Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 34 at UTSA 31

UTSA
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+9.3UTSA 26.5%Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryceTaylor for 38 yds for a TD, (DanielPortillo KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 17 · Q3 12:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:52 · Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 38 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−15.1Home team on offense−5.5Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:52: Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 38 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:39: Ricky Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +10.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:19: Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +14.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:38: Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 57 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +28.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:10: Jonathan Barnes 32 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +37.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00LT 4th & 2 at LT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50UTSA 4th & 8 at LT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50LT 4th & 21 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:26LT 4th & 2 at UTSA 2, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:47UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33LT 4th & 4 at LT 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:14UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:52UTSA 4th & 5 at LT 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:19LT 4th & 6 at LT 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:38LT 4th & 10 at UTSA 34, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:39UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:47LT 4th & 13 at UTSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−4.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:31UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:10LT 4th & 1 at UTSA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−7.0
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−32.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:40LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:32UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:47LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:52UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:39LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:19UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:38UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
21.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kameron McKnight for 16 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
21.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
21.2%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+1
21.2%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
21.2%
Gerald Shouse punt for 44 yds , Derrick Dick returns for no gain to the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3522% → 22%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
22.1%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+25
21.8%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted for a TD Bryson Abraham return for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
21.8%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+6
21.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
21.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
21.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
22.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for no gain to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
22.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kameron McKnight for 7 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+3
22.0%
Jeff Driskel run for 3 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+30
21.9%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Trevor Baker return for 30 yds to the LaTch 8 Trevor Baker fumbled, forced by Kameron McKnight, recovered by TexSA Marcus DavenportSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1123% → 24%
Q1 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
23.3%
Aaron Grubb run for 4 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
23.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 8Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
24.2%
Daniel Portillo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 7 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
23.7%
Jarred Craft run for 17 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
23.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
23.5%
Driskel sideline pass complete to Henderson for 8 yards to the UTSA31 (Baker), PENALTY LATECH illegal use of hands (Robinson) 15 yards to the LATECH46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 25
OWN 46
+4
23.7%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 21
50
0
23.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 21
50
0
23.9%
Jeff Driskel run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 21
50
0
24.1%
Gerald Shouse punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
25.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
25.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
25.3%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
24.9%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Lloyd Grogan return for 9 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5475% → 77%
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
24.7%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
24.7%
Jeff Driskel run for 4 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
25.0%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 2Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
23.4%
Jonathan Barnes 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1924% → 23%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
23.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
23.9%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-1
23.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Russell Farris for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
23.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
22.8%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Michael Egwuagu return for 28 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5126% → 32%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
26.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
26.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 4 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
32.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 10 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4571% → 79%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.4%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
28.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kameron McKnight for 7 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
29.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 4 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
29.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
28.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Sanford Seay for 5 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
28.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
27.6%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
27.7%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
27.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense (Kevin Strong Jr.) to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+32
27.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 32 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.7%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
24.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-4
25.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Tyler Porter and Nick Thomason for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
23.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Kentrell BriceSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
23.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
22.7%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-3
22.2%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 43 Jeff Driskel fumbled, recovered by LaTch Jeff DriskelSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
22.4%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Sanford Seay, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+2
23.2%
Gerald Shouse punt for 49 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 2:0624% → 25%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
24.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+10
24.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 10 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
24.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-2
24.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Vernon Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
23.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
25.6%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+1
25.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+4
25.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+2
24.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 2 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 0:5676% → 87%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
24.4%
Driskel sideline pass incomplete to Henderson (Okotcha), PENALTY UTSA holding (Gaines) 10 yards to the LATECH40, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
22.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Kameron McKnightSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
23.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
21.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Sanford Seay for 18 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
21.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Sanford Seay for 21 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
21.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, roughing passer (Marcos Curry) to the TexSA 4Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.7%
Driskel sideline pass incomplete to Henderson, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Okotcha) 2 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jarred Craft for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
16.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:0817% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
16.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 13 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
18.0%
Aaron Grubb run for 4 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
18.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
18.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-4
18.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the LaTch 37 TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive holding (JaBryce Taylor) to the LaTch 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
17.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+9
17.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+38
26.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 38 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:1376% → 89%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
24.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 23Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
24.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Kameron McKnightSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+18
25.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
22.4%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
22.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Marlon Watts for 11 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
22.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 7 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
21.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+13
23.0%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
22.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
22.3%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
22.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Josh GastonSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
11.4%
Ricky Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:2016% → 31%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
15.5%
Derrick Dick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 46 Derrick Dick fumbled, forced by C.J. Cleveland, recovered by TexSA David Morgan IISimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
15.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
15.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 5 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
16.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
16.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 6 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
16.4%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+8
15.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+16
16.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 16 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
17.3%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+5
16.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 5 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
31.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Joseph Brunson) to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
24.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
24.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+19
25.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
21.9%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
21.9%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+7
24.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Marlon Watts for 7 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
23.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4026% → 55%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
25.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
25.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 5 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
26.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 6 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+57
54.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 57 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+47
45.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 47 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
38.6%
Marcus Gaines run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-2
38.7%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
40.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
45.3%
Gerald Shouse punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
50.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 7 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 3
OWN 15
-1
51.3%
Derrick Dick run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
49.4%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
48.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1757% → 49%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
43.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 15 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
41.7%
Jeff Driskel run for 3 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
41.7%
Jeff Driskel run for 4 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-10
42.0%
Craft rush up middle for 2 yards to the UTSA35 (Douglas;Price), PENALTY LATECH holding (Dugas) 10 yards to the UTSA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
48.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Trent Taylor, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
50.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
55.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
58.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
56.1%
Halen Steward run for 1 yd to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
56.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to David Morgan II for 9 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
59.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
59.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
60.3%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
58.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
55.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 30 yds, downed at the LaTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:1850% → 94%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
50.3%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Sanford SeaySimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+26
50.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kameron McKnight for 26 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
44.9%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+19
48.4%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 19 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
43.4%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
41.3%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
39.9%
Marlon Seets run for 2 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
37.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Trent Taylor for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
36.9%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
38.0%
Jeff Driskel run for 2 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+32
5.9%
Jonathan Barnes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb, broken up by Kentrell BriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:10
Jonathan Barnes 32 yd FG GOOD
-37.2
TD · Q4 13:38
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 57 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
+28
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com