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BUF

Buffalo 33 at Florida Atlantic 15

FAU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDFUMBLEFGTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:05 · Tyler Grassman punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense+7.9Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Pregame prior+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 1:11: Jay Warren run for a loss of 11 yards Jay Warren fumbled, forced by Brandon Berry, recovered by Buff Travis Pitzonka , return for 60 yds, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +10.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:47: Adam Mitcheson 19 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +6.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:30: Jason Driskel pass intercepted for a TD Boise Ross return for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:54: Jordan Johnson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +12.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:50: Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 54 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FAU win probability +10.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 1 at BUF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13BUF 4th & 6 at FAU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:19FAU 4th & 18 at BUF 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 29, down 2
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28FAU 4th & 10 at BUF 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:31BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 49, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:12FAU 4th & 17 at BUF 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:30BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 18, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:13FAU 4th & 1 at BUF 28, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−1.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:05BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:47BUF 4th & 2 at FAU 2, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−12.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:30FAU 4th & 19 at FAU 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−4.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:46BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 48, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:54FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:08BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13BUF 4th & 9 at FAU 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−4.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:40FAU 4th & 10 at BUF 15, down 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:21BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 15, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:44FAU 4th & 4 at BUF 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:44FAU 4th & 6 at BUF 23, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:31FAU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:30BUF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:54BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:50FAU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
54.1%
Greg Howell run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
54.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 8 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+10
54.1%
Greg Howell run for 10 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
54.1%
Greg Howell run for 10 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
54.1%
DRISKEL, Jason rush for 1 yard to the UB33 (ALOZIE, Okezie), PENALTY UB offside (HARRIS, Demone) 5 yards to the UB29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 29
-5
54.1%
Jason Driskel sacked by Solomon Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
54.1%
Henry Bussey run for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
54.1%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-2
54.1%
Greg Howell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
54.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 28 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
54.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
53.9%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
54.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
54.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
54.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 44 yds to the FLAATLANTC 31 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
55.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
55.3%
Bobby Mitchell pass intercepted Ryan Williamson return for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5445% → 44%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
54.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+4
54.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 6
-6
55.8%
Joe Licata sacked by Nick Internicola for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
55.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tony Thomas for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+23
55.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the FLAATLANTC 45 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Berry) to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
56.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 4 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
56.3%
Jason Driskel run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-15
56.0%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 15 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 18
OPP 38
0
55.1%
Ryan Rickel punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
56.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 10 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
55.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
55.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
55.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt Weiser, broken up by Sharrod NeasmanSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
56.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 36 yds , Cre'von LeBlanc returns for no gain to the FlAtl 29 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
56.3%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
56.2%
Jason Driskel run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
56.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 14 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
57.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
56.4%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
55.8%
Ryan Rickel punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0044% → 43%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
56.1%
Jacob Martinez run for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+9
56.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
56.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
55.8%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+10
56.9%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Jalen Young return for 10 yds to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:2059% → 63%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
58.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 11 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
58.5%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry BusseySimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
58.5%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+13
57.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 13 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 15 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
62.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
61.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
61.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
62.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:3864% → 64%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
64.0%
Henry Bussey run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
64.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 29 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
66.5%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
66.4%
Marcus Clark run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-1
66.2%
Marcus Clark run for 9 yds to the Buff 23 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (Kalib Woods) to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-13
66.2%
Jason Driskel sacked by Travis Pitzonka and Nick Gilbo for a loss of 13 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
64.2%
Ryan Rickel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
66.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+3
66.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
66.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+8
67.2%
Tyler Grassman punt for 39 yds , Jenson Stoshak returns for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0770% → 70%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
69.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
69.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+6
69.1%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
69.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+8
69.9%
Jason Driskel run for 8 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
69.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate Terry, broken up by Brandon BerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3029% → 27%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
70.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
69.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-5
69.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-3
70.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
72.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
73.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:4271% → 62%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
71.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 13 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.5%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
72.4%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to TERRY, Nate, PENALTY UB roughing passer (ANYANWU, Randy) 15 yards to the UB38, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
72.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey for 9 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
72.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+60
62.3%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 11 yards Jay Warren fumbled, forced by Brandon Berry, recovered by Buff Travis Pitzonka , return for 60 yds, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:3660% → 64%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
59.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 9 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
61.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+8
60.2%
Greg Howell run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
63.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 3
50
0
63.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
50
+9
62.4%
Jason Driskel run for 9 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+40
63.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 40 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
58.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
57.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
58.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-2
57.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+11
59.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 53 yds , Tavaris Harrison returns for 11 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0060% → 63%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
60.2%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
60.8%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
59.4%
Tyler Cameron run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
60.6%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+34
62.6%
Greg Howell run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 10 Greg Howell fumbled, forced by Max Perisse, recovered by Buff Ryan Williamson , return for 34 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0446% → 51%
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
54.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
54.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
55.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
49.1%
Adam Mitcheson 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
37.1%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted for a TD Boise Ross return for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.8%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
35.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kamrin Solomon, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
33.4%
Jason Driskel sacked by Nick Gilbo for a loss of 11 yards to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
32.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 45 yds, downed at the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
29.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
29.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
30.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
31.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlAtl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
27.1%
Greg Howell run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4673% → 88%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+43
27.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 43 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
24.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
24.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
11.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
15.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 19 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
17.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
16.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
15.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+7
15.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 7 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
16.2%
Ryan Rickel punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
11.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-10
10.9%
TAYLOR, Anthone rush for 7 yards to the UB35 (YOUNG, Jalen), PENALTY UB holding (MANOSALVAS, Bra) 10 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 16
OWN 18
0
11.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt Weiser, broken up by Sharrod NeasmanSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+10
11.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 6
OWN 28
-5
11.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Brandon Williams) to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
11.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jenson Stoshak at the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:1214% → 25%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
13.7%
Marcus Clark run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+54
24.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 54 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 8:3779% → 89%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
21.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
19.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
19.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
19.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
19.1%
Marcus McGill run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
19.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
19.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
18.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
18.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-5
18.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
18.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
19.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
10.7%
Adam Mitcheson 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:3311% → 3%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
10.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 8 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
2.8%
Jason Driskel sacked by Okezie Alozie for a loss of 10 yards Jason Driskel fumbled, recovered by Buff Brandon Crawford , return for 0 yards , return for 11 yds, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 30DOWNS
14 plays · 69 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
2.7%
Henry Bussey run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Marcus Clark, broken up by Okezie AlozieSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+13
2.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 13 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
3.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry BusseySimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
3.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+17
2.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 17 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
3.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 14 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
3.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
3.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jeremy GaskinsSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
3.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+9
3.1%
Jason Driskel run for 9 yds to the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1798% → 99%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
1.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
1.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+6
1.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+12
1.4%
Tyler Grassman punt for 36 yds , Tavaris Harrison returns for 12 yds to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 32DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
1.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
1.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jeremy GaskinsSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+6
1.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jeremy Gaskins for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+6
1.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 6 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
1.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
1.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
1.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 6
OPP 23
0
1.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Okezie AlozieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 33END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 12
OWN 21
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-1
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:30
Jason Driskel pass intercepted for a TD Boise Ross return for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 2:54
Jordan Johnson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q4 14:50
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 54 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com