2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:01 · Chris Ayers punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 25 , Jenson Stoshak returns for 19 yds to the FlAtl 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:01: Trey Rodriguez run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +4.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:05: Jason Driskel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +8.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:04: Greg Joseph 25 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:34: Alex McGough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +9.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:41: Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +9.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 13:47FAU 4th & 2 at FIU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.2%54% to convertField goal49.1%−0.189% to makePunt48.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:01FIU 4th & 7 at FAU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it46.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%average punt
- Q2 5:04FAU 4th & 9 at FIU 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snapGo for it69.7%−1.025% to convertField goalTheir call70.7%89% to makePunt63.6%−7.1average punt
- Q2 0:02FAU 4th & 17 at FIU 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snapGo for it65.5%−2.714% to convertField goalTheir call68.2%60% to makePunt61.5%−6.7average punt
- Q3 5:45FIU 4th & 6 at FAU 30, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snapGo for it23.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call23.7%−0.156% to makePunt21.7%−2.2average punt
- Q3 5:45FAU 4th & 1 at FIU 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.8%70% to convertField goal70.1%−4.727% to makePunt71.6%−3.1average punt
- Q3 5:45FAU 4th & 4 at FIU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.0%48% to convertField goal73.5%−1.545% to makePunt72.5%−2.6average punt
- Q4 7:59FIU 4th & 17 at FAU 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q4 7:51FAU 4th & 1 at FIU 49, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 6:01FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.5%97% to makeGo for two53.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:05FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:34FIU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.6%97% to makeGo for two28.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:41FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.9%97% to makeGo for two90.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:01FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 1:33FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.1%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1DOWNS15 plays · 62 yds · 1:1349% → 49%
Q1 13:47
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+12
49.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 12 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+20
49.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 20 yds to the FlaIn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
49.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 7 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
50.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 9 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+19
50.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Julian Williams for 19 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
49.8%
Alex McGough sacked by Azeez Al-Shaair and Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 32 Alex McGough fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Nate Ozdemir , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0751% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 6:01
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+19
53.9%
Chris Ayers punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 25 , Jenson Stoshak returns for 19 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5856% → 68%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
56.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 5 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-5
56.1%
DRISKEL, Jason pass complete to STOSHAK, Jenson for 18 yards to the FIU35 (WILSON, Deonte;JOHNSON, Tyree), PENALTY FAU ineligible downfield on pass (DEBEOR, Dillon) 5 yards to the FAU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+19
55.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey for 19 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+8
58.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
59.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey for 9 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+7
59.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey for 7 yds to the FlaIn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
59.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tony Thomas for 7 yds to the FlaIn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-13
64.5%
Alex McGough sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaIn 35 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 23
OWN 35
0
65.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for no gain to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 23
OWN 35
-10
65.6%
Alex McGough sacked by Hunter Snyder for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 33
OWN 25
+11
65.8%
Stone Wilson punt for 51 yds , Jenson Stoshak returns for 11 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7FG9 plays · 56 yds · 3:5871% → 79%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
70.6%
Greg Howell run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Anthony Wint) to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
71.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 16 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 0
0
70.5%
JOHNSON, Jaquez rush for 2 yards to the FIU21 (GUEST, Jordan), PENALTY FAU holding off-setting, PENALTY FIU face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+14
71.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 14 yds to the FlaIn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3024% → 34%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
76.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 21 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-9
75.0%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 47 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Clinton Taylor) to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 19
OWN 37
+2
76.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 2 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+40
76.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 40 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
73.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+11
73.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 11 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9MISSED FG19 plays · 52 yds · 1:3270% → 71%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
71.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 8 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
72.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 8 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
73.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Richard LeonardSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
72.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 12 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
72.4%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Darrian Dyson and Anthony Wint for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11FG20 plays · 65 yds · 9:1531% → 32%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-3
69.4%
McGOUGH, Alex rush for 7 yards to the FIU13 (LEBLANC, C.;HENDRICKSON, Tr), PENALTY FIU illegal formation 3 yards to the FIU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
68.3%
Alex McGough sacked by Trey Hendrickson and Hunter Snyder for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+8
69.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 8 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
68.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 9 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
67.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Thomas Owens) to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+3
68.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 3 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-10
68.1%
Alex McGough sacked by Steven Leggett for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+15
70.2%
WILSON, Stone punt 49 yards to the FAU15, STOSHAK, Jenson return to the FAU15 (MEDLOCK, Sam;MATILUS, J.), PENALTY FAU roughing the kicker (SOLOMON, Kamrin) 15 yards to the FAU49, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
65.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 4 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12TD18 plays · 78 yds · 8:0474% → 93%
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
74.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tyler Cameron, broken up by Richard LeonardSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
83.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 8 yds to the FlaIn 16 for a 1ST down lat. to Marcus Clark for 5 yds to the FlaIn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT13 plays · 28 yds · 4:4210% → 5%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
89.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 9 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
88.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Clinton Taylor, broken up by Ocie RoseSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+15
89.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Freedom Whitfield) to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-11
88.5%
Alex McGough sacked by Hunter Snyder for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 21
OWN 48
+6
89.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 15
OPP 46
-2
89.7%
Alex McGough sacked by Trey Hendrickson and Brandin Bryant for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 48 Alex McGough fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Chris Miller , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 7:51
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
95.7%
Dalton Schomp punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15INT TD6 plays · 29 yds · 1:324% → 1%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
96.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 13 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
96.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 3 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+13
96.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 13 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+58
99.4%
Alex McGough pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Young return for 58 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16TD7 plays · 54 yds · 1:281% → 3%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
99.5%
Alex McGough run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Brandin Bryant) to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
96.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Julian Williams for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17END OF GAME7 plays · 11 yds · 0:1699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:41
Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 1:34
Alex McGough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 13:05
Jason Driskel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+8.7