View as
Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:00 · Blake Brewer 55 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- MISSED FG · Q1 6:19: Austin Jones 36 yd FG MISSED — CLT win probability +2.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:36: Blake Brewer 36 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +2.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:42: Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +6.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:52: P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:34: Ryquell Armstead run for 2 yds to the Charl 23 — TEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 12TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 15:00TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%average punt
- Q1 12:44CLT 4th & 5 at TEM 46, tiedClose callPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.8%41% to convertField goal8.7%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call8.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:19TEM 4th & 4 at CLT 19, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snapGo for it88.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call88.7%−<0.177% to makePunt88.2%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:00CLT 4th & 9 at TEM 38, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.6%32% to convertField goalTheir call12.6%−<0.138% to makePunt12.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:06TEM 4th & 8 at CLT 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snapGo for it86.7%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%74% to makePunt85.9%−0.9average punt
- Q1 1:13CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:48CLT 4th & 7 at TEM 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call14.2%87% to makePunt12.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 14:48TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it86.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%average punt
- Q2 13:42CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.5%average punt
- Q2 3:36CLT 4th & 9 at TEM 19, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call13.3%77% to makePunt11.0%−2.3average punt
- Q2 1:30TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 30, up 7Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snapGo for it85.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 15:00CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it14.3%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q3 9:42CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q3 3:22CLT 4th & 18 at CLT 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.3%−1.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 3:22CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 27, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 13 at midfield, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 8:10TEM 4th & 8 at CLT 13, up 27Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−0.130% to convertField goal99.6%85% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 5:17CLT 4th & 4 at midfield, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 4:22CLT 4th & 7 at TEM 47, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 6:12TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.3%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:42TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:52TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:10TEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-10
7.0%
WALKER,P.J. pass complete to ANDERSON,Robby for 17 yards to the TEM47 (LUCAS, Daquan), PENALTY TEM holding (JOHNSON,Leon) 10 yards to the TEM20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 0:008% → 8%
TEMDrive 3MISSED FG11 plays · 61 yds · 5:1492% → 90%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
8.1%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Robby Anderson, broken up by Terrance WinchesterSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
8.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 14 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
8.1%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to John Christopher, broken up by Devin PearsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4MISSED FG7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1910% → 11%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
10.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Trent Bostick for 13 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
10.7%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. Ford, broken up by Stephaun MarshallSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
10.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for no gain to the Temp 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5FG8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5489% → 88%
Q1 4:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+34
11.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 34 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6MISSED FG12 plays · 71 yds · 2:1812% → 14%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
11.8%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 2 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+6
11.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 6 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
12.5%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Kalif Phillips for 35 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
13.5%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Justin Bolus for 16 yds to the Temp 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
CLTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:42
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
13.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD13 plays · 74 yds · 6:1986% → 89%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
14.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kip Patton for 9 yds to the Temp 35Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
13.4%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Adonis Jennings, broken up by Tank Norman for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Najee Tucker) to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+10
13.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 10 yds to the Charl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FG8 plays · 56 yds · 2:3612% → 16%
TEMDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0686% → 86%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
14.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 8 yds to the Temp 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
15.3%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Chris Montgomery for 8 yds to the Charl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
TEMDrive 14TD10 plays · 47 yds · 4:4687% → 92%
Q3 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
12.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Michael Felton for 4 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
13.6%
WALKER,P.J. pass complete to THOMPSON,Colin for 3 yards to the CHA0, clock 10:58, PENALTY TEM pass interference (THOMPSON,Colin) 15 yards to the CHA18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
9.2%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Richard Murphy, broken up by Sean ChandlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3893% → 98%
CLTDrive 17PUNT TD8 plays · 8 yds · 2:303% → 2%
CLTDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
1.9%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Justin Bolus, broken up by Nate L. SmithSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+64
1.8%
Arthur Hart punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CHARLOTTE 31 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, kick catching interference (22 Yards) to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-4
1.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20INT7 plays · 68 yds · 0:002% → 3%
TEMDrive 21TD9 plays · 25 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
CLTDrive 22DOWNS9 plays · 22 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 5:17
4TH & 4
50
0
0.1%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Bradan Smith for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23FUMBLE2 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
CLTDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:42
Jahad Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
-6
TD · Q3 5:52
P.J. Walker pass complete to Robby Anderson for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
-5.3
FG · Q2 3:36
Blake Brewer 36 yd FG GOOD
+2.4