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FAU

Florida Atlantic 17 at Charlotte 7

CLT
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:38 · Arthur Hart punt for 48 yds , Jenson Stoshak returns for no gain to the FlAtl 22 Jenson Stoshak fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Herb Miller
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior−21.8Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:58: Jaquez Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Tank Norman return for 28 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK) — CLT win probability +13.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:51: Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 36 — FAU win probability +8.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:43: Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Charl 14 — FAU win probability +14.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:15: Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 27 — CLT win probability +8.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Lee McNeill pass intercepted for a TD Ocie Rose return for 60 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +32.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10FAU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:48FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 49, tied
    Close callWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:38CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 22 at FAU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:51FAU 4th & 18 at CLT 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:51CLT 4th & 18 at CLT 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:59FAU 4th & 4 at CLT 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:37FAU 4th & 9 at CLT 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:47CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:47FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00FAU 4th & 10 at CLT 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:49CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:01FAU 4th & 1 at CLT 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−3.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:48CLT 4th & 23 at CLT 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:43FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:25CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−2.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:35CLT 4th & 4 at FAU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−2.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−4.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:51FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−4.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:15FAU 4th & 10 at CLT 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−3.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−19.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:28CLT 4th & 5 at FAU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:38FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:58CLT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:28FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 6 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
24.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
24.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 11 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
24.5%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
24.5%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
24.5%
Matt Johnson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
24.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
24.5%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 14 yds Workpeh Kofa fumbled, forced by Herb Miller, recovered by FlAtl Nick InternicolaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
25.4%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
25.4%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-6
25.4%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Desmond Floyd for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 35 Jaquez Johnson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Kelly Parfitt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
25.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 55 yds, downed at the Charl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
26.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the Charl 12Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
26.3%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+7
26.1%
Lee McNeill pass complete to T.L. Ford for 7 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
26.1%
Arthur Hart punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
26.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
26.7%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+13
26.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 13 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass intercepted Devin Pearson return for no gain to the Charl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
27.7%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 9 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
28.1%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to T.L. FordSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
28.0%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
28.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
28.1%
Andrew Buie run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-2
28.1%
Lee McNeill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 49Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 6
OWN 49
-19
27.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Charl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3872% → 75%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
27.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+7
27.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 7 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+4
27.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 4 yds to the Charl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
27.6%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the Charl 15Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
27.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 6 yds to the Charl 9 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
27.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Kelly Parfitt) to the Charl 14Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
25.3%
Jaquez Johnson 14 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
26.4%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Uriah LeMay for 9 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
26.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
26.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-1
26.7%
Matt Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-3
26.3%
Lee McNeill sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 29Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
25.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 48 yds , Jenson Stoshak returns for no gain to the FlAtl 22 Jenson Stoshak fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Herb MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:1774% → 73%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
26.4%
JOHNSON, Jaquez rush for 3 yards to the FAU25 (COOK, Nick), PENALTY CHA offside (BANKS, Brandon) 5 yards to the FAU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 5
OWN 27
0
25.8%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
26.0%
Jaquez Johnson run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
26.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 25 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
25.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Reggie Bain) to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-1
25.6%
Greg Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 46
-6
25.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 48 Jaquez Johnson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Jaquez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 48
0
26.5%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 48
0
26.9%
Ryan Rickel punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
27.1%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Kalif Phillips, broken up by Freedom WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
27.0%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+12
26.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 12 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
27.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 11 yds to the Charl 44 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive holding (Richard Murphy) to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+22
27.1%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted Jalen Young return for 22 yds to the Charl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FG
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4675% → 74%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
25.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 3 yds to the Charl 17Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-2
25.5%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 19Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-9
25.9%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Larry Ogunjobi for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+45
26.5%
Greg Joseph 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
24.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
24.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 36Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
24.9%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-9
24.4%
Lee McNeill sacked by Trevon Coley for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 27Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
23.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cre'von LeBlanc at the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
23.5%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
23.6%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
23.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 5 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
23.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 48 Jaquez Johnson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Jaquez JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+19
23.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Greg Howell for 19 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
23.3%
Marcus Clark run for 4 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
23.3%
Marcus Clark run for 3 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-1
23.7%
Marcus Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 27Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OPP 27
-7
24.3%
Dalton Schomp run for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 42 Dalton Schomp fumbled, recovered by Charl DaQuavius ReidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
25.1%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Sharrod Neasman return for 30 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
23.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the Charl 49Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
23.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Greg Cunningham Jr.Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
23.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate Terry, broken up by Branden DozierSimilar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
24.6%
Ryan Rickel punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+27
23.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 27 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
25.1%
Andrew Buie run for 1 yd to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
25.0%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
24.1%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Andrew BuieSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
23.4%
Arthur Hart punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
24.3%
HOWELL, Greg rush for loss of 1 yard to the FAU19 (OGUNJOBI, Larry), PENALTY CHA face mask (OGUNJOBI, Larry) 15 yards to the FAU35, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.1%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
23.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Henry Bussey FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
24.7%
Dalton Schomp punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
22.6%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the Charl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
23.4%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
23.1%
Greg Howell run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
22.4%
Marcus Clark run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
22.2%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.2%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the Charl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
22.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
22.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
23.8%
Ryan Rickel punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
22.0%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the Charl 23Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+19
22.1%
Kalif Phillips run for 19 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
23.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
23.3%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Zach BumgarnerSimilar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+26
22.3%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted Cre'von LeBlanc return for 26 yds to the Charl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
21.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tony Thomas for 23 yds to the Charl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
21.0%
Marcus Clark run for 1 yd to the Charl 4Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
21.0%
Tyler Cameron run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 5 Tyler Cameron fumbled, recovered by Charl Caleb Clayton-MolbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
21.7%
Kalif Phillips run for 1 yd to the Charl 18Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-6
21.7%
Kalif Phillips run for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 12Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+5
20.7%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 5 yds to the Charl 17Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
20.2%
Arthur Hart punt for 49 yds, downed at the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
22.1%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Keaston Sinicki) to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
21.2%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
21.2%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
21.5%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the Charl 42Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
22.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for no gain to the Charl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
23.0%
Austin Duke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 40Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
22.3%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by Trevon ColeySimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-9
21.0%
Lee McNeill sacked by Brandin Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 29 Lee McNeill fumbled, recovered by Charl Andrew Buie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 23
OWN 29
+1
19.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 46 yds , Cre'von LeBlanc returns for 1 yd to the FlAtl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
21.0%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-7
20.6%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Caleb Clayton-Molby for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 27 Jaquez Johnson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Greg Howell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
21.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tony ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+7
22.5%
Dalton Schomp punt for 59 yds , Mark Quattlebaum returns for 7 yds to the Charl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
19.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 6 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
20.5%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the Charl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
20.4%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
20.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
19.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Uriah LeMay, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:5080% → 79%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
19.9%
HOWELL, Greg rush for 1 yard to the FAU21 (KING, K.), PENALTY FAU holding (WOODS, Antonyo) 10 yards to the FAU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
20.1%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+17
20.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Marcus Clark for 17 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
19.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tony Thomas for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
18.8%
Marcus Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-3
19.9%
Marcus Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
21.1%
Dalton Schomp punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mark Quattlebaum at the Charl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
19.0%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Austin Duke for 10 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Dustin BowensSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
19.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 12 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
20.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
21.6%
Andrew Buie run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
21.1%
MCNEILL, Lee pass incomplete to BUMGARNER, Zach, QB hurry by AL-SHAAIR, Azee, PENALTY FAU roughing passer (AL-SHAAIR, Azee) 15 yards to the FAU31, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
23.1%
Lee McNeill sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 49 Lee McNeill fumbled, recovered by Charl Danny Book , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 28
OPP 49
+5
20.5%
JOHNSON, Matt rush for 3 yards to the FAU46 (SNYDER, Hunter), PENALTY FAU offside (COLEY, Trevon) 5 yards to the FAU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 23
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin Duke, broken up by Nate OzdemirSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 23
OPP 44
-9
19.6%
Lee McNeill sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 9 yards to the Charl 47Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 32
OWN 47
0
17.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cre'von LeBlanc at the FlAtl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28INT TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3683% → 69%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
17.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 6 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+28
30.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Tank Norman return for 28 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
33.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 16 yds Jenson Stoshak fumbled, forced by Anthony Covington, recovered by Charl Terrance WinchesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
40.8%
Kalif Phillips run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
40.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-5
40.3%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
40.1%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+1
37.6%
Matt Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
29.5%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
29.4%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
28.1%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
30.0%
Dalton Schomp punt for 52 yds, downed at the Charl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 32INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
34.4%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
33.8%
Kalif Phillips run for no gain to the Charl 4Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+13
32.0%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Richard Murphy for 13 yds to the Charl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
35.2%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Cre'von LeBlanc return for 1 yd to the Charl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 33MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2880% → 76%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
20.5%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
20.5%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the Charl 14Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-5
22.1%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 19Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
23.6%
Greg Joseph 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 34INT TD
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:4732% → 5%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
31.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
32.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 7 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
32.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 4 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
36.1%
Andrew Buie run for no gain to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+4
32.7%
MCNEILL, Lee pass incomplete to BOLUS, Justin (NEASMAN, Sharro), PENALTY FAU pass interference (NEASMAN, Sharro) 4 yards to the CHA42, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.5%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Austin DukeSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
34.3%
Kalif Phillips run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
38.9%
Kalif Phillips run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
38.8%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Justin Bolus for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
38.0%
Lee McNeill pass incomplete to Uriah LeMay, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+60
5.1%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted for a TD Ocie Rose return for 60 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 35INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
4.6%
Lee McNeill pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 9 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
5.0%
Lee McNeill pass intercepted Ocie Rose return for no gain to the Charl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 36PUNT
7 plays · -21 yds · 1:0096% → 97%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 17
OPP 41
-11
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 28
OWN 48
-3
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 31
OWN 45
0
3.5%
Dalton Schomp punt for 19 yds, downed at the Charl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Lee McNeill pass intercepted for a TD Ocie Rose return for 60 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-32.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:43
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Charl 14
-14.7
TD · Q4 10:58
Jaquez Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Tank Norman return for 28 yds for a TD, (Blake Brewer KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com