97.3%
Chris Sullens punt for 27 yds, downed at the Memph 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1797% → 99%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+32
97.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 32 yds to the MoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the MoSt 32Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
97.2%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the MoSt 31Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+16
97.1%
Sam Craft run for 16 yds to the MoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
97.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 12 yds to the MoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the MoSt 1Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.2%
Breck Ruddick run for 8 yds to the MoSt 33Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
98.1%
Breck Ruddick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
98.2%
Breck Ruddick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.1%
Chris Sullens punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
98.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 9 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-10
98.5%
COOPER, Jarvis rush for 5 yards to the MEM29 (Chris Hoffmann), PENALTY MEM holding (MONTIEL, Daniel) 10 yards to the MEM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+10
98.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 10 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
98.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
98.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 9 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:3799% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
98.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+17
98.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Mose Frazier for 17 yds to the MoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
98.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the MoSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
98.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+2
98.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the MoSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+4
98.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the MoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
98.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Mose Frazier for 12 yds to the MoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the MoSt 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
98.9%
Clay Holgorsen run for 3 yds to the MoSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
98.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds to the MoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:590% → 1%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.6%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Zac Hoover for 28 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.5%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Malik Earl for 9 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
99.5%
Calan Crowder run for 3 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
99.5%
Calan Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+5
99.6%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Ryan Heaston for 5 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+15
99.5%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to Ryan Heaston, PENALTY MEM targeting (HUNTER, Ricky) 15 yards to the MEM17, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.5%
Maddy Johnson run for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to Zac HooverSimilar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+9
99.5%
Calan Crowder run for 9 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.4%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to LeMrcus Stewart, PENALTY MEM roughing passer (AVERY, Genard) 2 yards to the MEM2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Malik Earl for 2 yds for a TD, (Shelby Harris KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.5%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Greg McKillion for 17 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
99.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 26 yds to the MoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the MoSt 30Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
99.6%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 9 yds to the MoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.6%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Greg McKillion for 5 yds to the MoSt 16Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
99.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 4 yds to the MoSt 12Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+11
99.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for 11 yds to the MoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for no gain to the MoSt 1Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
99.6%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MoSt 4Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jae'lon Oglesby for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to LeMarcus Stewart for no gain to the MoSt 36Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
99.9%
Breck Ruddick run for a loss of 3 yards to the MoSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Breck Ruddick pass incomplete to LeMarcus StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Chris Sullens punt for 36 yds, downed at the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+13
99.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for 13 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+1
99.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Jamarius Henderson run for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Deion Holliman at the MoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
Phoenix Johnson rush for 6 yards to the MSU24 (HARDEN, Lenard), PENALTY MEM offside defense (AKINS, Curtis) 5 yards to the MSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 5
OWN 23
-5
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the MoSt 18 Team fumbled, recovered by MoSt Breck RuddickSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Phoenix Johnson run for 1 yd to the MoSt 19Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Maddy Johnson for 6 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Chris Sullens punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jackson DillonSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Darius Lee run for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deion Holliman at the MoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
99.9%
Jason Randall run for 1 yd to the MoSt 14Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Breck Ruddick pass complete to Malik Earl for 6 yds to the MoSt 20Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Jason Randall run for 1 yd to the MoSt 21 Jason Randall fumbled, forced by Michael Edwards, recovered by Memph B.J. RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.9%
Jamarius Henderson run for 2 yds to the MoSt 19 for a 1ST down MISSOURI ST Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Dylan Cole) to the MoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
100.0%
Jamarius Henderson run for 3 yds to the MoSt 6Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Jamarius Henderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Cedric Miller run for no gain to the MoSt 9Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Cedric Miller run for no gain to the MoSt 9Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+6
100.0%
Brodie Lambert pass complete to Zac Hoover for 6 yds to the MoSt 15Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Chris Sullens punt for 36 yds, downed at the Memph 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
100.0%
Tearris Wallace run for 6 yds to the MoSt 45Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
100.0%
Tearris Wallace run for 1 yd to the MoSt 44Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Tearris Wallace run for 5 yds to the MoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 8:26
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q1 10:22
Phil Mayhue pass complete to Mose Frazier for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 2:32
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com