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USM

Southern Miss 44 at Charlotte 10

CLT
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.9CLT 17.3%Blake Brewer 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 7:19
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Q1 7:19 · Blake Brewer 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Home team on offense+0.7Pregame prior−34.7Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:49: Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +2.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:44: Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:29: Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:54: Lee McNeill run for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +3.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:41: Blake Brewer kickoff for 60 yds , Jalen Richard return for 95 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 12 of 12USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:52USM 4th & 4 at CLT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19CLT 4th & 7 at USM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:49CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:47USM 4th & 4 at CLT 21, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:48CLT 4th & 8 at USM 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 2 at CLT 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−0.6
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:16CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:09USM 4th & 14 at USM 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:45CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:49CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:58CLT 4th & 9 at USM 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:36CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:41USM 4th & 5 at USM 46, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:43USM 4th & 18 at USM 45, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:13CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 44, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:02CLT 4th & 22 at USM 25, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:02USM 4th & 18 at CLT 41, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:03CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 11, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:37USM 4th & 5 at CLT 9, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:49USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:49USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:44USM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:29USM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:54CLT Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:41USM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:56USM Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.0%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
13.0%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
13.0%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin Duke, broken up by Dylan BradleySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
13.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
13.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
13.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 4 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
13.5%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
13.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 14 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
13.4%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
13.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
13.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Jalen RichardSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
13.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:0815% → 17%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
15.2%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+37
15.2%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 37 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
15.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
15.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+7
15.4%
Matt Johnson run for 7 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
15.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Zach Bumgarner for 14 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
15.5%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.4%
Lee McNeill run for no gain to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
17.3%
Blake Brewer 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:3083% → 84%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
17.3%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
17.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+69
16.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 69 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-7
16.4%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 4Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 17
OWN 4
+10
16.4%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 10 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
16.2%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
16.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4884% → 84%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
16.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Devon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
16.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
16.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
15.7%
Stephen Brauchle 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:5916% → 17%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.1%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the Charl 25Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.1%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Justin Bolus for 15 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
16.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 27 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
17.2%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
17.2%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
16.8%
Lee McNeill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
16.7%
Blake Brewer 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4884% → 84%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
16.1%
Jalen Richard run for 12 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
15.8%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+11
15.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
15.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
15.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
16.1%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the Charl 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
16.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
17.2%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Daquan Lucas) to the Charl 10Similar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
17.2%
Matt Johnson run for 6 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
17.2%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the Charl 16Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
16.9%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Zach BumgarnerSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
16.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
16.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
17.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Jalen HoltSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+1
17.3%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+3
17.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for 3 yds to the Charl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
18.0%
Lee McNeill sacked by Dylan Bradley and Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 16Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+3
17.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
17.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
17.3%
Arthur Hart punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:4383% → 85%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
17.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Cameron Tom) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+35
18.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ricky Parks for 35 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
16.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
16.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by DaQuavius ReidSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+9
17.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 9 yds to the Charl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
16.9%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Charl 13Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+9
16.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the Charl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
16.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brandon Farmer) to the Charl 19Similar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
16.9%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to DAVIS, Daythan (HOLT, Jalen), PENALTY CHA holding (HOLT, Jalen) 10 yards to the CHA9, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
16.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
14.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
15.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+7
15.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
15.6%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 31Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-2
15.3%
Andrew Buie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+1
14.9%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 1 yd to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 36 yds , Korey Robertson returns for no gain to the SoMis 34 Korey Robertson fumbled, recovered by Charl Chris MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
16.6%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted, touchback. Kalan Reed return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3285% → 94%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
15.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
15.1%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
14.0%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to THOMAS, Michael for 4 yards to the USM35 (LUCAS, Daquan), PENALTY USM illegal block (BATES, Oliver) 15 yards to the USM16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 25
OWN 16
+16
14.2%
Jalen Richard run for 16 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
14.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Tanner FlemingSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+25
14.4%
Jalen Richard run for 25 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
13.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
13.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Ardy HolmesSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+30
13.3%
Jalen Richard run for 30 yds to the Charl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:469% → 9%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
9.4%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
9.1%
Lee McNeill pass complete to T.L. Ford for 3 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+10
9.4%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 10 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
9.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
9.3%
Andrew Buie run for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
9.2%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin Duke, broken up by Michael SmithSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
8.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:3193% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
7.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+11
7.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
6.8%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-2
6.6%
Nick Mullens run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
7.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
6.7%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
6.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Daquan LucasSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+14
6.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
6.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Charl 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
6.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor MariniSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+12
6.8%
Nick Mullens run for 12 yds to the Charl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ Thompson, broken up by Desmond FloydSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
6.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Charl 4Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:353% → 7%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
2.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
50
+13
3.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to T.L. Ford for 13 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
3.4%
Matt Johnson run for 11 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
3.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
3.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
6.8%
Lee McNeill run for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
2.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 11Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+14
2.7%
Lee McNeill pass complete to T.L. Ford for 14 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
2.6%
PHILLIPS, Kalif rush for 75 yards to the USM0, clock 04:36, PENALTY USM offside off-setting, PENALTY CHA illegal use of hands off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the Charl 25Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by Andrew BoltonSimilar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.5%
Arthur Hart punt for 53 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 6 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
1.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+8
1.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
1.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
1.4%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
1.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+6
1.5%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+3
1.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 34 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for 3 yds to the Charl 49 CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal block (Greg Cunningham Jr.) to the Charl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:193% → 3%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-8
2.8%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 5
+4
2.5%
Bradan Smith run for 4 yds to the Charl 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+24
2.5%
Bradan Smith run for 24 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
2.8%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Darian Yancey return for 36 yds to the Charl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:03100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
0.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Devin Farrior) to the Charl 7Similar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.4%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
0.3%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted Cornell Armstrong return for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
0.4%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 8 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-2
0.4%
Delaunte' Thornton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-9
0.4%
Tyler Matthews sacked by Desmond Floyd for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 13
50
-5
0.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Tyler Sarrazin) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 18
OWN 45
+22
0.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 31 yds , Ardy Holmes returns for 22 yds to the Charl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
0.3%
Bradan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
0.3%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-3
0.3%
Lee McNeill sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
0.3%
Arthur Hart punt for 41 yds , Jalen Richard returns for no gain to the SoMis 13 Jalen Richard fumbled, recovered by Charl Eric HerkleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 28MISSED FG
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.2%
Garrison Duncan run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-15
0.3%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. Ford, broken up by Brian Anderson CHARLOTTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Austin Duke) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 22
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Chris Montgomery, broken up by Picasso Nelson Jr.Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 22
OPP 25
+42
0.2%
Blake Brewer 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.2%
MATTHEWS, Tyler pass complete to HOLMES, T. for 12 yards to the USM37, out-of-bounds (TUCKER, Najee), PENALTY USM holding (ANDERSON, Brian) 3 yards to the USM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 13
OWN 22
+15
0.2%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal procedure (15 Yards) to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
0.2%
Tyler Matthews pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
0.2%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 12 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
0.2%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 15 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
0.2%
THORNTON, D. rush for 4 yards to the CHA29 (FLOYD, Desmond), PENALTY USM illegal block (HARRIS, Jerry) 15 yards to the CHA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+7
0.2%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 7 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 18
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Delaunte' Thornton run for no gain to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 18
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Tyler Matthews pass incomplete to Tyre'oune HolmesSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 35 yds, downed at the Charl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Chris MontgomerySimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Bradan Smith run for no gain to the Charl 6Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+5
0.1%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the Charl 11Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
0.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the Charl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 31DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.1%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 5 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+8
0.1%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 8 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
0.1%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 22 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
0.1%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 4 yds to the Charl 10Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
0.1%
Daythan Davis run for no gain to the Charl 10Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+1
0.1%
Delaunte' Thornton run for 1 yd to the Charl 9Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+2
0.2%
Tyler Matthews run for 2 yds to the Charl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
0.1%
Garrison Duncan run for 5 yds to the Charl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:44
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q3 5:41
Blake Brewer kickoff for 60 yds , Jalen Richard return for 95 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-4.3
TD · Q3 8:29
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com