Try the model
UNT

North Texas 13 at Marshall 30

MRSH
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.1MRSH 98.2%Nick Smith 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 27 · Q3 11:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:34 · Nick Smith 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+28.4Home team on offense+23.2Score differential+16.0Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:40: Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — UNT win probability +0.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 4:54: Nick Smith 34 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:18: Remi Watson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:30: Hyleck Foster run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:09: DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UNT made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54MRSH 4th & 10 at UNT 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:13MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 20, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:52UNT 4th & 5 at MRSH 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:39MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:14UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:14UNT 4th & 30 at MRSH 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:56MRSH 4th & 6 at UNT 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:34MRSH 4th & 5 at UNT 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:34UNT 4th & 8 at MRSH 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:55MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:00UNT 4th & 5 at MRSH 9, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:00MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 22, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:08UNT 4th & 18 at MRSH 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00MRSH 4th & 2 at UNT 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:08MRSH 4th & 10 at UNT 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:00MRSH 4th & 3 at UNT 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:40MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:18MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:30MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:09UNT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.5%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.5%
Eric Keena punt for 37 yds , Deandre Reaves returns for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:2296% → 96%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.4%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
96.4%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
96.4%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to HUNT, Justin (BROOKS, Nate), PENALTY NT holding (BROOKS, Nate) 10 yards to the NT47, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
96.4%
Remi Watson run for 26 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
96.4%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+18
96.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Remi Watson for 18 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.4%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
96.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 27 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Marcus Smith for 2 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Eric Keena punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deandre Reaves at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:1396% → 95%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
95.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 3 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+12
95.8%
Hyleck Foster run for 12 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
95.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 26 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
95.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
95.9%
Hyleck Foster run for 4 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+13
95.9%
Hyleck Foster run for 13 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
95.9%
Hyleck Foster run for 11 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
95.9%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
95.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-4
95.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 17Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
95.3%
Nick Smith 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.2%
DaMarcus Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.3%
DaMarcus Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
95.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
95.3%
Eric Keena punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Deandre Reaves at the Marsh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:1295% → 96%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
95.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 35 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
95.4%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
95.4%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+6
95.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 6 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.4%
Remi Watson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Willy Ivery run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
96.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Marcus Smith for 8 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
96.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 5 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
96.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
96.3%
Eric Keena punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Deandre Reaves at the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-7
96.4%
Hyleck Foster run for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 5Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 17
OWN 5
+15
96.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 15 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
96.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete, broken up by Sir Calvin WallaceSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
96.2%
Tyler Williams punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:554% → 4%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
50
0
95.9%
DaMarcus Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 10
50
+5
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith run for 9 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
95.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 5 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 5
OPP 31
-1
96.0%
DaMarcus Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
96.7%
Chase Litton sacked by Malik Dilonga for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+2
96.6%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deandre ReavesSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
96.5%
Tyler Williams punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
95.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
95.9%
DaMarcus Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
95.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+17
95.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 17 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-20
95.7%
DaMarcus Smith sacked by Blake Keller and Ryan Bee for a loss of 20 yards to the Marsh 48Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 30
OPP 48
0
96.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 30
OPP 48
0
96.2%
Blake Macek punt for 37 yds, downed at the Marsh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 4:2697% → 98%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+24
96.5%
Hyleck Foster run for 24 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
96.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 7 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
96.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Davonte AllenSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
96.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
96.4%
WILLIAMS, Tyler punt 58 yards to the NT0, touchback, PENALTY NT roughing the kicker (LYNN, Jarrod) 5 yards to the MARSHALL47, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
96.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 14 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
96.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 2 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
96.6%
Hyleck Foster run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
96.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Davonte AllenSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+19
96.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 19 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
96.7%
Hyleck Foster run for 4 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
96.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Justin Hunt for 6 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Chad Davis) to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Hyleck Foster run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
97.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+10
97.6%
DaMarcus Smith run for 10 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.4%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
97.6%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Tee Goree for 17 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.4%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
97.5%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Antavis RoweSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+13
97.5%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 13 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
97.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 4 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
98.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
98.2%
SMITH, DaMarcus rush for no gain to the MARSHALL35 (BEE, Ryan), PENALTY MARSHALL personal foul (BEE, Ryan) 15 yards to the MARSHALL20, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
98.0%
Trevor Moore 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:2698% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.2%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
98.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 6 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
98.1%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Davonte AllenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
98.1%
Remi Watson run for 17 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
98.2%
Remi Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
98.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 21
-5
98.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (Sandley Jean-Felix) to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 26
+12
98.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Remi Watson for 12 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
98.2%
Nick Smith 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
97.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Marcus Smith for 7 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+14
97.9%
DaMarcus Smith run for 14 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.9%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
97.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
98.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
98.0%
Blake Macek punt for 46 yds, downed at the Marsh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
98.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
98.3%
Hyleck Foster run for 1 yd to the Marsh 5Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
98.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deandre ReavesSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+9
98.1%
Tyler Williams punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 38 , Tre Johnson returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
98.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 9 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Taj Letman) to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
98.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 16Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
98.1%
DaMarcus Smith run for 7 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
98.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Smith, broken up by Kendall GantSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
98.0%
Trevor Moore 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
98.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 6 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+2
98.3%
Chase Litton run for 2 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
98.4%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+3
98.2%
Tyler Williams punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 25 , Tre Johnson returns for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.4%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Turner Smiley for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
98.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
50
+10
98.3%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Turner Smiley for 10 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
98.3%
DaMarcus Smith run for 2 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
98.3%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Darvin Kidsy, broken up by Antavis RoweSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-10
98.4%
DaMarcus Smith sacked by D.J. Hunter and Ryan Bee for a loss of 10 yards to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Blake Macek punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:2199% → 99%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 5 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Davonte AllenSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+20
99.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 20 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.1%
Hyleck Foster run for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
99.1%
Hyleck Foster run for 5 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete, broken up by Anthony WallaceSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+27
99.0%
Ryan Yurachek run for 27 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 1 yd to the NoTex 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
99.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deandre Reaves, broken up by Zac WhitfieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-1
99.1%
Chase Litton sacked by T.J. Tauaalo and Austin Orr for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
99.2%
Nick Smith 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21INT
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
99.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 38 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Marcus Smith for 6 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
99.0%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+10
99.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 10 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-5
99.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Michael Banogu) to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+18
99.2%
DaMarcus Smith pass intercepted Evan McKelvey return for 18 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 32 yds · 5:35100% → 100%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
99.6%
Remi Watson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
99.6%
Remi Watson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.6%
Hyleck Foster run for 1 yd to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
99.6%
Hyleck Foster run for 8 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
99.6%
Hyleck Foster run for 5 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.6%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 13Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
99.8%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+4
99.8%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 3
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 2:471% → 1%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
99.5%
Willy Ivery run for 9 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+15
99.5%
Willy Ivery run for 15 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.4%
Willy Ivery run for 9 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
99.4%
Willy Ivery run for 3 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.4%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.4%
A.J. Ezzard run for 6 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
99.4%
A.J. Ezzard run for 10 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.4%
DaMarcus Smith run for 6 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
98.8%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:30
Hyleck Foster run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q1 1:18
Remi Watson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q4 1:09
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com