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UTSA

UTSA 10 at Southern Miss 32

USM
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.1USM 77.6%Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q2 8:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:38 · Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense+6.4Pregame prior+15.3Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:37: Stephen Brauchle 22 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +6.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:37: Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 5 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK) — USM win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:56: Stephen Brauchle 39 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:53: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:06: Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:35UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:50UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:40USM 4th & 3 at USM 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46UTSA 4th & 8 at USM 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38USM 4th & 1 at UTSA 8, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%−1.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:38UTSA 4th & 18 at UTSA 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:53UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:37USM 4th & 5 at UTSA 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:37UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:56USM 4th & 5 at UTSA 22, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:22UTSA 4th & 10 at USM 13, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:06UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:44USM 4th & 8 at USM 47, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:49UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 35, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:35USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:37USM Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:53UTSA Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:06USM Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
73.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-2
73.5%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
73.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan II, broken up by Ja'Boree PooleSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+6
73.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 6 yds to the SoMis 26 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2673% → 74%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
73.3%
Jalen Richard run for 12 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
73.4%
Jalen Richard run for 9 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
73.4%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
73.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 47 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
73.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+3
73.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
73.6%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+4
73.7%
Derrick Dick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+6
73.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
73.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
74.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+19
74.1%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
74.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
74.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+16
74.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 16 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
74.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+7
74.3%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+14
74.4%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Bennett Okotcha return for 14 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
74.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-3
73.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by D'Nerius Antoine and Naim Mustafaa for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
74.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds, downed at the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
74.6%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
75.0%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
74.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+3
74.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 48 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3426% → 25%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
74.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 19Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
74.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+11
74.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 11 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.3%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
74.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
73.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
73.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 17 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
73.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
73.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
73.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan II, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
74.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
75.3%
Ito Smith run for 21 yds to the SoMis 41 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 4
OWN 26
+1
75.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
75.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 16 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
76.1%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 44 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Marcus Davenport, recovered by TexSA Stanley Dye Jr. , return for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
73.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+24
73.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 9 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Anthony Swain) to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
73.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17 Dalton Sturm fumbled, forced by Terrick Wright, recovered by SoMis Kalan Reed , return for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3076% → 78%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
75.6%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+6
75.8%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+44
75.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 44 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
77.0%
Jalen Richard run for 10 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
77.0%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
77.0%
Nick Mullens run for 3 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
76.6%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the TexSA 8Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+25
77.6%
Stephen Brauchle 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
77.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
77.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-9
78.2%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 18
OWN 23
+16
78.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 47 , Jalen Richard returns for 16 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
79.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
79.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
79.2%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Michael Egwuagu return for no gain to the TexSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
78.3%
Williams,J rush up middle for 4 yards to the UTSA35 (PARKER, Elijah), PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the UTSA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+4
78.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+6
79.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
79.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds, downed at the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4779% → 86%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
79.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+21
79.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 21 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
80.2%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SOUMISS 49 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
80.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 24 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
80.7%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
80.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSA 5Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus DavenportSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
86.1%
Stephen Brauchle 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
84.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
84.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
84.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb, broken up by Devonta FosterSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
84.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:0187% → 88%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
86.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+18
86.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 2 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Jason Neill) to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
87.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+3
87.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+26
86.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 26 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.6%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the TexSA 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
88.0%
Stephen Brauchle 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:2387% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
86.9%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
87.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor MariniSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
86.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
87.3%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+13
87.3%
Ito Smith run for 13 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
87.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
87.2%
SMITH, Ito rush draw play for 11 yards to the UTSA25 (Wheeler;Davenport), PENALTY USM holding (FARRIOR, Devin) 10 yards to the UTSA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 46
-12
87.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 3 yds to the SoMis 43 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Devin Farrior) to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 32
OWN 42
+37
86.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 37 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
87.3%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+12
87.3%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Baker) 12 yards to the UTSA5, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 5 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
94.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Brian Anderson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 27 Dalton Sturm fumbled, recovered by SoMis Andrew Bolton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3296% → 98%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
95.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
95.8%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+5
95.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 5 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
98.2%
Stephen Brauchle 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:031% → 8%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+9
98.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 9 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+47
98.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 47 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
98.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
95.2%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.4%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Bennett Okotcha return for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:227% → 8%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
93.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+20
93.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
92.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
92.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
92.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
92.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aron Taylor, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
92.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan II, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
94.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Trae CollinsSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
92.5%
Daniel Portillo 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1694% → 99%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.4%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
94.4%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+53
94.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 53 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
95.2%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
95.2%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
98.7%
Peyton Hall run for 3 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
98.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce Taylor, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+12
98.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 12 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
98.6%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+10
98.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
98.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-7
98.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Brian Anderson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Devin Farrior) to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
99.1%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.1%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
99.5%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.5%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-10
99.5%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 47 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+9
99.4%
Jalen Richard run for 9 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 3
OPP 48
-5
99.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+6
99.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 30 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 6 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-10
99.4%
Rhodes rush up middle for 6 yards to the UTSA40, out-of-bounds (ANDERSON, Brian), PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the UTSA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+11
99.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 11 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 14
OWN 29
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:37
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 5 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
+8.5
FG · Q2 1:37
Stephen Brauchle 22 yd FG GOOD
+6
TD · Q3 5:53
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com