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UTSA

UTSA 30 at Charlotte 27

CLT
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:01 · Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 72Pregame prior−11.9Home team on offense+1.6Score differential−0.6Time remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:49: Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +18.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:11: Jarveon Williams run for 24 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +17.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:15: Matt Johnson pass complete to Trent Bostick for 42 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +21.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:56: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 26 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +28.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:11: Blake Brewer 37 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +28.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 11 of 14UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17UTSA 4th & 15 at CLT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:43CLT 4th & 2 at UTSA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:40CLT 4th & 6 at UTSA 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:11UTSA 4th & 15 at CLT 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:11CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:56UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:01CLT 4th & 1 at UTSA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−1.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43CLT 4th & 4 at UTSA 18, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:11CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:15UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−4.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:58CLT 4th & 19 at CLT 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−6.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 19 at UTSA 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−7.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:53CLT 4th & 7 at UTSA 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−13.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:53UTSA 4th & 21 at UTSA 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−4.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:47CLT 4th & 7 at UTSA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−14.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:56CLT 4th & 2 at UTSA 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.8%−4.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:56CLT 4th & 2 at UTSA 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−3.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−6.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:11CLT 4th & 6 at UTSA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−16.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−29.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00UTSA 4th & 1 at CLT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−7.5
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−11.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 2:28CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:49UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:35CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:11UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:23UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:15CLT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:56UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.0%
Brooks Barden run for 2 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
31.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
31.0%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, false start (Danny Book) to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
31.0%
Brooks Barden sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
31.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT
12 plays · 45 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
31.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
31.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
50
+4
31.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the Charl 46Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+10
31.7%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 10 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
31.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jalen RhodesSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
31.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
31.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
31.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
31.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
31.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
31.6%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 16Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
31.6%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Terrance Winchester return for no gain to the Charl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
33.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 7Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
33.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 11Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+10
33.6%
Matt Johnson run for 10 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
34.0%
Andrew Buie run for 9 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
34.4%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.1%
Brooks Barden pass intercepted Bennett Okotcha return for no gain to the Charl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
33.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-15
33.5%
Williams,J rush for loss of 3 yards to the CHA37 (DOZIER, Branden), PENALTY UTSA illegal block (Gray) 15 yards to the CHA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 22
OPP 49
+4
34.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the Charl 45 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 18
OPP 45
-5
34.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, delay of game (Dalton Sturm) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 23
50
+8
34.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 8 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
34.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds, downed at the Charl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
35.6%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the Charl 4Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
35.5%
Andrew Buie run for 1 yd to the Charl 5Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
35.1%
Brooks Barden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
34.8%
Arthur Hart punt for 35 yds, downed at the Charl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
34.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Larry Ogunjobi for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 45Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+1
35.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the Charl 44Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-11
35.8%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Devin Pearson return for 4 yds to the Charl 40 TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Charl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:0338% → 39%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
38.1%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
38.4%
Andrew Buie run for no gain to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
38.0%
Brooks Barden run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+4
37.4%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.4%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
39.3%
Andrew Buie run for 1 yd to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+3
38.9%
Garrison Duncan run for 3 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
38.8%
Blake Brewer 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2963% → 61%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
36.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
36.1%
Halen Steward run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+5
37.1%
Routsas punt 24 yards to the CHA33, HOLMES, Ardy return to the UTSA48 (Neill), PENALTY CHA offside (BOSTICK, Trent) 5 yards to the UTSA48, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
35.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
35.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
35.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 14 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
35.1%
Derrick Dick run for a loss of 10 yards to the Charl 32Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+3
36.2%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+2
37.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+44
39.1%
Daniel Portillo 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
40.5%
Andrew Buie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 24Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+6
40.0%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Austin Duke for 6 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
39.5%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Andrew BuieSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
38.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
37.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
37.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-8
38.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Karrington King and Larry Ogunjobi for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
39.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:3344% → 57%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
50
+15
44.1%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Austin Duke for 15 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
44.9%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+13
44.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 13 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
44.9%
Andrew Buie run for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
44.9%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
44.0%
Brooks Barden pass complete to T.L. Ford for 6 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
42.8%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
44.9%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
47.0%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Andrew BuieSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
56.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Richard Murphy for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
54.7%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Daquan Lucas return for 2 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3358% → 56%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
57.8%
Andrew Buie run for 4 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
57.8%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
56.9%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+3
56.1%
Lee McNeill run for 3 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
56.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 1:1144% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+17
56.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 17 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+68
55.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 68 yds to the Charl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
37.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1445% → 64%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
45.3%
Brooks Barden sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 17Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+3
44.8%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+39
43.4%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 24 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Jason Neill) to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
48.8%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Richard Murphy for 20 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
49.5%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
63.7%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Richard Murphy for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:2442% → 62%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
58.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
58.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
56.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
54.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
55.4%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Terrance Winchester) to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
38.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 24 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.2%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
45.8%
Andrew Buie run for 4 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+4
44.6%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Trent Bostick for 4 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the Charl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:3960% → 73%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
40.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+31
39.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 31 yds to the Charl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
38.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 6 yds to the Charl 6Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-1
38.5%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 7Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
27.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 7 yds for a TD CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0834% → 58%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.5%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
33.7%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Austin Duke for 14 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.1%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
36.5%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+9
36.1%
Garrison Duncan run for 9 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
57.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Trent Bostick for 42 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 44%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
52.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
51.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Dalton Sturm for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Tyrell ClaySimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+14
55.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for 14 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0058% → 51%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
58.2%
Andrew Buie run for no gain to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
57.7%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Kyle Hoffman, broken up by Nate GainesSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-9
55.3%
Brooks Barden sacked by Kevin Strong Jr. and Michael Egwuagu for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
51.3%
Arthur Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:4447% → 42%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
53.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 14
OWN 15
-6
54.0%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Daquan Lucas for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 9Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+9
56.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 9 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+15
56.9%
Routsas punt 27 yards to the UTSA45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CHA roughing the kicker (QUATTLEBAUM, M.) 15 yards to the UTSA33, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by Justin Bridges-ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
52.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-9
54.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Caleb Clayton-Molby for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 24
+40
58.2%
Daniel Portillo punt for 40 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:5657% → 67%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
56.9%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Andrew Buie for 10 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
59.9%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Richard Murphy for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
61.3%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Jamal Covington) to the Charl 40Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
59.3%
JOHNSON, Matt pass complete to FORD II, T.L. for 60 yards to the UTSA0, clock 14:05, PENALTY CHA pass interference (FORD II, T.L.) 15 yards to the CHA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+15
56.2%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to FORD II, T.L. (Okotcha), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Okotcha) 15 yards to the CHA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+33
57.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Trent Bostick for 33 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
62.7%
Matt Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
62.7%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+1
60.9%
Matt Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 24 Matt Johnson fumbled, forced by Jonathan Tuiolosega, recovered by Charl Jarred BarrSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
66.6%
Blake Brewer 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0038% → 34%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
62.5%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-9
63.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 10Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 21
OWN 10
0
65.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 21
OWN 10
0
66.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 34 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for no gain to the TexSA 28 Ardy Holmes fumbled, recovered by Charl Ardy Holmes TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (C.J. Levine) to the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 26MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3872% → 68%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
72.2%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
72.2%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Richard MurphySimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
70.5%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Andrew Buie, broken up by Drew DouglasSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
67.6%
Blake Brewer 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5137% → 72%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
65.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, roughing passer (Jarred Barr) to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
60.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+11
58.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
57.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
57.5%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Jarred Barr) to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
55.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
56.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by Terrance WinchesterSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
27.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 26 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 28FG
18 plays · 48 yds · 6:4538% → 58%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
38.3%
Andrew Buie run for 6 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
41.7%
Andrew Buie run for 5 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.2%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
39.5%
Andrew Buie run for 6 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+2
41.4%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+4
39.4%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.3%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Kyle HoffmanSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
43.0%
Andrew Buie run for 7 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
42.7%
Andrew Buie run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
39.9%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
45.5%
Matt Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+9
45.5%
Andrew Buie run for 9 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
45.6%
Brooks Barden sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+2
45.5%
Garrison Duncan run for 2 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+3
42.8%
Garrison Duncan run for 3 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
57.7%
Blake Brewer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29MISSED FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:1154% → 55%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
46.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 6 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
43.8%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
43.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
44.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 13 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-6
41.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Daquan Lucas for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 16
50
+15
49.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 15 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+52
45.2%
Victor Falcon 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 30INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
64.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Kyle Hoffman for 20 yds Kyle Hoffman fumbled, forced by Bennett Okotcha, recovered by Charl for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
64.7%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.7%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. Nate Gaines return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the Charl 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
40.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the Charl 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+8
43.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the Charl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
40.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the Charl 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
40.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Charl 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+4
43.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Charl 5Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
27.6%
Daniel Portillo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:11
Blake Brewer 37 yd FG GOOD
+28.3
TD · Q4 7:56
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 26 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
-28.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-27.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com