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VILL

Villanova 15 at UConn 20

CONN
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:00 · Justin Wain punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kevin Gulyas at the Villa 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+3.6Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:36: John Robertson pass complete to Matt Gudzak for 13 yds for a TD, (Steve Weyler KICK) — VILL win probability +14.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:57: Ron Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +9.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:53: Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 27 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +16.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:45: John Robertson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — VILL win probability +17.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:40: Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the UConn 25 — CONN win probability +8.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5VILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00VILL 4th & 4 at VILL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:46CONN 4th & 6 at VILL 44, up 6
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:03VILL 4th & 5 at CONN 7, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−5.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:35VILL 4th & 2 at CONN 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:57VILL 4th & 3 at VILL 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:00CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:23VILL 4th & 5 at CONN 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:32CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:37VILL 4th & 12 at VILL 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−3.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:49CONN 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.9%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CONN 4th & 1 at VILL 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.2 ptsPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−6.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06VILL 4th & 1 at CONN 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−5.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−6.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:55CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:36VILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:57CONN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:53CONN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:45VILL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Kevin GulyasSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.3%
Gary Underwood run for 6 yds to the Villa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
70.3%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Gary UnderwoodSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
70.3%
John Hinchen punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 7:0570% → 72%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
70.2%
Noel Thomas run for 8 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+2
70.2%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
70.2%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
70.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 8 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
70.2%
Ron Johnson run for 5 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+10
70.3%
Ron Johnson run for 10 yds to the Villa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
70.3%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the Villa 43Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
70.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 9 yds to the Villa 34Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
70.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the Villa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
70.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the Villa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
70.3%
Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the Villa 12Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-2
70.3%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 14Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
71.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 14 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5429% → 29%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
70.8%
Ja. Mcclenton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Villa 24Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+8
71.6%
John Robertson pass complete to Gary Underwood for 8 yds to the Villa 32Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
71.5%
John Robertson pass complete to Taurus Phllips for 7 yds to the Villa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
71.1%
John Robertson pass complete to Anthony DeCamillo for 1 yd to the Villa 40Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
71.1%
John Robertson pass complete to Gary Underwood for 15 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
70.6%
John Robertson sacked by Folorunso Fatukasi for a loss of 10 yards to the Villa 48 John Robertson fumbled, recovered by UConn Luke Carrezola , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
72.8%
Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the Villa 40Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-4
72.8%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Villa 44Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
72.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
72.1%
Justin Wain punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 7:0728% → 28%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.0%
John Robertson run for 6 yds to the Villa 26Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
71.7%
Ja. Mcclenton run for 5 yds to the Villa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
71.8%
John Robertson run for 5 yds to the Villa 36Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
71.2%
Matt Gudzak run for 3 yds to the Villa 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
71.3%
John Robertson run for 2 yds to the Villa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
71.9%
Gary Underwood pass complete to Kevin Gulyas for 36 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
70.4%
VILLANOVA Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the UConn 28Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-5
71.0%
Gary Underwood run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 20
OPP 33
-1
71.4%
John Robertson sacked by Luke Carrezola for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+22
72.3%
John Robertson run for 22 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
70.4%
Gary Underwood run for 8 yds to the UConn 4Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
70.4%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Taurus PhllipsSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-3
71.1%
John Robertson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 7 VILLANOVA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
71.9%
Steve Weyler 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6SF
5 plays · -20 yds · 2:0674% → 71%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
73.7%
JOHNSON, Ron rush for 24 yards to the UCONN44 (McCURRY, Cam.;SMITH, Wes), PENALTY UCONN holding (LEVY, Richard) 10 yards to the UCONN10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-7
73.6%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Tanoh Kpassagnon and Matt McCann for a loss of 7 yards to the UConn 3Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 27
OWN 3
-1
73.8%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 2Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 28
OWN 2
0
70.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete for a SAFETY CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive holding (Andreas Knappe) to the UConn 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 7TD
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:2128% → 45%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
71.9%
John Robertson pass complete to Gary Underwood for 6 yds to the Villa 39Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-5
70.7%
John Robertson sacked by Graham Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the Villa 34Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+10
72.9%
John Robertson pass complete to Gary Underwood for 10 yds to the Villa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
70.8%
Javon White run for 3 yds to the Villa 47Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+12
70.5%
John Robertson pass complete to Doug Turrell for 12 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.7%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Kevin GulyasSimilar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
70.8%
John Robertson run for 13 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
69.1%
Gary Underwood run for 5 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-1
69.1%
Gary Underwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 24Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+4
70.3%
John Robertson pass complete to Javon White for 4 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+3
71.0%
Javon White run for 3 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
69.1%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Kevin Gulyas, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
69.2%
John Robertson run for 4 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
54.8%
John Robertson pass complete to Matt Gudzak for 13 yds for a TD, (Steve Weyler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8INT
10 plays · 67 yds · 0:1859% → 63%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
58.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 16 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
61.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Max DeLorenzo for 11 yds to the UCONN 43 for a 1ST down VILLANOVA Penalty, personal foul (Wesley Smith) to the Villa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
64.5%
VILLANOVA Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Jason Ceneus) to the Villa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.5%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the Villa 12Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
64.5%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the Villa 8Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
62.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass intercepted Jason Ceneus return for no gain to the Villa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
59.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0359% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.6%
Arkeel Newsome run for 4 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+69
58.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tommy Myers for 69 yds to the Villa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.3%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the Villa 1Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
68.5%
Javon White run for 12 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
67.2%
Javon White run for 6 yds to the Villa 46Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
66.0%
Javon White run for 1 yd to the Villa 47Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
66.2%
John Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
68.2%
John Hinchen punt for 52 yds, downed at the UConn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
71.3%
VILLANOVA Penalty, Defensive offside (Matt McCann) to the UConn 6Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+5
71.3%
Ron Johnson run for 5 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
71.5%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 7Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 14
OWN 7
-3
71.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 4Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 17
OWN 4
0
70.1%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UConn 4Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 17
OWN 4
0
69.5%
Justin Wain punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kevin Gulyas at the Villa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 13INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
67.1%
John Robertson pass complete to Kevin Gulyas for 11 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
66.5%
John Robertson pass complete to Taurus Phllips for 6 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-1
65.0%
Javon White run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 36Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
66.9%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Alex PadovaniSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+6
68.4%
John Robertson pass intercepted Andrew Adams return for 6 yds to the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.0%
Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
73.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Thomas LucasSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
72.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 9 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for no gain to the UConn 42Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.0%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
71.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Alec Bloom, broken up by Cameron McCurrySimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
70.8%
Justin Wain punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kevin Gulyas at the Villa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
70.1%
ROBERTSON, Jon rush for no gain to the VU13 (VANN, Marquise;CARREZOLA, Luke), PENALTY VU IB (McCLENTON, Ja.) 6 yards to the VU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 16
OWN 7
0
70.6%
John Robertson run for no gain to the Villa 7Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+4
70.9%
John Robertson pass complete to Javon White for 4 yds to the Villa 11Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
71.7%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Kevin GulyasSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
72.5%
John Hinchen punt for 48 yds, downed at the UConn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:4975% → 74%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Alec BloomSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
73.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 4 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
73.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 1
50
+1
73.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the Villa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
75.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 8 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
76.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the Villa 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
75.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tommy MyersSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
73.6%
Justin Wain punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0030% → 33%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.8%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Aaron Wells, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
70.2%
John Robertson pass complete to Taurus Phllips for 7 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+18
69.9%
John Robertson pass complete to Aaron Wells for 18 yds to the Villa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
66.5%
John Robertson run for 1 yd to the Villa 46Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
66.8%
John Robertson run for 1 yd to the Villa 47Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+8
67.7%
John Robertson pass complete to Kevin Gulyas for 8 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
64.9%
Ja. Mcclenton run for 8 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
64.5%
Javon White run for 1 yd to the UConn 36Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
64.8%
Javon White run for no gain to the UConn 36Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
67.1%
John Robertson run for no gain to the UConn 36 John Robertson fumbled, recovered by Villa John RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:5275% → 94%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the UConn 37Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+14
74.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 14 yds to the Villa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
77.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 13 yds to the Villa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
77.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 12 yds to the Villa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
78.5%
Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the Villa 16Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-15
78.5%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Ron Johnson) to the Villa 31Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+4
76.6%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+27
93.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 27 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 19TD
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:089% → 24%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.4%
John Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
91.3%
John Robertson pass complete to Kevin Gulyas for 9 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+28
90.6%
John Robertson run for 28 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.7%
John Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
89.8%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Taurus PhllipsSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+14
91.1%
John Robertson pass complete to Taurus Phllips for 14 yds to the UConn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.7%
John Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
89.7%
John Robertson sacked by Folorunso Fatukasi for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 6Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.3%
John Robertson pass incomplete to Taurus Phllips, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Folorunso Fatukasi) to the UConn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.7%
John Robertson run for no gain to the UConn 3Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.0%
John Robertson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:1393% → 93%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
92.6%
Ron Johnson run for 8 yds to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
92.6%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
92.5%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
93.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 25Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-3
92.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
John Robertson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-17.7
TD · Q4 4:53
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 27 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q2 1:36
John Robertson pass complete to Matt Gudzak for 13 yds for a TD, (Steve Weyler KICK)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com