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UNT

North Texas 14 at Southern Miss 49

USM
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:45 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 28 yds, downed at the NoTex 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+25.2Home team on offense+3.3Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−0.4Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:58: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +1.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:30: Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +5.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:46: Nick Mullens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:55: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:35: Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 62 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:04UNT 4th & 15 at USM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04USM 4th & 2 at UNT 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13UNT 4th & 19 at UNT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 18 at UNT 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45USM 4th & 10 at UNT 32, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:08UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 13, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30UNT 4th & 21 at UNT 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:46UNT 4th & 2 at USM 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 11 at USM 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:33UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:54UNT 4th & 8 at USM 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:35UNT 4th & 9 at USM 16, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:59USM 4th & 2 at USM 24, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:58UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 29, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:35UNT 4th & 1 at USM 15, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:58USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:30USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:46USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:55USM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:35USM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:45UNT Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:58USM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:35USM Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:03UNT Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:5617% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
82.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 12 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
82.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
82.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
82.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
82.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+20
82.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brian Anderson) to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
82.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
82.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-7
82.6%
Andrew McNulty sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+42
81.5%
Trevor Moore 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
81.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 16 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
81.6%
SMITH, Ito rush up middle for 10 yards to the NT45 (WALLACE, A.;MCCLAIN, K.), PENALTY USM holding 10 yards to the USM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+9
81.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 9 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+6
81.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 5
50
+3
81.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 3 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
81.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 46 yds, downed at the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
80.5%
Andrew McNulty run for 1 yd to the NoTex 2Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+8
80.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Turner Smiley for 8 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
80.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
80.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+20
80.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 20 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
80.4%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-1
80.5%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-7
80.7%
Andrew McNulty sacked by Michael Smith and Dylan Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 19
OWN 24
+21
80.8%
Eric Keena punt for 36 yds NORTH TEXAS Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1680% → 82%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+31
80.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 31 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
80.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+8
80.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 8 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
80.3%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 5Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5819% → 18%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
81.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 17 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
81.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
80.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
80.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
80.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-12
80.7%
Andrew McNulty sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 45
+14
81.8%
Eric Keena punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 20 , Casey Martin returns for 14 yds to the SOUMISS 41 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.5%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+42
81.6%
Ito Smith run for 42 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
82.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
82.0%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
81.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 28 yds, downed at the NoTex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3719% → 18%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
81.3%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+1
81.2%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 13
0
81.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for no gain to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
82.4%
Eric Keena punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3083% → 88%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
82.6%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+27
82.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 27 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
83.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
83.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 1 yd to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
82.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
83.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 6 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+8
83.0%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.0%
Jalen Richard run for 2 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.5%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
86.5%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-6
86.6%
DaMarcus Smith sacked by Michael Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 16
OWN 20
-5
86.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 21
OWN 15
0
86.8%
Eric Keena punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3488% → 94%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+42
87.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 42 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 3 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+7
87.8%
MULLENS, Nick PA pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY NT holding (WHITFIELD, Zac) 7 yards to the NT8, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
87.8%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
87.8%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMAS, Michael, PENALTY NT holding (DAVIS, Chad) 3 yards to the NT4, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.4%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11INT
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:037% → 7%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+61
92.8%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Carlos Harris for 61 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
91.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Naim MustafaaSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
91.9%
DaMarcus Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+6
92.3%
DaMarcus Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
92.1%
DaMarcus Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
91.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
91.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+4
92.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Cornell Armstrong) to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
91.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.7%
DaMarcus Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.4%
DaMarcus Smith pass intercepted, touchback. Cornell Armstrong return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
95.6%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
95.6%
Justice Hayes run for 7 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.6%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
95.3%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
95.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Chad DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
95.1%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+3
94.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds , Darvin Kidsy returns for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
94.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
94.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
94.5%
DaMarcus Smith sacked by Dylan Bradley and Darian Yancey for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
94.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Marcus SmithSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
94.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
95.0%
Eric Keena punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3696% → 99%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
96.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 26 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
96.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+6
96.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
96.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 9 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
96.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+21
96.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 21 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
96.4%
Jalen Richard run for 16 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+15
99.3%
MCNULTY, Andrew PA pass incomplete to SMILEY, Turner, PENALTY USM pass interference (ARMSTRONG, C.) 15 yards to the NT46, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 14 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
99.4%
MCNULTY, Andrew PA pass complete to GOREE, Tee for 40 yards to the USM0, clock 07:54, PENALTY NT holding (MILES, Chris) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 20
50
0
99.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Carlos HarrisSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 20
50
+4
99.4%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+8
99.4%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 8 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 62 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 58 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Turner Smiley for 9 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+6
99.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 6 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
99.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 16 yds to the SOUMISS 43 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (D'Nerius Antoine) to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.5%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+10
99.6%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 10 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.5%
Jamal Marshall run for 3 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
99.5%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-2
99.6%
Antoinne Jimmerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 9
OPP 16
0
99.5%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
99.7%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+6
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 6 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+1
99.7%
Justice Hayes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds, downed at the NoTex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
99.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 19 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+39
99.8%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Turner Smiley for 39 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Andrew McNulty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Andrew McNulty pass complete to Carlos Harris for 23 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 4 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+17
99.8%
Nick Mullens run for 17 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
99.8%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
99.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+19
99.8%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Willy Ivery run for 5 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Willy Ivery run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Andrew McNulty pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Eric Keena punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+29
99.9%
Tyler Matthews run for 29 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 35 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Willy Ivery run for 12 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
99.9%
Willy Ivery run for 24 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
99.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass incomplete to D'Aundrey BradleySimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
DaMarcus Smith pass complete to Darvin Kidsy for 6 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
DaMarcus Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
SMITH, DaMarcus deep pass incomplete to Rutherford, O., PENALTY USM personal foul (MUSTAFAA, N.) 4 yards to the USM3, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Willy Ivery run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 10 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Tyler Matthews run for 7 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:46
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q2 8:30
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+5
TD · Q3 8:55
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com