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USM

Southern Miss 58 at Louisiana Tech 24

LT
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD—LT 0.6%Jeff Driskel pass complete to TrentTaylor for 19 yds for a TD, (JonathanBarnes KICK)AWAY 51 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:23 · Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense−50.7Score differential−37.0Pregame prior+2.4Garbage-time factor−18.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:06: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +13.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:44: Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +8.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:11: Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 43 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +16.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:09: Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +19.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:41: Ito Smith run for 57 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +17.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 3 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:41LT 4th & 8 at USM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33LT 4th & 15 at USM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45LT 4th & 14 at LT 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:06LT 4th & 11 at LT 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:23USM 4th & 7 at USM 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10USM 4th & 3 at LT 3, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−10.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:43USM 4th & 3 at USM 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:20LT 4th & 7 at LT 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:39USM 4th & 7 at LT 37, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.8
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:23USM 4th & 10 at LT 44, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:17USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:06USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:06USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:44LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:11LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:09USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:41USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:20USM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:56USM Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:23LT Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:26USM Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
64.2%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
64.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor MariniSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
64.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 58 yds, downed at the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
64.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 20 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
64.2%
Paul Turner run for 7 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+15
64.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 15 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
64.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
64.2%
Jeff Driskel run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
64.2%
Gerald Shouse punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:4136% → 40%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
64.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 20 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
63.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
63.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+20
64.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
50
+7
63.5%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+21
63.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 21 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
60.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 22 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:4462% → 61%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
61.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
61.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 15 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
62.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+18
61.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 18 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.4%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-9
62.3%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 19
OPP 34
-5
61.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, delay of game (Jeff Driskel) to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 24
OPP 39
+9
61.5%
Jeff Driskel run for 9 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
61.0%
Jonathan Barnes 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.5%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+17
61.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
60.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
61.3%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Beau Fitte return for no gain to the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
61.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
61.4%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-7
61.0%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Draper Riley and Darian Yancey for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 27Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+6
60.4%
Jeff Driskel run for 6 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+3
60.2%
Gerald Shouse punt for 40 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0340% → 50%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
60.1%
Ito Smith run for 27 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
59.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
59.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+18
59.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 18 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
58.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 18 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
58.4%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.4%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.0%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:0050% → 64%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.0%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
50.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+43
50.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 43 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
49.7%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
49.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
35.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
41.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
40.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for no gain to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
40.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
40.6%
Gerald Shouse punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
34.7%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+17
34.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
33.9%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
34.0%
Justice Hayes run for 6 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-3
34.0%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+14
34.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 37 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 14 yds to the LaTch 6 Trent Taylor fumbled, forced by Devonta Foster, recovered by SoMis Evan Osborne , return for 28 yds to the LATECH 28 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal block (Evan Osborne) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5971% → 74%
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
29.1%
Nick Mullens sacked by Vontarrius Dora for a loss of 8 yards to the LaTch 14 Nick Mullens fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
29.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+11
30.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 11 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
25.9%
Stephen Brauchle 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2628% → 39%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
28.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 14 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
29.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 14 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
30.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+9
30.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 9 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
30.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 15 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
39.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
15 plays · 63 yds · 1:4265% → 73%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.9%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
35.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
33.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 18 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
32.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
32.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 7 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
31.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
31.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 32 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-11
27.5%
Nick Mullens sacked by Kentrell Brice for a loss of 11 yards to the LaTch 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0034% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
34.3%
Jeff Driskel run for 2 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
34.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+22
33.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 22 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
36.6%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted D'Nerius Antoine return for 26 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
31.4%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
29.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Justice HayesSimilar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
30.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
31.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds, downed at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
30.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 10Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+2
30.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 2 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
30.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Kenneth DixonSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
30.1%
Gerald Shouse punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
25.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 3 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
25.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
25.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 8 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
25.6%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
25.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Jaylon FergusonSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+7
25.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 7 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
27.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Nick Mullens) to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
27.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4725% → 43%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
25.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 22Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
22.9%
DRISKEL, Jeff pass incomplete to TAYLOR, Trent, PENALTY USM pass interference (FOSTER, Devonta) 15 yards to the LATECH37, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
24.5%
Kenneth Dixon run for 3 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
25.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 9 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
25.8%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Naim Mustafaa for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+15
24.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Draper Riley) to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
26.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
43.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 43 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:0265% → 87%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
35.4%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+26
36.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 26 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
32.8%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
32.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 12 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
31.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Bryson AbrahamSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
30.7%
MULLENS, Nick rush for no gain to the LATECH35, PENALTY USM holding (FARRIOR, Devin) 10 yards to the LATECH45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+44
32.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 43 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, roughing passer (Vernon Butler) to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:0918% → 20%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-9
17.8%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Brian Anderson for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 19
OWN 12
+32
17.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 32 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
19.7%
Carlos Henderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+18
19.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 18 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
19.6%
Kenneth Dixon run for no gain to the SoMis 43 Kenneth Dixon fumbled, recovered by SoMis Terrick Wright , return for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
2.5%
Ito Smith run for 57 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
4.9%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Terrick Wright return for 22 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
0.7%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
2.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for a loss of 4 yards Trent Taylor fumbled, forced by Picasso Nelson Jr., recovered by SoMis Trae CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.7%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:331% → 1%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
0.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Paul Turner for 15 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 11 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 6 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+4
0.6%
Jeff Driskel run for 4 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
0.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
0.5%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
0.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
0.4%
Ito Smith run for 20 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
0.4%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+3
0.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+3
0.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
0.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Nick Mullens) to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
0.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaTch 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
0.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+6
0.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+26
0.1%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted for a TD Devonta Foster return for 26 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29INT
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
0.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Grant Childress for 9 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+1
0.1%
Blake Martin run for 1 yd to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Ryan Higgins run for no gain to the LaTch 42Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
0.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Marlon Watts for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 2
50
+3
0.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Blake Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Thaddaeus MedfordSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
0.1%
Blake Martin run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+11
0.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Blake Martin for 11 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
0.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 21 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.2%
Ryan Higgins pass intercepted N/A return for 12 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:09
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-19
TD · Q4 14:41
Ito Smith run for 57 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 5:11
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 43 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com