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UTSA

UTSA 23 at North Texas 30

UNT
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior−14.6Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q3 5:58: Jalen Rhodes run for no gain Jalen Rhodes fumbled, recovered by NoTex Kishawn McClain , return for 45 yds, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +17.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:34: Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +21.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:55: Willy Ivery run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +22.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:30: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Halen Steward for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED), (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED) — UTSA win probability +24.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:51: DaMarcus Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +31.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:40UTSA 4th & 8 at UNT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:10UNT 4th & 22 at UNT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:02UTSA 4th & 7 at UNT 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:24UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:18UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:11UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:00UTSA 4th & 7 at UNT 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at UNT 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−2.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:50UNT 4th & 18 at UTSA 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:51UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.5%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:31UNT 4th & 14 at UTSA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:13UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:54UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:18UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:34UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:55UNT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:30UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:51UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
23.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
23.6%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
23.6%
Eric Keena punt for 35 yds , Derrick Dick returns for no gain to the NoTex 45 Derrick Dick fumbled, recovered by TexSA Derrick Dick NORTH TEXAS Penalty, kick catching interference (Sed Ellis) to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 13:40
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
24.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
24.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Malik Dilonga for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+7
24.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+1
24.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 1 yd to the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
25.0%
DaMarcus Smith run for 5 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
25.0%
DaMarcus Smith run for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
25.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Turner Smiley for 5 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
25.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
25.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 25
OWN 32
+14
25.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 14 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
25.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-11
25.0%
DaMarcus Smith sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 11 yards to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 22
OWN 35
+5
24.8%
Eric Keena punt for 30 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
26.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 14 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
26.0%
Aaron Grubb run for 3 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
26.1%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
26.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
27.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
27.2%
DaMarcus Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
27.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 5 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
26.8%
Eric Keena punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5472% → 75%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
27.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+21
27.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 21 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
27.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
26.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+12
26.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 12 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
26.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+8
26.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 8 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
24.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 79 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
25.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 18 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
26.3%
DaMarcus Smith run for 40 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
27.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+7
27.5%
DaMarcus Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSA 7 DaMarcus Smith fumbled, recovered by NoTex DaMarcus Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
27.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Carlos Harris) to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
27.5%
DaMarcus Smith run for 11 yds DaMarcus Smith fumbled, forced by Marcos Curry, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:0474% → 74%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
25.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+20
26.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 20 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
25.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the TexSA 48 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 13
OWN 38
-4
25.4%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Chad Polk for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+3
26.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+1
26.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+30
26.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 32 yds , Tre Johnson returns for 30 yds to the NORTHTEXAS 32 TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3729% → 35%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
28.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
28.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
28.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
28.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+7
28.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive holding (Bennett Okotcha) to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
35.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
32.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
32.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
32.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 16Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+7
32.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
32.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
33.3%
Daniel Portillo punt for 42 yds , Tre Johnson returns for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0236% → 34%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.7%
DaMarcus Smith run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
37.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+8
36.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
37.7%
DaMarcus Smith sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
36.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
35.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+4
34.3%
Eric Keena punt for 44 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 4 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:4767% → 69%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
33.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+9
32.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Nate Brooks) to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
32.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
32.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+13
31.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 13 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
31.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
31.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+9
30.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
30.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
30.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+12
30.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 12 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
30.0%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
30.8%
Daniel Portillo 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:5536% → 39%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.8%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
35.5%
DaMarcus Smith run for 13 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
37.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 14 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
37.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
37.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
35.5%
DaMarcus Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
37.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
39.1%
Trevor Moore 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
33.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 55 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
32.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 13 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
32.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
30.8%
Aaron Grubb run for 4 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
30.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
30.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
30.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
30.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
29.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jarrian Roberts for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+1
30.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+12
31.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 12 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-2
31.6%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
35.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
35.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 6 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
35.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
37.8%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
38.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Drew Douglas) to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
40.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
36.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Darvin KidsySimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 18
OPP 43
0
35.4%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Calvin Minor, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
33.5%
Blake Macek punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3666% → 50%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
33.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
33.2%
Aaron Grubb run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
32.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Anthony Wallace) to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
50.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain Jalen Rhodes fumbled, recovered by NoTex Kishawn McClain , return for 45 yds, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 4:2446% → 69%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
53.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
53.2%
Tyrell Clay run for 11 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
51.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+8
48.8%
Tyrell Clay run for 8 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
49.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
48.8%
Derrick Dick run for 5 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
52.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jalen RhodesSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
52.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 9 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
54.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
52.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 11 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:3939% → 71%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
38.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+22
41.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 22 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
43.8%
DaMarcus Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+14
41.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 14 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
47.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+27
47.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 27 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.5%
Willy Ivery run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:2538% → 61%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
62.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+13
59.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 13 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
58.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 13 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
57.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Aron Taylor for 9 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+12
55.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 12 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
55.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
55.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+6
58.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
55.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Halen Steward for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED), (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
39.0%
Chad Davis return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3953% → 89%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
53.3%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 12 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
55.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
57.4%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Chris Loving for 4 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+54
56.7%
DaMarcus Smith run for 54 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
DaMarcus Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
80.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
79.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
79.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+8
80.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
80.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Roderick Young) to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
78.5%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
79.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+8
81.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
80.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Zac WhitfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
91.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
91.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
91.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
91.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 9
OPP 35
-5
89.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
89.7%
Blake Macek punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
90.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 8 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+15
89.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kishawn McClain) to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-10
89.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (William Cavanaugh) to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 20
OWN 24
0
90.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+14
90.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 14 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
89.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aron Taylor, broken up by James GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
96.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:51
DaMarcus Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+31.7
TD · Q4 9:30
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Halen Steward for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED), (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED)
-24.1
TD · Q4 13:55
Willy Ivery run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+22.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com