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PRST

Portland State 66 at North Texas 7

UNT
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scorePRST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:44 · Marcus Kinsella punt for 44 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 20 yds to the NoTex 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−53.9Score differential−33.9Garbage-time factor−16.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin+6.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:30: Alex Kuresa pass complete to Darnell Adams for 34 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +2.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:50: Nate Tago run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +6.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:23: Nate Tago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +10.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:06: Alex Kuresa pass complete to Thomas Carter III for 56 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +7.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:50: David Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK) — PRST win probability +6.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 9 of 15PRST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 5 at PRST 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25PRST 4th & 8 at PRST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:32UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:30UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:50UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:23UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:16UNT 4th & 1 at PRST 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:16UNT 4th & 22 at PRST 37, down 28
    Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:06UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:27PRST 4th & 2 at UNT 29, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:13UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 33, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:54PRST 4th & 7 at PRST 29, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:34UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 14, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:00PRST 4th & 2 at UNT 46, up 52
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:27UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 29, down 52
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 27, down 59
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:27UNT 4th & 5 at PRST 39, down 66
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:44PRST 4th & 6 at PRST 43, up 66
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:24UNT 4th & 2 at PRST 46, down 66
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:53PRST 4th & 7 at PRST 49, up 66
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:30UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 40, down 66
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PRST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 7:30PRST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50PRST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:23PRST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:16PRST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:06PRST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:50PRST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:13PRST Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:21PRST Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:27PRST Touchdown, up 65 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:02UNT Touchdown, down 60 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
51.9%
PORTLAND ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
51.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the PrtSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
51.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
51.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the PrtSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
51.9%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 4 yds to the PrtSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
51.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
51.9%
Blake Macek punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
52.1%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Alex Kuresa for 25 yds to the PrtSt 45 for a 1ST down PORTLAND ST Penalty, illegal block (Chad Bach) to the PrtSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 8
OWN 32
-5
52.2%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 40 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
52.1%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Cameron ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
52.1%
David Jones run for 1 yd to the PrtSt 31Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+1
52.2%
Paris Penn run for 1 yd to the PrtSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
52.5%
Willy Ivery run for 6 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
52.5%
Willy Ivery run for 2 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
52.3%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Willy Ivery for 3 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
52.5%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 4 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-8
52.7%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-5
52.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Willy Ivery) to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+5
52.2%
PORTLAND ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
52.2%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
52.1%
Blake Macek punt, downed at the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:4048% → 51%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
51.9%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Cameron Thompson for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
51.7%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Cameron Thompson, broken up by Kishawn McClainSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+34
49.0%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Darnell Adams for 34 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
49.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
49.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Tee Goree for 5 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+1
49.5%
Eric Keena punt for 59 yds , Josh Kraght returns for 1 yd to the PrtSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:3851% → 58%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
49.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Zac Whitfield) to the PrtSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
49.3%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Josh Kraght for 14 yds to the PrtSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
48.7%
Nate Tago run for 18 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
48.6%
Alex Kuresa run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
48.7%
Nate Tago run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
48.8%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Chase Loftin for 14 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
48.5%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Chase Loftin for 9 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
48.5%
David Jones run for 2 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
42.3%
Nate Tago run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
43.4%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+7
43.3%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 7 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
43.2%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
43.2%
Eric Keena punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:1058% → 70%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
42.1%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Thomas Carter III, broken up by Kishawn McClainSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
42.2%
Nate Tago run for 11 yds to the PrtSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
41.9%
Alex Kuresa run for 9 yds to the PrtSt 42Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+25
41.4%
David Jones run for 25 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
41.3%
David Jones run for 25 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
40.0%
David Jones run for 7 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.0%
Nate Tago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
32.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
32.4%
Eric Keena punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:1970% → 67%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Paris PennSimilar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+70
32.6%
David Jones run for 70 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
50
+8
31.1%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the PrtSt 42Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
31.3%
Willy Ivery run for no gain to the PrtSt 42Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
31.2%
Jarrod Lynn run for 1 yd to the PrtSt 41Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
30.9%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 1 yd to the PrtSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
31.7%
PORTLAND ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Xavier Coleman) to the PrtSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-4
31.7%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the PrtSt 29Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 14
OPP 29
-8
31.8%
Andrew McNulty sacked by Sadat Sulleyman for a loss of 8 yards to the PrtSt 37Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 22
OPP 37
0
31.6%
Blake Macek punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:3673% → 81%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
26.6%
Nate Tago run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 18Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
26.2%
Nate Tago run for 11 yds to the PrtSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
26.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chad Davis) to the PrtSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
18.9%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Thomas Carter III for 56 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
17.1%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
16.5%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
16.5%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
16.4%
Eric Keena punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2285% → 93%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
14.8%
Nate Tago run for no gain to the PrtSt 20Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
14.9%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Cameron Thompson, broken up by James GraySimilar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
15.3%
Alex Kuresa run for 11 yds to the PrtSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
15.0%
David Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the PrtSt 27Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+37
14.9%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Darnell Adams for 37 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
14.4%
Alex Kuresa sacked by Cortney Finney for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+1
14.4%
David Jones run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+30
14.6%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Darnell Adams for 21 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
13.9%
Alex Kuresa run for 1 yd to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.4%
David Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
6.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
6.5%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+10
6.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Antoinne Jimmerson for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
6.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
6.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 13 yds to the NoTex 37 Jeffrey Wilson fumbled, forced by Beau Duronslet, recovered by PrtSt Artuz ManningSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 16FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1293% → 92%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
6.6%
Nate Tago run for no gain to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
6.6%
Kieran McDonagh pass complete to Darnell Adams for 8 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
6.8%
Kieran McDonagh pass incomplete to Darnell Adams, broken up by Zac WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
7.6%
Jonathan Gonzales 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.7%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:4794% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
5.8%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Cameron Thompson for 9 yds to the PrtSt 40Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+60
5.6%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to David Jones for 60 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
3.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 10 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
3.2%
Andrew McNulty sacked by Sadat Sulleyman for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
3.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
3.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q3 14:13
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
3.1%
Eric Keena punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.7%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Patrick OnwuasorSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
4.7%
Steven Long run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 29Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
4.9%
Alex Kuresa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
5.4%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 52 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for no gain to the NoTex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.5%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
2.4%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 15
OWN 14
0
2.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
2.4%
Eric Keena punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
3.3%
Steven Long run for 16 yds to the PrtSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
3.1%
Steven Long run for a loss of 2 yards to the PrtSt 44Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+5
3.2%
Alex Kuresa run for 5 yds to the PrtSt 49Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
3.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
3.1%
Alex Kuresa pass incomplete to Darnell AdamsSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
3.7%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 23 yds, downed at the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
1.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Darvin KidsySimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
1.1%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Marcus Smith, broken up by Xavier ColemanSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
1.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+11
1.1%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 11 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
1.0%
Eric Keena punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Josh Kraght at the PrtSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 4:5998% → 99%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
2.0%
Steven Long run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 31Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+25
1.7%
Steven Long run for 10 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
1.6%
Alex Kuresa run for no gain to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
1.6%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Jamarr Graves for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+28
1.6%
Steven Long run for 28 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
1.5%
Steven Long run for 5 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.0%
Steven Long run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
0.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+11
0.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 11 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
0.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-3
0.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
0.3%
Eric Keena punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PrtSt 23 , Josh Kraght returns for no gain to the PrtSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 26TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
1.0%
Steven Long run for 6 yds to the PrtSt 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+4
1.0%
Josh Kraght run for 4 yds to the PrtSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
1.0%
Josh Kraght run for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 32Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+68
0.7%
Mitchell Thompson run for 68 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
0.3%
Josh Greer sacked by Michael Doman for a loss of 4 yards to the PrtSt 48Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+9
0.3%
Josh Greer pass complete to Marcus Smith for 9 yds to the PrtSt 39Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Josh Greer pass incomplete to Darvin Kidsy, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Josh Greer pass incomplete to Willy IverySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
0.6%
Steven Long run for a loss of 4 yards to the PrtSt 35Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
0.6%
Steven Long run for no gain to the PrtSt 35Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+8
0.6%
Steven Long run for 8 yds to the PrtSt 43Similar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+20
0.7%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 44 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 20 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Josh Greer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
0.2%
Josh Greer pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+13
0.1%
Josh Greer pass complete to Marcus Smith for 13 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Josh Greer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Josh Greer pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+8
0.2%
Josh Greer pass complete to A.J. Ezzard for 8 yds to the PrtSt 46Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Josh Greer pass incomplete to A.J. EzzardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
0.4%
Mitchell Thompson run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 49Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-2
0.4%
Aidan Wilder run for a loss of 2 yards to the PrtSt 47Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+2
0.4%
Mitchell Thompson run for 2 yds to the PrtSt 49Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
0.4%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:280% → 0%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
0.1%
Andrew Tucker run for 8 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+5
0.1%
A.J. Ezzard run for 5 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+8
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith run for 8 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+2
0.1%
Andrew Tucker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 9 yds to the PrtSt 49Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+8
0.1%
Andrew Tucker run for 8 yds to the PrtSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith run for 15 yds to the PrtSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Marcus Smith for 17 yds to the PrtSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.1%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 10Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 10
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:23
Nate Tago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)
-10
TD · Q2 8:06
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Thomas Carter III for 56 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q2 2:50
David Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Gonzales KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com