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USM

Southern Miss 10 at Marshall 31

MRSH
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2015 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Jarquez Samuel
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense+27.0Score differential+20.0Pregame prior+3.5Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:08: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:25: Devon Johnson run for 16 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST down — MRSH win probability +4.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:25: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:58: Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 61 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. SACK · Q3 1:49: Nick Mullens sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 8 yards Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by Marsh Jarquez Samuel , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Nick Smith KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 11 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:18MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:05USM 4th & 19 at USM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:55USM 4th & 10 at MRSH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36MRSH 4th & 5 at USM 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36USM 4th & 6 at MRSH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:25USM 4th & 4 at MRSH 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:24USM 4th & 2 at MRSH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−1.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:42MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 3 at MRSH 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:27MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:57USM 4th & 10 at MRSH 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:22MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:36USM 4th & 2 at MRSH 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:17MRSH 4th & 5 at USM 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:39USM 4th & 1 at MRSH 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:08USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:05MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:58MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
64.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 16 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
64.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Corey Tindal for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+5
64.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 52 yds, downed at the Marsh 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+27
64.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 27 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
64.2%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
64.3%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
64.3%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
64.2%
Tyler Williams punt for 45 yds, downed at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:3536% → 41%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
63.9%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+4
64.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+11
64.1%
Jalen Richard run for 11 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
63.9%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
63.9%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+31
63.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 31 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
62.8%
Jalen Richard run for 12 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
62.5%
Ito Smith run for 21 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:0361% → 65%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
61.0%
Chase Litton run for 5 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
61.4%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
60.9%
Remi Watson run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
61.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+17
61.4%
Chase Litton run for 17 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.4%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.7%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
62.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-13
62.9%
Nick Mullens sacked by Nyquan Harris for a loss of 13 yards to the SoMis 7 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Nick Mullens) to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 22
OWN 7
+3
63.6%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 19
OWN 10
0
63.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
63.6%
Devon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
64.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 3 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
63.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete, broken up by Andrew BoltonSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
63.1%
Tyler Williams punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0138% → 40%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.9%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
61.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Evan McKelveySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
61.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 15 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Gary ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
61.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ricky Parks for 14 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
60.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 7 yds Casey Martin fumbled, forced by Evan McKelvey, recovered by Marsh Antavis RoweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Davonte Allen, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
63.2%
Devon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
62.0%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Kalan Reed return for no gain to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:4840% → 41%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Corey TindalSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+31
59.9%
Jalen Richard run for 31 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
58.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
58.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Gary ThompsonSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
59.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
58.8%
Parker Shaunfield 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1961% → 63%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
61.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 15 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
61.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 15 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
62.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
62.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deandre ReavesSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+5
61.2%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete, PENALTY USM offside (BRADLEY, Dylan) 5 yards to the USM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
62.2%
Remi Watson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+2
61.4%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
63.4%
Nick Smith 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11MISSED FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 4:1140% → 42%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.8%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMAS, Michael, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (ALLEN, Rodney) 15 yards to the USM40, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
59.0%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+21
59.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Nyquan Harris) to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
58.2%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
57.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Evan McKelveySimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
58.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+17
59.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
57.2%
Nick Mullens run for 9 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+1
57.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
57.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Brian AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
55.3%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Shawn PettySimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
57.7%
Parker Shaunfield 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ryan Bee Taj Letman return for no gain to the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0063% → 74%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
62.6%
Devon Johnson run for 16 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
64.6%
Devon Johnson run for 10 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
65.0%
Devon Johnson run for 11 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
65.6%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
65.5%
Remi Watson run for 8 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-2
64.6%
Remi Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+5
62.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Darian Yancey) to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
65.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 12 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
65.4%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
72.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
72.7%
Devon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
73.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 5 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
73.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
72.8%
Devon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
74.5%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
74.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Davonte AllenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
72.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deandre ReavesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
71.5%
Tyler Williams punt for 34 yds , Casey Martin returns for no gain to the SoMis 19 Casey Martin fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
72.4%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
72.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+15
73.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Devontre'a Tyler) to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
71.4%
Ito Smith run for 15 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
69.5%
Jalen Richard run for 10 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
69.5%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
69.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
69.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Keith BaxterSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
71.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Tiquan LangSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4376% → 87%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
75.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 8 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
77.6%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
77.4%
Remi Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+61
87.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 61 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FUMBLE
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:0615% → 14%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.1%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
84.4%
Nick Mullens run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
84.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 11 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
83.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
83.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
84.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 15 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
83.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
81.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-8
86.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 43 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by Marsh Ryan Bee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.5%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
90.4%
Chase Litton sacked by LaDarius Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
89.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus, broken up by Brian AndersonSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
89.6%
Tyler Williams punt for 53 yds, downed at the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:1910% → 3%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
90.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 6Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+3
90.3%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+3
97.4%
Nick Mullens sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 8 yards Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by Marsh Jarquez Samuel , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 70 yds · 1:493% → 2%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
97.1%
SMITH, Ito rush for loss of 5 yards to the USM22, out-of-bounds (LETMAN, Taj), PENALTY USM holding (PETERSON, A.) 10 yards to the USM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+5
97.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 5 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+17
97.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 17 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
97.0%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+16
98.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 16 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
97.9%
MULLENS, Nick pass complete to SMITH, Ito for no gain to the MARSHALL47 (HUNTER, D.J.), PENALTY USM holding (PARKS, Ricky) 10 yards to the USM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+3
98.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+20
98.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 20 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
97.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 29 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.5%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the Marsh 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.5%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the Marsh 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Jarquez SamuelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
98.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (AJ Addison) to the Marsh 2Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+5
98.7%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 7Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
98.7%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 7Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
98.7%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+5
98.6%
Tyler Williams punt for 48 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
50
+21
98.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the MARSHALL 44 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, roughing passer (Devontre'a Tyler) to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ Thompson, broken up by Taj LetmanSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
98.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Jarquez SamuelSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Corey TindalSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 10
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted, touchback. Rodney Allen return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.9%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+22
98.9%
Tyler Williams punt for 53 yds , Jalen Richard returns for 22 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Justice Hayes for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-5
98.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Norman Price) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+12
99.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 12 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey Martin, broken up by Ryan BeeSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
98.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Taylor Marini, broken up by Tiquan LangSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4199% → 100%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.3%
Devon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+7
99.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Davonte Allen for 7 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Tyler Williams punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26FUMBLE
15 plays · 67 yds · 2:311% → 0%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.5%
Justice Hayes run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 6 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
99.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Taylor Marini) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+20
99.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 20 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.4%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMAS, Michael, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (BAXTER, Keith) 15 yards to the MARSHALL33, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 6 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 5 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
99.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 8 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
99.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
99.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 13Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+57
99.7%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40 Jalen Richard fumbled, forced by D.J. Hunter, recovered by Marsh Rodney Allen , return for 42 yds to the Marsh 0 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (D.J. Hunter) to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 37Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:58
Chase Litton pass complete to Deandre Reaves for 61 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 0:25
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)
+9
SACK · Q3 1:49
Nick Mullens sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 8 yards Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by Marsh Jarquez Samuel , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Nick Smith KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com