Try the model
BAY

Baylor 56 at SMU 21

SMU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2015 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:05 · Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Pregame prior−3.5Home team on offense−54.6Score differential−41.4Garbage-time factor−20.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:02: Xavier Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +3.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:30: Seth Russell pass complete to Kd Cannon for 36 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +2.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:03: Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 31 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK) — SMU win probability +4.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:13: Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 22 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +8.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:27: Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 41 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:02BAY 4th & 4 at SMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:38SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:56BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:31SMU 4th & 6 at BAY 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:38SMU 4th & 1 at BAY 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 5 at BAY 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:43BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:41SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:13SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:45BAY 4th & 2 at SMU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:12SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 42, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:05BAY 4th & 17 at SMU 27, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:10BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:53SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 13:01BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:02SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 3:46BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q1 0:30BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 9:03SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:13BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:27BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:20BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:09BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5089% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
10.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 42 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
10.6%
Shock Linwood run for 25 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
10.6%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.8%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
11.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 46 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5289% → 89%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
11.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 60 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
11.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
11.0%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.1%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:5311% → 15%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
11.2%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+4
11.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 4 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
11.2%
Matt Davis run for 18 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
11.3%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+24
11.3%
Matt Davis run for 24 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
11.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
11.3%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
11.3%
Prescott Line run for 6 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
11.3%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the Bayl 7Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+4
11.3%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
11.3%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
11.3%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
14.8%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:1686% → 87%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.1%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
14.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.9%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
14.0%
Devin Chafin run for 10 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
13.8%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
13.7%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
13.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
13.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
13.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete, broken up by Darrion RichardsonSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
13.7%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+4
14.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 4 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
13.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Kd Cannon for 12 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
13.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:0214% → 13%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
13.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+11
13.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
13.7%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
13.7%
Matt Davis sacked by Jamal Palmer for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
13.4%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to CASTILLE, X. for 22 yards to the BU49 (Ryan Reid), PENALTY SMU illegal touching (CASTILLE, X.) 0 yards to the SMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+5
13.3%
Josh Williams punt for 39 yds , Lynx Hawthorne returns for 5 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:2486% → 89%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
13.8%
Seth Russell run for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
11.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Kd Cannon for 36 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 6:2212% → 17%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
11.7%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
11.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
11.7%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
11.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
12.0%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
12.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Patrick Levels for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+1
12.0%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+10
11.9%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to JOSEPH, Darius, QB hurry by Patrick Levels, PENALTY BU holding (T. Blanchard) 10 yards to the BU47, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
12.3%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
12.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
12.5%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-3
12.5%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+31
17.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 31 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
15.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 23 yards to the BU49 (WYATT, Jordan;JOHNSON, David), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Blake Muir) 5 yards to the BU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
16.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay Lee, broken up by Darrion RichardsonSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 15
OWN 21
-3
16.2%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 18 Seth Russell fumbled, recovered by Bayl Seth RussellSimilar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 18
OWN 18
0
16.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Kd CannonSimilar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
16.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 53 yds, downed at the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
16.0%
Braeden West run for 20 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
17.2%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+13
16.1%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
17.3%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
17.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 1 yd to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
17.4%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
17.3%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+9
16.5%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Taion Sells return for 9 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
15.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Jay Lee) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
16.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+4
16.9%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-5
17.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+47
17.3%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Darrion Richardson return for 32 yds to the SMU 42 SMU Penalty, illegal block (Jordan Wyatt) to the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12END OF HALF
11 plays · 24 yds · 1:5520% → 19%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
19.9%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 38 Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by SMU Matt DavisSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
18.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+14
17.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 14 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
18.3%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
19.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+15
20.8%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., PENALTY BU pass interference (Grant Campbell) 15 yards to the BU3, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.9%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.9%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
18.9%
Matt Davis sacked by Grant Campbell for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.2%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
18.6%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
18.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
19.6%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
19.7%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
19.0%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
19.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Xavier CastilleSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
18.7%
Josh Williams punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
17.8%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-5
17.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 2 yards to the BU34 (McCLENEGHEN, A.), PENALTY BU illegal formation 5 yards to the BU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
18.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Tre'Von Armstead, broken up by Mason GentrySimilar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
19.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay Lee, broken up by David Johnson BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
19.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
19.6%
Braeden West run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+12
19.3%
Matt Davis run for 12 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
20.8%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
20.8%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+10
19.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 10 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-5
21.3%
SMU Penalty, false start (Chauncey Briggs) to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
19.7%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
20.2%
Josh Williams punt for 49 yds, downed at the Bayl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 2:5081% → 92%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
19.3%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+4
19.1%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+56
18.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Kd Cannon for 56 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-13
16.6%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the SMU 26 BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Kd Cannon) to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 23
OPP 41
+5
17.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Devin Chafin for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 18
OPP 36
+19
17.9%
Devin Chafin run for 19 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
16.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Jarell Broxton) to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+22
8.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 22 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.1%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
10.2%
Darrel Colbert Jr. pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Xavien HowardSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
9.8%
Darrel Colbert Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
10.3%
Josh Williams punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1892% → 98%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
8.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Jarell Broxton) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+19
8.6%
Shock Linwood run for 19 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
7.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
7.9%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-1
7.7%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+3
8.6%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
7.7%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+41
1.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 41 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:273% → 3%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
3.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
2.9%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
2.9%
Josh Williams punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 0:5398% → 100%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
1.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 9 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
1.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+19
1.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 19 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
0.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 57 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.6%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
0.5%
Matt Davis run for 12 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Taion SellsSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
0.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah Gaines, broken up by Terrell BurtSimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
0.5%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SMU 42 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
0.6%
Josh Williams punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Lynx Hawthorne at the Bayl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
0.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 16
0
0.4%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+2
0.4%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
0.4%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+8
0.4%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
0.4%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+28
0.4%
Seth Russell run for 38 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
0.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+42
0.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chris Platt for 42 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
0.2%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-2
0.2%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+13
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 13 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.2%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
0.2%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Xavier Castille for 6 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+28
0.2%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Tion Wright return for 28 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
0.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-10
0.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 BAYLOR Penalty, illegal block (Chris Platt) to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+3
0.2%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+56
0.2%
Terence Williams run for 56 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
0.1%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-6
0.2%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 17
OPP 27
0
0.2%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+2
0.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.1%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:13
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 22 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q3 0:27
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 41 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-5.9
TD · Q2 9:03
Matt Davis pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 31 yds for a TD, (Chad Hedlund KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com