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USM

Southern Miss 56 at Texas State 50

TXST
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:22 · Lumi Kaba punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Pregame prior+4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:56: Jalen Richard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +16.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:49: Jalen Richard run for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +17.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:59: Tyler Jones run for 54 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +21.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:23: Jalen Richard run for 64 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +15.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:04: Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 4 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +15.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:49TXST 4th & 8 at USM 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:22TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54USM 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−5.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:41USM 4th & 21 at USM 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:32TXST 4th & 9 at USM 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:32USM 4th & 4 at USM 27, up 11
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:53TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 25, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:00TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:39USM 4th & 1 at TXST 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−2.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−11.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:11TXST 4th & 4 at USM 16, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 21 at TXST 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:23TXST 4th & 2 at USM 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:03TXST 4th & 4 at USM 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:47USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:41TXST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:00TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    48.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:34TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:09USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:56USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:49USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:36USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:12TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:59TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 6:23USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:04TXST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    4.6%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1345% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
55.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 27 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
55.1%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-5
55.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
55.1%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+13
55.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 13 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
55.1%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the TexSt 19 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 16
OPP 34
+10
55.1%
Jalen Richard run for 10 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
55.1%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+23
53.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:5354% → 55%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
54.1%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+6
54.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+59
54.2%
Robert Lowe run for 59 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
54.7%
Jones, Tyler Seam Route pass incomplete to Smith, Brandon, PENALTY USM pass interference (REED, Kalan) 11 yards to the USM11, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
54.7%
Chris Nutall run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
54.7%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
54.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
54.8%
Lumi Kaba 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2746% → 49%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
54.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 38 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
53.9%
Ito Smith run for 13 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
53.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
51.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 19 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
52.4%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
52.2%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
51.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Casey Martin at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 6:0350% → 64%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
50.4%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
50.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
50.3%
MULLENS, Nick crossing pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY TXST pass interference (Mims, David) 11 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
50.1%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+10
50.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 10 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
50.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+14
50.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 14 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
50.0%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-10
50.0%
RICHARD, Jalen rush up middle for 4 yards to the TXST12 (Alexcee, Damani), PENALTY USM holding (PETERSON, A.) 10 yards to the TXST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+12
50.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 12 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+10
50.1%
Jalen Richard run for 10 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
50.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.0%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.1%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.4%
Jalen Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:0839% → 48%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
39.4%
C.J. Best run for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
40.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 16 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
40.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Andrew Bolton) to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 5
OPP 35
0
41.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
48.1%
Tyler Jones run for 35 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
46.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Taylor Marini for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
45.2%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
45.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael Thomas, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
45.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 7 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
45.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
45.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-15
45.7%
MULLENS, Nick FLAT PATTERN pass complete to RICHARD, Jalen for 10 yards to the TXST41 (Jeter-Gilmon, J), PENALTY USM face mask 15 yards to the USM34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 27
OWN 34
-8
46.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Rashod Hill) to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 35
OWN 26
+14
46.8%
Jalen Richard run for 14 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 21
OWN 40
+19
46.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 19 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:0044% → 41%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
44.0%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+15
44.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 15 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
44.9%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+15
44.8%
Jones, Tyler slant pass incomplete to Smith, Brandon, PENALTY USM pass interference (PARKS, Tez) 15 yards to the USM22, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
45.7%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
45.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
44.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
40.9%
Lumi Kaba 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
41.0%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
40.7%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-3
40.8%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
41.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:2840% → 53%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
39.6%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
40.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+12
39.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
41.1%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
41.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 15 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
42.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 14 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
42.2%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
42.2%
Brandon Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Rhoades pass to Robert Lowe for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
48.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Damani Alexcee for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+3
49.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Trey McGowan, recovered by TexSt Brandon McDowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:2754% → 63%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
54.3%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-10
54.3%
Jones, Tyler deep out pass incomplete to Gaines, Jafus, PENALTY TXST holding (Bellard, Adrian) 10 yards to the USM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
52.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+32
62.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 32 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.7%
Jalen Richard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
62.3%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
62.4%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-2
61.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 0:5840% → 56%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
59.8%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
58.6%
Jalen Richard run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+15
58.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
57.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 30 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
49.4%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
48.9%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
48.3%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
47.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 49 yds, downed at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:4352% → 73%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
48.3%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-2
48.5%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+13
50.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to DJ Thompson for 13 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
47.4%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
47.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to DJ ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+34
48.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 34 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
44.1%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
43.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
45.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Easy AnyamaSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+12
47.0%
Jalen Richard run for 12 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
43.8%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.0%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FG
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:3629% → 38%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+66
28.6%
Tyler Jones run for 66 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
33.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
33.4%
Chris Nutall run for 7 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-1
31.9%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
38.0%
Lumi Kaba 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2267% → 86%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.0%
Nick Mullens run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
32.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
14.5%
Jalen Richard run for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:4318% → 15%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
18.1%
Chris Nutall run for 8 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
19.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
18.7%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
18.6%
Chris Nutall run for no gain to the TexSt 33 TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Melton) to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+10
17.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 10 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 15
OWN 28
-6
17.5%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 22
0
15.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 31 yds, downed at the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 1:1288% → 97%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
12.5%
Jalen Richard run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-2
12.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 7
50
+50
2.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 50 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 5:244% → 10%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
4.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+6
4.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
4.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
4.0%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
4.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+11
4.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
4.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+15
4.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 15 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
4.5%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
4.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
4.8%
Chris Nutall run for 2 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
4.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 16 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
5.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
5.0%
Jones, Tyler flag pass incomplete to Carden, Ryan, PENALTY USM pass interference (COLLINS, Trae) 8 yards to the USM2, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.2%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
29.6%
Tyler Jones run for 54 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3679% → 95%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.2%
Jalen Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
20.8%
Jalen Richard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
5.5%
Jalen Richard run for 64 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25DOWNS
19 plays · 64 yds · 4:206% → 4%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
6.3%
Jones, Tyler sideline pass incomplete to Gaines, Jafus (REED, Kalan), PENALTY TXST false start (Gaines, Jafus) 5 yards to the TXST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+6
6.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
6.3%
Jones, Tyler slant pass incomplete to White, Lawrence, PENALTY USM pass interference (TRULY, D.) 9 yards to the TXST45, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
7.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Kalan ReedSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-9
6.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Michael Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+17
6.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 17 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+7
7.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 7 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
7.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Brian Anderson and Darian Yancey for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+16
6.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 16 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+6
8.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 6 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+18
7.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 10 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Deshadrick Truly) to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
8.3%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
8.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
8.0%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
3.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26SF
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:0698% → 97%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
2.3%
Jalen Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
2.3%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-1
2.2%
Jalen Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 3Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 8
OWN 3
-1
2.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-1 Yards) to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 2
-1
2.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-1 Yards) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
3.1%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:422% → 18%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Chris NutallSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
2.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 16 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST down lat. to C.J. Best for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Tyler Jones for no gain to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
2.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+36
2.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 36 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 4 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:59
Tyler Jones run for 54 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q3 2:49
Jalen Richard run for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q3 5:56
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-16.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com