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FIU

Florida International 15 at UCF 14

UCF
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:04 · Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds, downed at the FlaIn 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+32.0Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:41: Alex Gardner run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FIU win probability +11.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 12:52: Ya'Keem Griner 3 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — FIU win probability +17.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:11: Justin Holman pass complete to Chris Johnson for 13 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down — UCF win probability +11.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:37: Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 00:37 — FIU win probability +15.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:25: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 28 — FIU win probability +18.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10FIU 4th & 7 at UCF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 29, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:58FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:23UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 15, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43UCF 4th & 5 at FIU 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50FIU 4th & 2 at UCF 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:37UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 30, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:47UCF 4th & 1 at FIU 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−3.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−13.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:44UCF 4th & 6 at FIU 41, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−2.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:01FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:43UCF 4th & 26 at UCF 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−6.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:22FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 35, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.5 ptsPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−7.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:25UCF 4th & 17 at FIU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−28.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−32.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:16UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:07UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:41FIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:52FIU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    45.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
86.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for no gain to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
86.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Wilkenson MyrtilSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
86.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 7:2314% → 17%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
86.0%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+8
86.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 8 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
86.0%
Anthon Samuel run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
85.9%
Anthon Samuel run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
85.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthon Samuel for 4 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
85.9%
Anthon Samuel run for 10 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
85.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
50
-5
85.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
85.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 12 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
85.9%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
85.9%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+27
85.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 27 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
85.8%
Anthon Samuel run for 2 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
85.8%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+1
85.9%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
83.0%
Austin Taylor 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
82.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 9 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
83.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
83.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
83.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
82.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds, downed at the FlaIn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
82.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 4 yds to the FlaIn 11Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+5
82.1%
Alex Gardner run for 17 yds to the FlaIn 26 Alex Gardner fumbled, forced by Chequan Burkett, recovered by UCF Drico Johnson , return for 5 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:3683% → 83%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
82.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+7
82.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
82.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+6
82.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds to the FlaIn 9Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
83.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0717% → 17%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Ya'Keem Griner for no gain to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.6%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
82.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Chris Ayers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Akins at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:2882% → 87%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
82.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
82.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Chris Johnson for 7 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
82.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 20 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
83.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-1
83.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+33
86.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 33 yds for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, OFF ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Anthon Samuel run for no gain to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
85.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthon Samuel for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.4%
Chris Ayers punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
86.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
86.5%
Deonte Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
86.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
86.0%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-2
86.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+9
86.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 9 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+9
86.6%
Stone Wilson punt for 52 yds , Jordan Akins returns for 9 yds to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
87.0%
Justin Holman run for 15 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
87.1%
Justin Holman sacked by Michael Wakefield for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Justin Holman fumbled, , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 17
50
+12
86.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Chris Johnson for 12 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
86.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
86.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Richard Leonard at the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12MISSED FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 2:2713% → 13%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
86.8%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
86.9%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+18
87.4%
Alex Gardner run for 18 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
86.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 4 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
86.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 12 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
86.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for no gain to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
86.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 8 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
86.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+3
87.2%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
86.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 12 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
85.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 1 yd to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-1
85.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+50
86.9%
Austin Taylor 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 6:1113% → 27%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
86.8%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+26
86.9%
Anthony Jones run for 26 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
85.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
85.6%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
85.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+10
86.5%
Alex McGough run for 10 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
85.5%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+15
85.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Anthony Jones for 15 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
84.7%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
84.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Ya'Keem Griner for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+17
85.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 17 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.7%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
84.7%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 7Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.3%
Alex Gardner run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
79.5%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+10
79.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 10 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
79.6%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+4
78.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 53 yds , Richard Leonard returns for 4 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
77.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 12 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Anthony JonesSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
76.8%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
78.1%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 10
OWN 33
-5
78.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Stone Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Akins at the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:5179% → 79%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
79.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 15 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
80.6%
William Stanback run for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
81.0%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
80.3%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
81.3%
Nick Patti run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
81.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Wilkenson MyrtilSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+17
80.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 17 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
82.0%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Chris (LEONARD, R.), PENALTY FIU OFF 5 yards to the FIU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
82.1%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-10
80.5%
HOLMAN, Justin pass complete to SMITH, Tre'Quan for 13 yards to the FIU10, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UCF holding 10 yards to the FIU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+13
79.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 13 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
79.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the FlaIn 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF Justin HolmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3126% → 50%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.3%
Alex Gardner run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+47
73.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Ya'Keem Griner for 47 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
67.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 23 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
67.1%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the UCF 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
67.1%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.8%
Ya'Keem Griner 3 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
57.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
57.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 13 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
61.6%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+12
58.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
63.0%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
62.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 3 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
61.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
58.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
50.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 11 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
49.3%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
49.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 8 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-5
46.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
50.2%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Alex Gardner FLORIDA INTL Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
53.0%
Chris Ayers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Akins at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
53.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 14 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
54.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+21
53.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 21 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
60.0%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-3
55.8%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
54.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 18
OWN 45
-7
52.2%
Justin Holman sacked by Denzell Perine for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 37 Justin Holman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 26
OWN 37
+10
50.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds , Richard Leonard returns for 10 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2760% → 63%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
39.9%
Alex McGough run for no gain to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
41.0%
Alex Gardner run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
38.0%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+6
36.8%
Stone Wilson punt for 45 yds , Jordan Akins returns for 6 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 2:4648% → 36%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
48.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Chris Johnson for 13 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
50.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
54.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
52.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 5 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
55.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 6 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
55.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+19
54.1%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.5%
William Stanback run for no gain to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-4
57.3%
William Stanback run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+2
41.7%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 25
-5
38.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+47
36.2%
Matthew Wright 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Imarjaye Albury TEAM return for no gain to the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1782% → 90%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
17.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
9.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the FlaIn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:25
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 28
-18.4
TD · Q4 12:52
Ya'Keem Griner 3 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-17.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:37
Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 00:37
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com