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CSU

Colorado State 33 at UTSA 31

UTSA
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-4UTSA 19.9%Wyatt Bryan 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 33 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:53 · Wyatt Bryan 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior−4.6Home team on offense−19.9Score differential−8.6Garbage-time factor−7.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:00: Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:41: Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:20: Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 38 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:07: Jarveon Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +17.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 10:28: Jarveon Williams run for 85 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +24.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:15UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:00CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:21UTSA 4th & 1 at CSU 19, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:21CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:07UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:41UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:28CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:53CSU 4th & 3 at UTSA 3, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−11.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:28CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 40, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:36UTSA 4th & 14 at CSU 38, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.7 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:21UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:15CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:00UTSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:34CSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:41CSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:20CSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:07UTSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:28UTSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:3926% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
26.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 6 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
26.2%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
26.2%
Bogenschutz sideline pass incomplete to Thomas Jr. (Clyburn), PENALTY CS offside defense (Kawulok) 5 yards to the UTSA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+11
26.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
26.2%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+42
26.2%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 42 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
28.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:0672% → 72%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
28.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
28.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
28.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 12 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
28.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
28.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
28.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Bennett OkotchaSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
28.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
28.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 34 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
29.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 17 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
29.5%
Greg Campbell Jr. sacked by Kevin Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
29.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 16
OWN 39
0
28.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
28.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds , Joe Hansley returns for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4471% → 69%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
29.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 10 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
29.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
29.0%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
29.1%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
30.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Trent Matthews) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
30.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:2231% → 30%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
30.8%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
30.8%
Blake Bogenschutz run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
30.2%
Bogenschutz crossing pass complete to Thomas Jr. for 6 yards to the UTSA7 (Elliott), PENALTY UTSA holding (Anzaldua) 1 yards to the UTSA0, NO PLAY, Team safety, clock 04:25. for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
30.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+4
31.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-10
30.1%
Stevens crossing pass incomplete to Matthews,I, PENALTY CS holding (Cartwright) 10 yards to the CS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 19
OWN 32
0
30.7%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+30
31.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TEXASSAN 19 COLORADO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Jake Schlager) to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:2432% → 36%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
31.6%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 12 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
32.6%
Kenny Bias run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
32.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
32.7%
Aaron Grubb run for 4 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
32.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 16 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
33.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-1
35.3%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
34.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+36
36.3%
Daniel Portillo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
35.5%
Coleman Key pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 12 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
35.4%
Coleman Key pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
35.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
35.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-5
35.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (Hayden Hunt) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
36.5%
Hayden Hunt punt blocked by Justin Chavez blocked by Justin ChavezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4440% → 46%
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
39.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Reed Darragh) to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
39.7%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
46.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2655% → 63%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
44.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
44.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
43.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 5 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
43.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
42.8%
Steven Walker run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
42.6%
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
42.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 8 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
41.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
41.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+22
41.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 22 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
41.4%
Stevens post pass intercepted by Gaines at the UTSA0, Gaines return to the UTSA0, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Okotcha) 6 yards to the UTSA2, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:2742% → 41%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
42.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aron Taylor for 17 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
44.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
44.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Aron TaylorSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-4
43.2%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Martavius Foster and Joe Kawulok for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
41.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 51 yds , Joe Hansley returns for no gain to the ColSt 43 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (3 Yards) to the ColSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5958% → 56%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
42.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 4Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
42.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+5
44.5%
Matthews,I rush over left guard for 1 yard to the CS7 (Sanchez), PENALTY UTSA offside defense (Price) 5 yards to the CS11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OWN 11
-1
44.2%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:1958% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
42.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 25 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
40.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Deionte GainesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+16
40.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
39.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
39.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
26.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
30.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
30.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
30.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr. TEXASSAN Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
29.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
28.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon Cartwright, broken up by Marcos CurrySimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
29.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Sammie Long IVSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
30.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16INT
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:2331% → 39%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
30.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+4
30.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+11
29.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
31.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+40
33.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 40 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
38.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass intercepted DeAndre Elliott return for 19 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:3772% → 86%
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
28.3%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mauricio Sanchez) to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
27.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
26.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+6
25.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
14.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 38 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1320% → 39%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
19.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 22 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
21.4%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+22
20.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aron Taylor for 22 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
23.5%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 6 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-5
23.5%
Bogenschutz rush right for loss of 2 yards to the CS23, PENALTY UTSA illegal formation 5 yards to the CS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
23.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Aaron Grubb, broken up by Trent MatthewsSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+13
21.4%
Bogenschutz sacked for loss of 13 yards to the CS39 (Foster,M), PENALTY CS face mask (Foster,M) 13 yards to the CS13, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
39.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FG
17 plays · 84 yds · 7:1472% → 80%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
28.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 8 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
27.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
27.7%
Nick Stevens sacked by Michael Egwuagu for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+18
28.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 18 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
26.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
25.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Deionte GainesSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+29
26.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 29 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
23.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 11 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
23.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Kivon Cartwright) to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
23.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+14
23.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Xavier Williams for 14 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+6
23.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
23.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.2%
Team run for no gain to the TexSA 2 Team fumbled, recovered by ColSt Nick StevensSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
24.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
19.9%
Wyatt Bryan 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:2520% → 44%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
19.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+85
44.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 85 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
36.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Xavier WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
37.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+5
38.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 5 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
38.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:0645% → 39%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
45.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aron Taylor for 21 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
46.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 18 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
52.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aron Taylor for 9 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+4
52.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
54.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (JaBryce Taylor) to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+1
49.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 14
OPP 38
0
48.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
47.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
38.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23END OF GAME
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:4167% → 91%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
33.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 10 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
33.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+2
31.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
31.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon Cartwright, broken up by Darryl GodfreySimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+28
32.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 28 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
28.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
28.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
28.2%
Nick Stevens run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
12.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-4
9.6%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+1
9.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:28
Jarveon Williams run for 85 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
+24.3
TD · Q3 3:07
Jarveon Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q3 12:41
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 13 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com