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UTEP

UTEP 50 at New Mexico State 47

NMSU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+7.6NMSU 97.5%Tyler Rogers pass complete to TeldrickMorgan for 19 yds for a TD, (ParkerDavidson KICK)AWAY 30 - HOME 44 · Q4 4:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:07 · Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 19 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 151Home team on offense+28.2Garbage-time factor+13.7Score differential+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.4Pregame prior−0.2Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:54: Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 26 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +15.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:34: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +32.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:42: Ryan Metz run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +50.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Parker Davidson 44 Yd Field Goal — NMSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Cedrick Lang 6 Yd pass from Ryan Metz — UTEP win probability +59.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 6
  1. Q1 5:21UTEP 4th & 9 at NMSU 33, down 6
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 4 at NMSU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:08NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:19UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:46NMSU 4th & 13 at UTEP 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 29, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:28NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:28NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:08UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 38, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−5.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:34UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 33, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:13NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:40NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:38UTEP Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:51NMSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:46NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:11UTEP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:29NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54UTEP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:34NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:07NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:08UTEP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:42UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2047% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
46.9%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
46.9%
Larry Rose III run for 15 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
46.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 26 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
46.9%
Xavier Hall run for 11 yds to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
46.9%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the UTEP 4Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
49.1%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:0352% → 53%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
48.5%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Autrey Golden for 7 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+15
48.5%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Autrey Golden for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
48.4%
Darrin Laufasa run for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
48.3%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 3 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+21
48.3%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jaquan White for 21 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
47.4%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4748% → 53%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
47.9%
Larry Rose III run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
48.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 5 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-13
48.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+49
47.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 49 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q1 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
52.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:3049% → 48%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
51.1%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Autrey Golden for 4 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
51.6%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 7 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
51.5%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
50.8%
Jaquan White run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
50.8%
Treyvon Hughes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-1
51.4%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jaquan White for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 9
OPP 33
0
52.3%
Mack Leftwich punt for 31 yds, downed at the NMxSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
51.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4549% → 47%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
51.4%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 2 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
51.2%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+8
52.1%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Darrin Laufasa for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+1
51.8%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+13
52.8%
Alan Luna punt for 41 yds , Teldrick Morgan returns for 13 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
52.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
52.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 55 yds, downed at the UTEP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
53.8%
Darrin Laufasa run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
53.8%
LaQuintus Dowell run for no gain to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
54.3%
Mack Leftwich pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
54.9%
Alan Luna punt for 20 yds, downed at the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
55.6%
Teldrick Morgan run for 9 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
56.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
55.5%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
56.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Ty Atencio for 8 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-2
56.2%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-9
55.5%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Alvin Jones and Nik Needham for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 13
OPP 33
0
53.1%
Tyler Rogers punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
55.5%
Darrin Laufasa run for 6 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
55.0%
Darrin Laufasa run for 2 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
55.4%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+17
56.3%
Alan Luna punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 25 , Teldrick Morgan returns for 17 yds to the NMxSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:0657% → 65%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
56.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 19 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+43
58.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 29 yds to the NEWMEXST 27 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dashone Smith) to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
59.9%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Morgan, T, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (NEEDHAM, Nik) 11 yards to the UTEP2, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.0%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the UTEP 1Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
60.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
60.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
60.1%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Taylor, Tyrain for 10 yards to the UTEP0, clock 03:30, PENALTY NMSU holding (Cunningham, A.) 10 yards to the UTEP20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
58.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+38
65.1%
Parker Davidson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12END OF HALF
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:1236% → 35%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.8%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
62.1%
Kavika Johnson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.4%
Mack Leftwich pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
64.1%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 11 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
62.0%
Mack Leftwich run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44 Mack Leftwich run for no gain to the UTEP 47 UTEP Penalty, illegal forward pass (Mack Leftwich) to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+3
63.6%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+14
64.2%
Mack Leftwich run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.4%
Mack Leftwich pass complete to Jaquan White for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-15
61.3%
LEFTWICH, Mack pass complete to LAUFASA, J. for loss of 4 yards to the NMSU38 (Ibekwe, Derek), PENALTY UTEP illegal block (ELMENDORFF, D.) 15 yards to the NMSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+15
65.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derek Ibekwe) to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
61.7%
Mack Leftwich pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
65.2%
Davidson, P kickoff 65 yards to the UTEP0, GOLDEN, Autrey return to the UTEP26 (Herrington, D), PENALTY NMSU offside 5 yards to the NMSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13FUMBLE
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0037% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
63.2%
Darrin Laufasa run for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+20
62.8%
Jaquan White run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, face mask (17 yards) (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
61.0%
Warren Redix run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+1
59.1%
Kavika Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
59.6%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
59.1%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-5
60.7%
UTEP Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
61.2%
Mack Leftwich run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28 Mack Leftwich fumbled, forced by Derek Ibekwe, recovered by NMxSt Rodney ButlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
67.3%
Rose III, Larry rush for 4 yards to the NMSU32 (MUSGRAVE, Jimmy), PENALTY NMSU holding (McMeans, A) 10 yards to the NMSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-2
66.8%
Tyrain Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 22
OWN 16
-3
66.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 25
OWN 13
+14
65.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 14 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
64.7%
Anthony Torres punt for 51 yds, downed at the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15INT TD
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4333% → 18%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
67.1%
Autrey Golden run for 1 yd to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
67.3%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Warren Redix for 4 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-5
67.7%
UTEP Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-5
68.5%
UTEP Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 17Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+41
82.1%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Jacob Nwangwa return for 41 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1518% → 32%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.7%
Kavika Johnson run for 9 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
79.8%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Warren Redix for no gain to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
67.7%
Darrin Laufasa run for 66 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 0:4273% → 87%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+78
73.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 78 yds to the UTEP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3517% → 32%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.1%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Eric Lee) to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
83.3%
Kavika Johnson run for 15 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
82.0%
Kavika Johnson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
81.3%
Kavika Johnson pass incomplete to Autrey GoldenSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
83.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 7 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
82.4%
Kavika Johnson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
82.0%
Kavika Johnson run for no gain to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
82.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
81.8%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Warren Redix for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
82.5%
Darrin Laufasa run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+17
82.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 17 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
84.0%
Ryan Metz run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
68.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Autrey Golden for 26 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2681% → 52%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
80.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
80.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
79.7%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 19 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+64
51.6%
Anthony Torres punt for 45 yds , Jaquan White returns for 64 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:2755% → 53%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
55.3%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Taylor, Tyrain, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Taylor, Tyrain) 12 yards to the NMSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+3
54.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
54.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+10
52.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Kelvin Fisher Jr. return for no gain to the NMxSt 16 UTEP Penalty, illegal block (Ishmael Harrison) to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1954% → 50%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
45.9%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
45.8%
Kavika Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
47.3%
LaQuintus Dowell run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
49.7%
Alan Luna punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 95 yds · 0:4257% → 89%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+82
56.7%
Larry Rose III run for 82 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
88.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
79.1%
Kavika Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
80.3%
Darrin Laufasa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
81.8%
Alan Luna punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:2888% → 98%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
87.5%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+27
87.7%
Larry Rose III run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+6
89.2%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
89.5%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+19
89.0%
Xavier Hall run for 19 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
89.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 19 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:593% → 14%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.0%
METZ, Ryan pass incomplete to BATSON, Tyler (Owens, DeMarcus), PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Owens, DeMarcus) 15 yards to the UTEP40, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
96.8%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jeremiah Laufasa for 6 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
96.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
85.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 48 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5594% → 94%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
94.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
94.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 3 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Anthony Torres punt for 64 yds, downed at the UTEP 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 27TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 1:196% → 61%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
93.6%
METZ, Ryan pass incomplete to BATSON, Tyler, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Hill, Lewis) 15 yards to the UTEP17, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
92.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Cole Freytag for 10 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
92.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jeremiah Laufasa for 10 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
91.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 30 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
86.5%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 10 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.3%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Cole Freytag, broken up by Lewis HillSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
86.3%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Cole FreytagSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
89.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 15 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.8%
Ryan Metz run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:3758% → 63%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
61.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 12 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
61.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+11
58.8%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
65.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joshua BowenSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
64.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan BergstromSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
62.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrain TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
64.2%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
64.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Ty AtencioSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
62.3%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the UTEP 26Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+44
78.8%
Parker Davidson 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
70.9%
LaQuintus Dowell run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
72.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Darrin Laufasa for 7 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+12
76.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Jaquan White for 12 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.9%
Jeremiah Laufasa run for no gain to the NMxSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.8%
Cedrick Lang 6 Yd pass from Ryan Metz Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Cedrick Lang 6 Yd pass from Ryan Metz
-59.1
TD · Q4 0:42
Ryan Metz run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
-50.9
TD · Q4 9:34
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+32.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com