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UTEP

UTEP 13 at Southern Miss 34

USM
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.3USM 89.3%Jalen Richard 9 Yd pass from NickMullens (Two-Point Run ConversionFailed)AWAY 3 - HOME 13 · Q2 0:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:15 · Jalen Richard 9 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior+24.9Home team on offense+10.4Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:15: Jalen Richard 9 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — USM win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:27: Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 27 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 10 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:09: LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +5.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:45: Tyler Sarrazin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03USM 4th & 8 at UTEP 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45UTEP 4th & 11 at USM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:45USM 4th & 2 at USM 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:21UTEP 4th & 10 at USM 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:48UTEP 4th & 5 at USM 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.2
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:28UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:11UTEP 4th & 6 at USM 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:45USM 4th & 3 at UTEP 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−3.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:45UTEP 4th & 4 at USM 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:50USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:15USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:27USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:09UTEP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:45USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Mack Leftwich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Mack Leftwich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
91.5%
Alan Luna punt for 41 yds , Casey Martin returns for 9 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0991% → 91%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
91.3%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+11
91.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 11 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
91.3%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
91.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+9
91.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
91.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+23
91.3%
Ito Smith run for 23 yds to the UTEP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
91.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
90.9%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 6 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-5
90.9%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-2
91.0%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Warren Redix for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
91.0%
Alan Luna punt for 47 yds , Jalen Richard returns for no gain to the SoMis 36 Jalen Richard fumbled, UTEP Penalty, illegal formation (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
90.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
90.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
90.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
90.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Kelvin Fisher Jr.Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
90.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds, downed at the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5FG
17 plays · 77 yds · 8:4910% → 13%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
90.3%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 8 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 2
OWN 11
-5
90.3%
LaQuintus Dowell run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 6Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+12
90.5%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Warren Redix for 12 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
90.3%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 6 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
90.2%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 3 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+7
90.3%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 7 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
90.2%
Darrin Laufasa run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+10
90.1%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 10 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
90.0%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 8
50
0
90.0%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
50
+16
88.6%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jaquan White for 16 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
88.0%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+8
87.9%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 8 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.9%
Mack Leftwich pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
88.0%
LaQuintus Dowell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 20 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
88.4%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
86.7%
Jay Mattox 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 16 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
87.4%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
87.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
87.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 3 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
86.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Ishmael HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.0%
LaQuintus Dowell run for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
85.1%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Jeremiah Laufasa, broken up by Deshadrick TrulySimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
85.5%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier ThigpenSimilar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
86.2%
Alan Luna punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8FUMBLE
15 plays · 63 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
85.7%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
85.6%
Jalen Richard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 13 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-6 Yards) to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
85.7%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
85.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+3
85.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+22
85.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 22 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.4%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
86.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
85.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 15 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
86.8%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
86.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
86.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 8 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
87.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
87.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Michael LewisSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-10
86.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Nick Usher for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 36 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by UTEP Gino Bresolin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:4917% → 19%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
83.2%
Darrin Laufasa run for 3 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
82.6%
Hayden Plinke run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+25
83.3%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Cole Freytag for 10 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Cornell Armstrong) to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
82.0%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 5 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
81.3%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
81.9%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Hayden Plinke, broken up by D'Nerius AntoineSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
81.5%
Jay Mattox 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 0:3383% → 89%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+38
83.4%
Jalen Richard run for 38 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
85.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 26 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
85.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 9Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.3%
Jalen Richard 9 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
87.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
88.7%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 33 yds, downed at the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
88.4%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 8 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+2
87.8%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 2 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.0%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Darrin LaufasaSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
88.2%
LaQuintus Dowell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
88.8%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Alan Luna punt for 52 yds, downed at the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 1:3089% → 96%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+36
88.6%
Ito Smith run for 36 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
89.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
89.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+26
89.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 26 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
95.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 27 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:166% → 9%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
94.0%
Darrin Laufasa run for 8 yds to the UTEP 34 Darrin Laufasa fumbled, forced by Kalan Reed, recovered by UTEP Sterling Napier for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Cole FreytagSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
93.9%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+39
93.8%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jeremiah Laufasa for 39 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
92.6%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
92.6%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+10
93.4%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 10 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
92.6%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Warren Redix, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
92.6%
LaQuintus Dowell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 12
OPP 14
-5
93.6%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Jerome Daniels) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 17
OPP 19
+11
93.8%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jeremiah Laufasa for 11 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
91.4%
Jay Mattox 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1794% → 99%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.7%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
93.7%
MULLENS, Nick slant pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY UTEP personal foul (JONES, Alvin) 15 yards to the USM44, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
94.1%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
94.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+3
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 4
50
+5
93.5%
SARRAZIN, Tyler punt 40 yards to the UTEP10, MCEACHERN, H. return to the UTEP18 (OSBORNE, Evan), PENALTY UTEP substitution infraction 5 yards to the UTEP45, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
94.2%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+31
94.2%
Ito Smith run for 31 yds to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
94.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
94.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for no gain to the UTEP 10Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
98.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 10 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:451% → 7%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.6%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jeremiah Laufasa for 4 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
98.6%
Darrin Laufasa run for 4 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
98.7%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
98.6%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Cole Freytag for 17 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
98.4%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+14
98.3%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Cole Freytag for 14 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
98.4%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.4%
Mack Leftwich run for 5 yds to the SoMis 1 Mack Leftwich fumbled, forced by D'Nerius Antoine, recovered by UTEPSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2496% → 99%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Traun RobersonSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+39
95.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 39 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.2%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+14
96.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 14 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
96.2%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
96.2%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
96.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Da'Carlos RenfroSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+8
99.2%
Tyler Sarrazin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.4%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Tyler Batson for 5 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
99.4%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Tyler Batson for 2 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+9
99.4%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 9 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+34
99.3%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jaquan White for 34 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Tyler Batson, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Jeremiah LaufasaSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.3%
Mack Leftwich run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Darrin Laufasa, broken up by Elijah ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20Uncategorized
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:5299% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.4%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
99.4%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
99.6%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.6%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+24
99.6%
Jalen Richard run for 24 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.6%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-1
99.6%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
99.6%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:27
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 27 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q4 10:09
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q4 14:54
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 10 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com