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USM

Southern Miss 65 at Rice 10

RICE
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:57 · Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 18 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense−33.2Score differential−17.7Pregame prior−10.7Garbage-time factor−8.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:13: Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +2.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:22: Tyler Sarrazin pass complete to Xavier Thigpen for 6 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +6.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:34: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 50 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +7.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:04: Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 13 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:30: Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 16 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 11 of 13USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00RICE 4th & 16 at RICE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01USM 4th & 1 at RICE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:01USM 4th & 8 at RICE 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:06RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:13RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 14 at USM 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:50RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:34USM 4th & 1 at RICE 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−1.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:22USM 4th & 6 at RICE 6, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:22RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:34RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:04RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 49, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:57USM 4th & 2 at RICE 34, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:02RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 32, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:53USM 4th & 14 at RICE 22, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:53RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 46, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:59RICE 4th & 10 at USM 30, down 52
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:56RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 38, down 58
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:10RICE 4th & 10 at USM 15, down 58
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:23USM 4th & 2 at USM 26, up 55
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:13RICE 4th & 7 at USM 9, down 55
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 3:13USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:22USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:34USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:08USM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:04USM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:30USM Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:02USM Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54USM Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:45USM Touchdown, up 61 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:46RICE Touchdown, down 56 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
30.4%
Darik Dillard run for no gain to the Rice 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
30.4%
Darik Dillard run for 16 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
30.4%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-11
30.4%
Driphus Jackson run for a loss of 11 yards to the Rice 26 Driphus Jackson fumbled, forced by Elijah Parker, recovered by Rice Zach WrightSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+3
30.4%
James Farrimond punt for 50 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
30.4%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Darik DillardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
31.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 17 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
31.4%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
31.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
31.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 2 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+4
31.5%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
31.4%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the Rice 42Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-5
31.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 47Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+6
31.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 6 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
31.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.4%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
33.4%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
33.0%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 17Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 13
OWN 17
-2
32.9%
James Farrimond punt for 49 yds , Jalen Richard returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5567% → 70%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
33.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
33.2%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
33.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
33.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
33.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 4
50
+16
33.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 16 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
32.7%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
32.6%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
30.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.5%
Austin Walter run for 9 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-15
32.2%
RICE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Rice 19Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
31.4%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Draper Riley for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 14Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+13
31.0%
Darik Dillard run for 13 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
30.8%
RICE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rice 22Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
30.8%
James Farrimond punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2370% → 68%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
30.6%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
31.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Norman Price) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+1
31.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
31.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 48 yds, downed at the Rice 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
31.4%
Austin Walter run for 4 yds to the Rice 23Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+12
31.5%
Austin Walter run for 12 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Austin Walter run for no gain to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
31.5%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-8
31.0%
Driphus Jackson sacked by D'Nerius Antoine for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 27Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+23
30.5%
James Farrimond punt for 48 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 23 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:1270% → 77%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
30.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
30.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 8 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
29.9%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+16
30.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 16 yds to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
29.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+19
29.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 19 yds to the Rice 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
29.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
29.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ Thompson, broken up by Zach EspinosaSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
29.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.1%
Tyler Sarrazin pass complete to Xavier Thigpen for 6 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
24.1%
RICE Penalty, false start (Calvin Anderson) to the Rice 14Similar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
24.0%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis Parks, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-8
24.0%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Michael Smith and Brian Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 6Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 23
OWN 6
+15
23.6%
Darik Dillard run for 15 yds to the Rice 21Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
23.8%
James Farrimond punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:5378% → 85%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
22.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 9
50
+50
14.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 50 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
16.3%
Samuel Stewart run for no gain to the Rice 7Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
16.3%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
16.2%
Driphus Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
16.2%
James Farrimond punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:1986% → 85%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
14.1%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
14.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 51 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
13.2%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Elijah Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 17Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
13.5%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-4
13.5%
Driphus Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 13 Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by SoMis Xavier ThigpenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
6.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 13 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
7.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
7.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 8 yds Temi Alaka fumbled, forced by Trae Collins,Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
7.4%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
8.1%
Tyler Stehling run for 2 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
7.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
7.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker Smith, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
7.8%
James Farrimond punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 2:4493% → 96%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
6.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
6.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+47
6.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 47 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
6.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Rice 41Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
6.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by JT BlasingameSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+7
6.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+18
5.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 18 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
3.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 16 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
3.4%
Darik Dillard run for 11 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
3.5%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5896% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
3.8%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-3
3.8%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
3.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 12 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
3.2%
Jalen Richard run for 60 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
1.8%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
1.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
1.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-3
1.7%
James Farrimond punt for 52 yds , Jalen Richard returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0997% → 98%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
2.9%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+23
2.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 23 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
2.8%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
2.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Michael Thomas) to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+5
2.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+38
2.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 38 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
2.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 20Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
2.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 12
OPP 20
-2
2.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 22Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+39
2.3%
Stephen Brauchle 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:541% → 0%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.8%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
0.8%
Tyler Stehling run for 7 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
0.8%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+8
0.8%
Luke Turner run for 8 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.9%
Tyler Stehling run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+2
0.9%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+12
0.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Dennis Parks for 12 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
1.0%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-1
0.9%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Cole Hunt for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
0.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Dennis Parks, broken up by D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+9
0.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 9 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5999% → 99%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
1.4%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+20
1.4%
Tyler Matthews pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
1.3%
Tyler Matthews pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
1.3%
RICE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (VJ Banks) to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
1.3%
Tyler Matthews run for 6 yds to the Rice 18Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+1
1.3%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 1 yd to the Rice 17Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
0.8%
Tyler Matthews run for 17 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
0.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 10 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
0.3%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 28Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach Wright, broken up by Deshadrick TrulySimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+15
0.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Luke Turner, broken up by Deshadrick TrulySimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-7
0.2%
Tyler Stehling sacked by LaDarius Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 36Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+2
0.2%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
0.2%
James Farrimond punt for 42 yds , Jalen Richard returns for no gain to the SoMis 15 Jalen Richard fumbled, forced by Derek Brown, recovered by Rice Luke TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Zach Wright pass incomplete to Tyler StehlingSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Cole HuntSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
0.2%
Hayden Tobola 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
0.6%
Tyler Matthews pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 28 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Tyler Matthews pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Delaunte' Thornton run for no gain to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+47
0.4%
Tyler Matthews pass complete to Jarell Aaron for 47 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
0.2%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
0.1%
Driphus Jackson run for 3 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+6
0.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jowan Davis for 6 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 2 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
0.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
0.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 15 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to James Mayden for no gain to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
0.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Connor Cella for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+13
0.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Parker Smith for 13 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
0.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Nate German for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
0.4%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+7
0.3%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 7 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
0.3%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
0.3%
Delaunte' Thornton run for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+6
0.4%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Matthew Moseley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Austin Walter at the Rice 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
0.1%
Austin Walter run for 30 yds to the RICE 25 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Evan Osborne) to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
0.1%
Austin Walter run for 3 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
0.1%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
0.1%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 7
OPP 9
0
0.1%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Nate German, broken up by Trae CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
0.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-4 Yards) to the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:34
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 50 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q2 5:04
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 13 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q2 9:22
Tyler Sarrazin pass complete to Xavier Thigpen for 6 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com