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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 42 at UTSA 7

UTSA
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−2.1Pregame prior−24.8Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q1 7:50: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 16 yds Richie James fumbled, forced by Duke Wheeler, recovered by TexSA Bennett Okotcha — UTSA win probability +2.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:20: Shane Tucker run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:34: Jordan Parker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:13: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terry Pettis for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:53: Shane Tucker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25UTSA 4th & 24 at UTSA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 2 at MTSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56MTSU 4th & 1 at UTSA 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:34UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.3%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:53UTSA 4th & 1 at MTSU 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:36MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:37UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:20MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:34MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:13MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:53MTSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:09MTSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:33UTSA Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
19.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 6 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-4
19.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
50
0
19.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
50
0
19.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
20.5%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 6Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+5
20.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+7
20.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
20.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
20.5%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+4
20.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
20.5%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Justin Akins and Raynard Felton for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-3
20.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 32 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+31
20.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 31 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-11
20.6%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Steven Rhodes for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 21
OWN 42
-3
20.5%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 24
OWN 39
0
20.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
23.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 16 yds Richie James fumbled, forced by Duke Wheeler, recovered by TexSA Bennett OkotchaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
24.0%
Steven Rhodes run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
24.0%
Steven Rhodes run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 36 Steven Rhodes fumbled, forced by Shaquille Huff, recovered by MTnSt Shaquille HuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:4977% → 79%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
23.3%
Richie James run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
23.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
22.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 4 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+19
23.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Marcus Davenport) to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
22.9%
Shane Tucker run for 7 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
22.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
22.9%
Shane Tucker run for 5 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
21.2%
Shane Tucker run for 14 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:2022% → 24%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
22.2%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+11
22.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 11 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
22.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Jamarcus HowardSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
22.4%
Aaron Grubb run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
50
0
23.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Darius HarrisSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
50
+8
22.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 8 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+10
23.0%
Aaron Grubb run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
23.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, offside defense (Raynard Felton) to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 5
OPP 27
-1
23.4%
Steven Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
23.4%
Steven Rhodes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
23.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 24
-1
23.6%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2277% → 84%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
22.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
21.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Derek Barnes for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
21.8%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
21.7%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
21.7%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
21.9%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+4
22.3%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
21.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 3 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+13
21.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 13 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
21.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 9 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+1
21.6%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus DavenportSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
16.5%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
17.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brett Winnegan for 10 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
18.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 16 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
19.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 8
50
0
19.1%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 8
50
-3
18.9%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
18.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:5783% → 92%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
17.2%
Shane Tucker run for no gain to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
17.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 9 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
17.2%
Shane Tucker run for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
17.6%
Chase Pennycuff run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
17.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 37 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
16.4%
Shane Tucker run for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
16.3%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
16.5%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
16.3%
Shane Tucker run for 5 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+7
16.3%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
16.3%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the TexSA 7Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terry Pettis for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
10.4%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Steven Rhodes for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 17Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+1
10.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for 1 yd to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+6
10.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
10.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-3
10.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
9.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+18
9.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds, downed at the TEXASSAN 44 TEXASSAN Penalty, kick catching interference (Darryl Godfrey) to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4792% → 97%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
7.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Shane Tucker, broken up by Marcos CurrySimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+28
7.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Christian Collis for 28 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
7.5%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+7
7.5%
Shane Tucker run for 7 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.1%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
4.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
4.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
4.4%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
4.7%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+14
4.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 14 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
5.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+20
4.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 20 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
5.4%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
5.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+7
5.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-1
4.8%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
2.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 11 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
2.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jordan Parker for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
2.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jordan Parker for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
2.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Demetrius Frazier, broken up by Drew DouglasSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+6
2.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 36 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 6 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:074% → 1%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
3.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
3.6%
Sturm middle pass complete to Taylor,J for 16 yards to the MT42 (Walker,X), PENALTY UTSA ineligible downfield on pass (Pratt) 5 yards to the UTSA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+4
3.4%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
1.4%
Daniel Portillo punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
1.7%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
1.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 12 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
1.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 1 yd to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+40
1.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 40 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
1.5%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20 Shane Tucker fumbled, forced by Mauricio Sanchez, recovered by TexSA Jonathan TuiolosegaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17INT TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:531% → 0%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.9%
Steven Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
0.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
0.9%
Steven Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
0.8%
Brett Winnegan run for 4 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+34
0.3%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted for a TD Alex Dale return for 34 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
0.3%
Brett Winnegan run for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
0.3%
Corbin White run for 7 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.3%
Corbin White run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+14
0.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Corbin White for 14 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
0.3%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Kevin Byard return for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:30100% → 100%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
0.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Austin Pratt) to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
0.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Christian Collis for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
0.4%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
0.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 1 yd to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+20
0.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terry Pettis for 20 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
0.4%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+7
0.4%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
0.4%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+8
0.4%
Kamani Thomas run for 8 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
Brian Vaughn run for 5 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
0.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
0.1%
Corbin White run for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
0.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
0.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
0.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 52 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.2%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
0.2%
Austin Grammer run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+9
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 9 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
0.2%
Austin Grammer run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 5 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
0.2%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+11
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 11 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
0.2%
Kamani Thomas run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-2
0.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:13
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terry Pettis for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 9:34
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q3 11:53
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com