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UTSA

UTSA 25 at UTEP 6

UTEP
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:17 · Jay Mattox 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior−4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:13: Jarveon Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +10.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:06: Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Michael Egwuagu return for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED) — UTSA win probability +10.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:34: Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 25 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTEP win probability +6.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:59: Autrey Golden run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14 — UTEP win probability +5.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:01: Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 15 — UTSA win probability +6.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 11UTSA made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 5 at UTSA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:56UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:54UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:47UTSA 4th & 13 at UTEP 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:47UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:28UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:15UTSA 4th & 8 at UTEP 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:15UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:19UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:17UTEP 4th & 6 at UTSA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:17UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 18 at UTSA 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:06UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:08UTSA 4th & 13 at UTEP 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−5.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:08UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:38UTSA 4th & 18 at UTEP 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−5.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at UTSA 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−2.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−10.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:59UTEP 4th & 7 at UTSA 14, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−8.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:01UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 33, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:52UTSA 4th & 4 at UTEP 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−3.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:21UTEP 4th & 6 at UTSA 27, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 11:13UTSA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:06UTSA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:34UTEP Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:47UTSA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.8%
Autrey Golden run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.8%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
40.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 7 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
40.8%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
40.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 9 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
40.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
40.8%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
40.8%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden Plinke, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
40.8%
Alan Luna punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
41.8%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 18 Team fumbled, recovered by TexSA Blake BogenschutzSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+2
41.9%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
42.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-5
42.1%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Darryl Godfrey) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+7
42.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds , Jaquan White returns for 7 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3INT
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
42.7%
Kavika Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Duke Wheeler) to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
42.8%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted Trevor Baker return for 32 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
42.0%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 1 yd to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-3
42.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aron Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-8
42.4%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Adrian Hynson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
42.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaquan White at the UTEP 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
43.1%
Ryan Metz run for no gain to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
43.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+4
42.8%
Ryan Metz run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
42.8%
Alan Luna punt for 53 yds , Derrick Dick returns for no gain to the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:1457% → 56%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
43.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 10Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+9
43.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
43.4%
Bogenschutz sideline pass incomplete to Morgan II, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (BEVERLY, Kalon) 11 yards to the UTSA30, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
43.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+19
43.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
50
+11
42.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
42.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 40Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+14
42.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 14 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
42.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
42.2%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
43.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Brett Winnegan for no gain to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
44.5%
Daniel Portillo 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
45.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 4 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
45.3%
Kavika Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
44.7%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
44.4%
Alan Luna punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0756% → 55%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
44.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
44.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 6 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
44.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
44.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete, broken up by Kalon BeverlySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
45.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
46.0%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 9 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
47.0%
Darrin Laufasa run for no gain to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
45.8%
LaQuintus Dowell run for no gain to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
45.2%
Alan Luna punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:5656% → 57%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
44.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
44.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+11
44.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
43.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 18 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
42.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
42.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 4 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
44.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
43.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
43.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
44.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan II, broken up by Ishmael HarrisonSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
42.6%
Daniel Portillo 30 yd FG GOOD UTEP Penalty, RI ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
43.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cedrick Lang for 5 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
44.1%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 4 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
44.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 4 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
44.1%
Kavika Johnson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
46.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
45.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
43.6%
Alan Luna punt for 52 yds, downed at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0356% → 53%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
44.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-9
43.6%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 17
OWN 1
+6
45.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+16
46.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 47 yds , Jaquan White returns for 16 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4748% → 45%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
48.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 10 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
49.7%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Tyler BatsonSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
49.3%
Ryan Metz run for 4 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
46.8%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden Plinke, broken up by Kevin Strong Jr.Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
45.3%
Jay Mattox 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
42.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 8 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
41.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Jarveon Williams, broken up by Ishmael HarrisonSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
41.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Jordan Gray) to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+4
43.1%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 4 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
43.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds , Jaquan White returns for no gain to the UTEP 30 Jaquan White fumbled, forced by Darryl Godfrey, recovered by TexSA Justin ChavezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:1962% → 60%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
37.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-10
37.3%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Sky Logan for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
40.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Jimmy MusgraveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
40.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
39.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-1
39.0%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
40.4%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
43.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 55 yds, downed at the UTEP 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2142% → 37%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
42.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-2
37.0%
Kavika Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:1064% → 77%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
36.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 16 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
34.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 19 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
33.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 18 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
23.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0726% → 16%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jeremiah Laufasa for no gain to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
26.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 3 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+40
15.7%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Michael Egwuagu return for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
15.4%
Ryan Metz run for 3 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
15.4%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
15.2%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+22
15.2%
Alan Luna punt for 52 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 22 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5088% → 88%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
12.2%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 47Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+29
12.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 29 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
11.8%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-3
12.0%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
12.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
12.2%
Daniel Portillo 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
14.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
13.8%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Cole FreytagSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+6
13.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 6 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+18
14.0%
N/A punt for 51 yds , Derrick Dick returns for 18 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2090% → 93%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
10.4%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
10.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+16
10.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
50
+16
9.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 16 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
9.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 9 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
9.3%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+5
9.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
6.8%
Blake Bogenschutz run for no gain to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
6.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-16
6.6%
Bogenschutz deep pass complete to Thomas Jr. for 20 yards to the UTEP0, clock 02:28, PENALTY UTSA illegal block (Baker) 16 yards to the UTEP36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 26
OPP 36
+8
6.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 8 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+45
7.1%
Daniel Portillo 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:0410% → 18%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
10.1%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 2 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+12
10.0%
Ryan Metz run for 12 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
10.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 25 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
11.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden Plinke, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
10.7%
LaQuintus Dowell run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+10
9.8%
Ryan Metz run for 10 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
10.5%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 3 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
11.0%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-5
11.0%
Ryan Metz sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+25
17.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 25 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
14.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 9 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
13.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
13.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jarveon Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-9
14.5%
Team run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 17 Team fumbled, recovered by UTEP Nick UsherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
20.1%
Autrey Golden run for 3 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
20.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
18.7%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Tyler Batson, broken up by Trevor BakerSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 7
OPP 14
0
17.4%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan White, broken up by Nate GainesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
10.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-7
10.9%
Sturm deep pass complete to Taylor,J for 25 yards to the UTSA40 (ROBERSON, Traun), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Taylor,J) 7 yards to the UTSA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+21
10.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Kalon Beverly) to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
10.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
10.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
10.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
10.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaquan White at the UTEP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:4310% → 11%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.0%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
10.6%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
10.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 13 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
11.4%
Ryan Metz sacked by Jason Neill and Kevin Strong Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 41Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+41
8.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 41 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
12.9%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
12.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
10.5%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted, touchback. Nate Gaines return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:1593% → 96%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
7.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 52 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
6.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
6.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+3
3.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 4
OPP 22
0
3.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb, broken up by Mookie CarlileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
1.7%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Nate Gaines return for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 31DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 1:262% → 2%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
1.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 15 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
1.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 11 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
1.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 7 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+6
2.0%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 6 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
2.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
2.1%
TEAM pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 4 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
1.7%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Jaquan White, broken up by Kevin Strong Jr.Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
1.5%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Hayden PlinkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:06
Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Michael Egwuagu return for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)
-10.5
TD · Q3 11:13
Jarveon Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q4 12:34
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 25 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com