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RICE

Rice 24 at UTSA 34

UTSA
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Samuel Stewart at the Rice 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense+9.6Garbage-time factor+5.0Pregame prior+2.3Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:24: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 26 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +6.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:04: Jarveon Williams run for 78 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:48: Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +10.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:31: Darik Dillard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +14.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 0:07: Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED) — UTSA win probability +12.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:46RICE 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  3. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 30, up 11
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:39RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:39UTSA 4th & 19 at UTSA 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:31UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:29RICE 4th & 19 at UTSA 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−1.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00RICE 4th & 1 at UTSA 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−3.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−13.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:31UTSA 4th & 23 at RICE 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:28RICE 4th & 10 at UTSA 49, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:07UTSA 4th & 12 at RICE 25, up 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%
    66% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:00RICE 4th & 6 at UTSA 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:51RICE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:09UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:17UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:24RICE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:04UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:48UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:31RICE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:07UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:1445% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
54.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+13
54.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 13 yds to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
54.6%
Darik Dillard run for 7 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+3
54.6%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
54.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 6 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+12
54.6%
Darik Dillard run for 12 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
54.6%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
54.6%
Austin Walter run for 10 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
54.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Austin WalterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
54.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
54.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
54.5%
Hayden Tobola 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
54.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
54.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
54.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
55.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
54.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+14
54.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds , Samuel Stewart returns for 14 yds to the Rice 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:2346% → 49%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
54.3%
Austin Walter run for 6 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
54.0%
Austin Walter run for 3 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
54.1%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.0%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
54.1%
RICE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 42Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+58
50.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 58 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:4252% → 55%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
51.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 12 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
51.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+25
52.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 25 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
52.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+25
52.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 25 yds to the Rice 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Rice 1Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.7%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the Rice 1Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0946% → 48%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
54.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 11 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
54.0%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
53.7%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
53.5%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
53.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Samuel Stewart for 26 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
52.8%
Samuel Stewart run for 1 yd to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-15
51.4%
Walter,Au rush left for 5 yards to the UTSA26 (Douglas;Wheeler), PENALTY RICE illegal block (Anderson) 15 yards to the UTSA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 46
+25
52.3%
Driphus Jackson pass intercepted Bennett Okotcha return for 25 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5854% → 59%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
54.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 9 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
55.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
55.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+2
53.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
53.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+36
53.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 36 yds to the Rice 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
56.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-3
56.0%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 23Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+23
59.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5342% → 52%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.3%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
57.8%
Nate German run for 4 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
57.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 14 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
56.5%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+21
56.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 21 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
55.6%
Samuel Stewart run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
55.4%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+26
48.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 26 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
48.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the TexSA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
60.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 78 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
59.3%
Driphus Jackson run for 4 yds to the Rice 20Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+6
59.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 6 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
59.2%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
58.7%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 20 Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by TexSA Marcos Curry , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Rice 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:1664% → 73%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
63.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
63.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+11
62.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the Rice 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:2928% → 24%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
71.7%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+9
71.9%
Samuel Stewart run for 9 yds to the Rice 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
71.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis Parks, broken up by Marcus DavenportSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
71.8%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+11
72.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 11 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
70.9%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+3
75.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 3 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-10
75.7%
Jackson middle pass complete to Smith for 10 yards to the RICE45 (Okotcha), PENALTY RICE holding (Pierce) 10 yards to the RICE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+6
75.8%
Austin Walter run for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
74.8%
Thomas Jr. rush left for 8 yards to the UTSA32 (Brown), PENALTY UTSA holding (Williams,J) 10 yards to the UTSA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+14
74.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 14 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
74.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan II, broken up by Alex LyonsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+2
73.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
73.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Samuel Stewart at the Rice 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
74.2%
Austin Walter run for 9 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-10
73.1%
Walter,Au rush right for 12 yards to the UTSA48 (Gaines), PENALTY RICE holding (Pierce) 10 yards to the RICE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
74.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
75.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+47
76.4%
James Farrimond punt for 47 yds, downed at the TEXASSAN 23 TEXASSAN Penalty, IP ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
76.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Preston Gordon for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+7
75.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-8
74.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Brian Womac for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 14Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 19
OWN 14
+6
74.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 46 , Samuel Stewart returns for 6 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:1926% → 41%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
73.9%
Samuel Stewart run for 3 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
73.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 8 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
72.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 6 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
72.4%
Samuel Stewart run for 7 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
72.4%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
72.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 5 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+12
73.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for 12 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.9%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
66.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
67.8%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-11
66.2%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Derek Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
64.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Samuel Stewart at the Rice 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.3%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+28
64.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, illegal use of hands (Brian Price) to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
59.5%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 18
OPP 43
-1
63.3%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 19
OPP 44
0
64.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
66.4%
James Farrimond punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 2:4568% → 85%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
67.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 2
OWN 12
-6
68.0%
Sturm sideline pass complete to Morgan II for 46 yards to the RICE42 (Banks), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Morgan II) 6 yards to the UTSA6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+32
67.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 32 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
69.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 16 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
71.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
71.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the Rice 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
72.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
85.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 70 yds · 0:0717% → 19%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for 14 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
81.1%
Samuel Stewart run for 2 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+45
81.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 45 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
78.2%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate German, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
78.2%
Driphus Jackson run for 5 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
79.7%
Driphus Jackson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
81.0%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the TexSA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 57 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
84.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+7
84.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+36
83.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 36 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
50
+9
86.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
86.3%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+16
85.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Rice 40 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alex Lyons) to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
86.5%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 29Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-5
86.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (David Morgan II) to the Rice 34Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 19
OPP 34
+2
86.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 17
OPP 32
-6
85.2%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Carl Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 23
OPP 38
0
83.7%
Daniel Portillo punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
90.0%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate German, broken up by Duke WheelerSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
90.0%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+30
90.6%
Driphus Jackson run for 30 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate German, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
88.3%
Driphus Jackson run for 3 yds to the Rice 46 Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by RiceSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
88.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 5 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
87.2%
Darik Dillard run for 6 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-6
86.6%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
88.2%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to James Mayden, broken up by Jonathan TuiolosegaSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 10
OPP 49
-4
89.4%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 2:2493% → 96%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
92.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 13 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
92.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
94.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 9 yds to the Rice 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
95.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (David Morgan II) to the Rice 28Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+1
94.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Rice 27Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+2
95.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
95.6%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 12
OPP 25
0
96.4%
Daniel Portillo punt for 13 yds, downed at the Rice 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23INT
11 plays · 62 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
96.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 11 yds to the Rice 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
96.7%
Driphus Jackson run for 2 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
96.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 11 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
96.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 22 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
95.8%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
95.2%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Parker Smith, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
95.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+12
96.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for 12 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.9%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
95.2%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to James Mayden, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
95.6%
Driphus Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Mauricio Sanchez return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:31
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q3 0:07
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)
+12.4
TD · Q2 3:48
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com