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Florida Atlantic 19 at Western Kentucky 35

WKU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:41 · D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+38.2Home team on offense−1.2Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:41: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +3.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:50: Tim Gorski 18 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +6.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:36: Nate Terry 2 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FAU win probability +12.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Brandon Doughty 7 Yd pass from Nacarius Fant (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +9.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:18: D'Andre Ferby run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST down — WKU win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 6 at FAU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:45FAU 4th & 2 at WKU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41WKU 4th & 1 at FAU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41WKU 4th & 17 at FAU 38, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 46, tied
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:22FAU 4th & 4 at WKU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:21FAU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:05FAU 4th & 4 at WKU 4, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:09FAU 4th & 9 at WKU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:50FAU 4th & 1 at WKU 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−3.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:36FAU 4th & 2 at WKU 2, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:48FAU 4th & 10 at WKU 12, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:41FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:19WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:21WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:50WKU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:36FAU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00WKU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
92.1%
Anthony Wales run for 18 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 7 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
92.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
92.1%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
92.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane Grant, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
92.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas Norris, broken up by Henry BusseySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
92.1%
Jake Collins punt for 31 yds, downed at the FlAtl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:049% → 12%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.5%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
91.5%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+10
91.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 10 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.5%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
91.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
91.5%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Jontavious Morris for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+20
91.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 20 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
91.4%
Jay Warren run for 6 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
91.4%
Trey Rodriguez run for 6 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
91.4%
Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+7
91.4%
Trey Rodriguez run for 7 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+6
91.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 6 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
91.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Henry BusseySimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
88.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 7:2289% → 88%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
Brandon Doughty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.5%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
88.4%
Anthony Wales run for 15 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
88.7%
Taywan Taylor run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 16
OWN 38
0
88.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for no gain to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+15
88.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 15 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+3
88.7%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
88.9%
DOUGHTY, B. pass complete to WALES, Anthony for no gain to the FAU44 (YOUNG, Jalen), PENALTY WKU pass interference 15 yards to the WKU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+2
88.5%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 23
OWN 43
+1
88.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 1 yd to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 22
OWN 44
+25
88.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 25 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
89.0%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 17
OPP 38
+21
88.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 21 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-7
89.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+5
88.8%
Taywan Taylor run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 38 Taywan Taylor fumbled, recovered by WKent Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
85.6%
WALES, Anthony rush for 17 yards to the FAU0, WALES, Anthony rush for loss of 5 yards to the FAU22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WKU holding 5 yards to the FAU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+18
85.4%
Anthony Wales run for 18 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 5:5714% → 18%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
86.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
86.2%
Henry Bussey run for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-5
86.0%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Kelly Parfitt) to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
86.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+21
87.0%
Trey Rodriguez run for 21 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
84.6%
Kamrin Solomon run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+6
85.1%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+11
84.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 11 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
84.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 9 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+6
84.5%
Trey Rodriguez run for 6 yds to the WKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.5%
Trey Rodriguez run for no gain to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Wonderful TerrySimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate Terry, broken up by Prince Charles IworahSimilar
Q2 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+20
82.4%
Greg Joseph 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:0184% → 88%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
84.1%
Anthony Wales run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
84.5%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
87.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 44 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:1613% → 18%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.6%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
86.3%
Greg Howell run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler Cameron, broken up by Tj McCollumSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
86.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 4 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+20
85.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 20 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
84.9%
Henry Bussey run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
85.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Greg HowellSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+6
86.0%
Jason Driskel run for 6 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+24
86.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 24 yds to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
84.9%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.1%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
81.6%
Greg Joseph 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7INT
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:5583% → 85%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
83.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 9 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.9%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
83.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 7 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+11
84.2%
Anthony Wales run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
85.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 26 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
85.0%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted Cre'von LeBlanc return for no gain to the FlAtl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
82.2%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+9
82.4%
Jay Warren run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:5118% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
81.0%
Trey Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
82.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
81.2%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete to WOODS, Kalib, PENALTY WKU pass interference (IWORAH, Prince) 15 yards to the WKU48, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
79.8%
Trey Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Gavin Rocker) to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
79.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Prince Charles IworahSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
79.1%
Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
80.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
79.6%
Greg Joseph 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1981% → 89%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
80.6%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+29
80.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 29 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
82.7%
DOUGHTY, B. pass incomplete to DANGERFIELD, J., PENALTY FAU pass interference (MILLER, Herb) 15 yards to the FAU24, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
83.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 6 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+10
83.2%
Anthony Wales run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
83.2%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
83.2%
DOUGHTY, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY WKU pass interference 15 yards to the FAU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
89.4%
Tim Gorski 18 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD
17 plays · 50 yds · 6:1415% → 27%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
50
0
85.4%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
50
-4
86.0%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass complete to THOMAS, Tony for 7 yards to the WKU43 (TERRY, W.), PENALTY FAU holding 4 yards to the FAU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+5
87.0%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete to CAMERON, Tyler, PENALTY WKU pass interference (BROWN, Dejon) 5 yards to the WKU49, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
85.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
85.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
85.8%
Henry Bussey run for 6 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
86.4%
Greg Howell run for 2 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
85.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 5 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
84.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+13
85.6%
Trey Rodriguez run for 13 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
84.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kamrin SolomonSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
84.5%
Trey Rodriguez run for 11 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
84.2%
Trey Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
84.2%
Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the WKent 5Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
85.2%
Trey Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.8%
Nate Terry 2 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2976% → 90%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
75.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 22 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to D'Andre Ferby for no gain to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
77.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 8 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+22
78.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 22 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
79.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tim Gorski for 17 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.7%
Brandon Doughty 7 Yd pass from Nacarius Fant (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
88.0%
Trey Rodriguez run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+4
88.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+7
89.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 64 yds , Kylen Towner returns for 7 yds to the WKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 0:0088% → 97%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
87.7%
Nicholas Norris run for 8 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
88.1%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.0%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
89.2%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
88.4%
D'Andre Ferby run for 2 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
89.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+13
89.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
89.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+14
89.0%
Anthony Wales run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
89.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
89.7%
Nicholas Norris run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+7
96.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 60 yds · 0:485% → 3%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
95.4%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+21
96.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 21 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
97.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+37
97.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 37 yds to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
96.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
96.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kamrin SolomonSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
97.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Henry BusseySimilar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 10
OPP 12
0
97.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Henry BusseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16END OF GAME
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4498% → 99%
Q4 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
98.1%
D'Andre Ferby run for 3 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
98.1%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+8
98.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 8 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.2%
D'Andre Ferby run for 2 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
98.1%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+22
98.9%
D'Andre Ferby run for 22 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:36
Nate Terry 2 Yd pass from Jaquez Johnson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-12.5
TD · Q3 0:00
Brandon Doughty 7 Yd pass from Nacarius Fant (Garrett Schwettman Kick)
+9.6
TD · Q4 13:18
D'Andre Ferby run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST down
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com