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TNTC

Tennessee Tech 24 at Houston 52

HOU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTNTC aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTNTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:27 · Logan Piper punt for 37 yds, downed at the TnTch 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior+7.2Home team on offense+36.2Score differential+27.4Garbage-time factor+15.1Blowout margin+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:18: John Arnold 28 yd FG GOOD — TNTC win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TNTC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:16: Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 71 yds for a TD, (John Arnold KICK) — TNTC win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TNTC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:43: Greg Ward Jr. run for 41 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:14: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kyle Postma for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Javin Webb run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TNTC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TNTC 4th & 6 at TNTC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:18TNTC 4th & 11 at HOU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:49TNTC 4th & 18 at TNTC 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:36TNTC 4th & 9 at TNTC 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:43HOU 4th & 1 at TNTC 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:43TNTC 4th & 1 at TNTC 28, down 11
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:36HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 23, up 11
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:46TNTC 4th & 12 at TNTC 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:53HOU 4th & 9 at TNTC 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:22TNTC 4th & 22 at TNTC 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:14TNTC 4th & 2 at HOU 48, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:01HOU 4th & 6 at TNTC 19, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49TNTC 4th & 16 at TNTC 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:40HOU 4th & 1 at TNTC 1, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:32HOU 4th & 1 at TNTC 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:56TNTC 4th & 4 at TNTC 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:27HOU 4th & 8 at TNTC 39, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TNTC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:49HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:36HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:16TNTC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:43HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:14HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:40HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:32TNTC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:56HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:02TNTC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TNTCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.6%
Ladarius Vanlier run for a loss of 1 yard to the TnTch 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
98.6%
Jared Davis pass complete to Krys Cates for 5 yds to the TnTch 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Jared Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+22
98.6%
Jonathan King punt for 49 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 22 yds to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:3999% → 98%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
50
+4
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the TnTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 49 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+12
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 12 yds to the TnTch 39Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-5
98.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TnTch 44Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+19
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 19 yds to the TnTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
98.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 21 yds to the TnTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the TnTch 1Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 3FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:312% → 2%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Jared Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.3%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 1 yd to the TnTch 36Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+14
98.3%
Jared Davis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
50
+46
98.3%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 46 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
98.2%
TENNESSEE TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.2%
Ladarius Vanlier run for no gain to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
98.2%
Brock McCoin run for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
98.3%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 9 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
97.8%
John Arnold 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
97.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
97.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+3
97.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+3
97.8%
Logan Piper punt for 44 yds , Ladarius Vanlier returns for 3 yds to the TnTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-12
97.6%
Jared Davis sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 12 yards to the TnTch 9Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 22
OWN 9
-2
97.7%
Ladarius Vanlier run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnTch 7Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 24
OWN 7
+6
97.7%
Jared Davis run for 6 yds to the TnTch 13Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 18
OWN 13
0
97.7%
Jonathan King punt for 55 yds, downed at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:1097% → 98%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
97.4%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
97.4%
Demarcus Ayers run for 4 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+8
97.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+39
97.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 39 yds to the TnTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
97.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the TnTch 7Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
97.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the TnTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Jared Davis run for 3 yds to the TnTch 28Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
97.5%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for a loss of 2 yards to the TnTch 26Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.5%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Jordan SmithSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-2
97.6%
Jonathan King punt for 49 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24 HOUSTON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3698% → 97%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-4
97.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 4 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 4
+1
97.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+10
97.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 10 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Logan Piper punt for 56 yds , Ladarius Vanlier returns for no gain to the TnTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 9TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
96.3%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 71 yds for a TD, (John Arnold KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3397% → 97%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
50
+4
96.5%
Demarcus Ayers run for 4 yds to the TnTch 46Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
96.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds to the TnTch 43Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
96.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the TnTch 41Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
97.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 41 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
96.9%
TENNESSEE TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TnTch 14Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+7
96.9%
Ladarius Vanlier run for 7 yds to the TnTch 21Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
96.9%
Jared Davis pass complete to Dametris Watson for 6 yds to the TnTch 27Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
96.9%
Ladarius Vanlier run for 1 yd to the TnTch 28Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
97.0%
Jonathan King punt for 58 yds, downed at the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
96.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
96.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Tyler McCloskey, broken up by Chris McElderrySimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+8
96.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Houst 23 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
96.7%
Logan Piper punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ladarius Vanlier at the TnTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:554% → 3%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
96.5%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Brock McCoin, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
96.6%
Ladarius Vanlier run for a loss of 3 yards to the TnTch 30Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+1
96.9%
Radir Annoor run for 1 yd to the TnTch 31Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+61
96.9%
Jonathan King punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the HOUSTON 16 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding (8 Yards) to the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FG
17 plays · 83 yds · 6:0997% → 97%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
96.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
96.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+39
96.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 39 yds to the TnTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
96.9%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jay Rudwall for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+7
96.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the TnTch 46Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
96.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 10 yds to the TnTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the TnTch 30Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+12
97.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the TnTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
97.0%
TENNESSEE TECH Penalty, (5 Yards) to the TnTch 13Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 5
OPP 13
+3
97.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the TnTch 10Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+6
97.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the TnTch 3 Kenneth Farrow fumbled, forced by Stephen Bush, recovered by Houst Ben Dew for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
97.0%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnTch 5Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
96.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Colton Freeman) to the TnTch 10Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
96.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the TnTch 9Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance Allen, broken up by Maleek HallSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
97.0%
Kyle Bullard 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
96.7%
Ladarius Vanlier run for 2 yds to the TnTch 38Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
96.6%
Radir Annoor run for 1 yd to the TnTch 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
96.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+24
96.9%
Demarcus Ayers run for 24 yds to the TnTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the TnTch 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-4
96.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for a loss of 4 yards Demarcus Ayers fumbled, forced by Stephen Bush, recovered by TnTch Terrell RollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
96.3%
Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the TnTch 26Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+1
96.5%
Ladarius Vanlier run for 1 yd to the TnTch 27Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 19
OWN 27
-3
96.5%
Jared Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the TnTch 24Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+5
96.6%
Jonathan King punt for 46 yds , Demarcus Ayers returns for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1397% → 99%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
96.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 10 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
96.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds to the TnTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
96.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the TnTch 40Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+16
96.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the TnTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Tyler McCloskey) to the TnTch 29Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+29
98.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kyle Postma for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
98.6%
Willie Davis run for 2 yds to the TnTch 18Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
98.7%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 11 yds to the TnTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
98.6%
Jared Davis pass complete to Cooper Jackson for 9 yds to the TnTch 38Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Krys CatesSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
98.6%
Willie Davis run for 6 yds to the TnTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.6%
Willie Davis run for 5 yds to the TnTch 49Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
98.6%
Ladarius Vanlier run for 3 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
98.6%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Austin Hicks, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
98.6%
Jonathan King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 69 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+12
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 12 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+37
98.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 37 yds to the TnTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
98.9%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the TnTch 28 Team fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 15
OPP 28
-6
98.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete HOUSTON Penalty, intentional grounding (Greg Ward Jr.) to the TnTch 34Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+15
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 15 yds to the TnTch 19Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 6
OPP 19
0
98.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
98.8%
Jared Davis sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 9 yards to the TnTch 10Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 19
OWN 10
0
98.9%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Brock McCoin, broken up by Howard WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+3
98.9%
Willie Davis run for 3 yds to the TnTch 13Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Jonathan King punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2999% → 100%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the TnTch 44Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+15
99.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kyle Postma for 15 yds to the TnTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
99.2%
Demarcus Ayers run for 12 yds to the TnTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the TnTch 14Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Javin Webb run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 23INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Ladarius Vanlier run for no gain to the TnTch 25Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Jared Davis pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for 11 yds to the TnTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
Q4 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the TnTch 8Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass incomplete to William Jackson IIISimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Linell Bonner for 7 yds to the TnTch 1Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Adam Schulz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 25TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:080% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
Jared Davis pass complete to Steve Wilson for 5 yds to the TnTch 23Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Willie Davis run for 2 yds to the TnTch 25Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jared Davis pass complete to Steve Wilson for 3 yds to the TnTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Jared Davis pass complete to Jordan Smith for 6 yds to the TnTch 34Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Jordan SmithSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+47
99.9%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 47 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Radir Annoor run for 4 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Radir Annoor run for 13 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Radir Annoor run for no gain to the Houst 2Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Willie Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Arnold KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Tyreik Gray for 8 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+16
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Tyreik Gray for 16 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
99.9%
Tyreik Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Adam Schulz run for 11 yds to the TnTch 48Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+33
99.9%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Kyle Postma for 33 yds to the TnTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
100.0%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Kyle Postma for 5 yds to the TnTch 10Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+7
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 7 yds to the TnTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Jonathan King punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 35Similar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Radir Annoor run for 2 yds to the TnTch 27Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Jared Davis pass incomplete to Austin HicksSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 4 yds to the TnTch 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
100.0%
Adam Schulz pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 13 yds to the TnTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
100.0%
Javin Webb run for 2 yds to the TnTch 39Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Adam Schulz pass incomplete to Tyreik GraySimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Adam Schulz pass incomplete to Kyle PostmaSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds, downed at the TnTch 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 29TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
100.0%
Dorian Carter run for 4 yds to the TnTch 6Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+5
100.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (Kameron Eloph) to the TnTch 11Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+7
100.0%
Dorian Carter run for 7 yds to the TnTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
100.0%
Dorian Carter run for 5 yds to the TnTch 23Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Dorian Carter run for no gain to the TnTch 23Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+77
100.0%
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 77 yds for a TD, (John Arnold KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:14
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kyle Postma for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 13:16
Jared Davis pass complete to Brock McCoin for 71 yds for a TD, (John Arnold KICK)
-0.9
TD · Q4 14:54
Javin Webb run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com