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FAU

Florida Atlantic 44 at Tulsa 47

TLSA
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:49 · Redford Jones 26 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 89Pregame prior+27.6Home team on offense+6.2Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:51: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +16.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:23: Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +21.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 1:48: Greg Joseph 47 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +36.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:03: Redford Jones 39 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +43.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Zack Langer run for 3 yds for a TD — TLSA win probability +48.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:31FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:07TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:38FAU 4th & 19 at TLSA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:39FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:49FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:47TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:49TLSA 4th & 9 at FAU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:56FAU 4th & 13 at TLSA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:53FAU 4th & 3 at TLSA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:27TLSA 4th & 1 at FAU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−3.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−11.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:51FAU 4th & 2 at TLSA 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−14.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:51TLSA 4th & 6 at FAU 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:10FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:28FAU 4th & 10 at TLSA 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−17.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:41TLSA 4th & 3 at FAU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−4.3
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−20.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:48FAU 4th & 13 at TLSA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−7.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−11.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:19TLSA 4th & 1 at FAU 24, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.2 ptsWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%−5.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−27.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:34FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:45TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:39TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:49TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:18FAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:02FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:14FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:27TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:51FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:23TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
91.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 1 yd to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
91.2%
Dane Evans sacked by Trevon Coley for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
91.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds , Cre'von LeBlanc returns for 6 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
90.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+8
90.8%
Jay Warren run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for no gain to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Dalton Schomp punt for 58 yds, downed at the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
90.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
90.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+3
90.4%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+5
90.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 52 yds , Jenson Stoshak returns for 5 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.9%
Greg Howell run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
89.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
89.8%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+16
89.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Tulsa 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlAtlSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+10
89.9%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete, PENALTY TLS holding (ALEXANDER, D.) 10 yards to the TLS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-4
89.8%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 19
OPP 39
0
89.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
90.0%
Ryan Rickel punt for 34 yds, downed at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
89.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
89.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 4
OWN 11
-6
89.0%
EVANS, D. pass complete to FLOYD, C. for 18 yards to the TLS29, PENALTY TLS holding 6 yards to the TLS5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
88.9%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Cre'von LeBlanc return for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:3512% → 15%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
88.1%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+27
88.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 27 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
88.0%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
85.5%
Greg Howell run for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4986% → 88%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
86.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
86.0%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to LUCAS, K., PENALTY FAU offside defense 5 yards to the TLS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
86.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
86.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+18
86.6%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
86.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+39
88.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 39 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.2%
Henry Bussey run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
87.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
87.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, IP (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
87.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
87.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 62 yds , Conner Floyd returns for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:1187% → 89%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
87.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+19
87.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 19 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+50
87.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 50 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
87.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
87.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
89.3%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:3211% → 11%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
88.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 13 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.4%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
88.1%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass complete to STOSHAK, Jenson for 10 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FAU holding 10 yards to the FAU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+4
88.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+9
88.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 9 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Tyler Cameron pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 43 yds for a TD FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
90.8%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
90.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 1 yd to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
90.9%
Jaquez Johnson run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-3
90.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
90.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
90.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
91.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
91.6%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:379% → 15%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
90.6%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
90.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 6 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
90.4%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
90.5%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete to WOODS, Kalib, PENALTY FAU holding 10 yards to the FAU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+4
90.7%
Jay Warren run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+45
90.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 45 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
89.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
85.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 17 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:2488% → 88%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
87.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
87.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
88.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
88.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 44 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
87.5%
Redford Jones 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:5313% → 17%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
86.9%
Marcus Clark run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
86.6%
Greg Howell run for 30 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
85.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
84.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
85.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
84.8%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass complete to TERRY, Nate for 19 yards to the TLS6, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FAU holding 10 yards to the TLS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
85.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
85.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+7
86.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 7 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
82.8%
Greg Joseph 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:1083% → 85%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
82.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+18
83.3%
Zack Langer run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
83.7%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to HOBBS, J., PENALTY FAU pass interference 15 yards to the TLS44, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
84.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 14 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-12
85.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Trevon Coley for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulsa 46 Dane Evans fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Trevon Coley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate Terry, broken up by Michael MudohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:5318% → 30%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
82.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+12
80.1%
Jaquez Johnson run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
70.3%
Jay Warren run for 38 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FlAtl Freedom WhitfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:3931% → 45%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
69.5%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Trent Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+6
70.9%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+5
70.6%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+15
72.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 15 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
69.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Nate Terry for 7 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
54.7%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4756% → 71%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Azeez Al-ShaairSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+49
54.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zack Langer for 34 yds to the TULSA 41 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
60.8%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+6
60.8%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
60.8%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
60.8%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
59.1%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
70.5%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2736% → 53%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
64.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
63.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 25 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
62.0%
Jaquez Johnson run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.0%
Marcus Clark run for no gain to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
62.0%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
63.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.9%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
46.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Mandel Dixon for 7 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
46.2%
Zack Langer run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
48.1%
Keevan Lucas run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
49.3%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chandler Miller) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 15
50
0
47.5%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 15
50
+9
46.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
46.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
41.6%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
40.9%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
41.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib Woods FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
43.5%
Dalton Schomp punt for 73 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26INT
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:0038% → 42%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
38.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 21 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.4%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Herb Miller return for no gain to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1061% → 61%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
39.2%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+2
39.6%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
38.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
39.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the FlAtl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:2439% → 63%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
39.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
38.8%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+44
37.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 44 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.3%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.6%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:4847% → 59%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
53.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
50.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
50.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+12
50.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
50.2%
Greg Howell run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
48.2%
JOHNSON, Jaquez pass incomplete to TERRY, Nate, PENALTY FAU holding 10 yards to the TLS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+5
49.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
50.0%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 15
OPP 28
-5
52.8%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Antonyo Woods) to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+10
53.1%
Jay Warren run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
41.2%
Greg Joseph 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:4748% → 64%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
48.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+16
51.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
52.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 21 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
56.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
56.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Ocie RoseSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+6
53.8%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
56.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
56.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+1
53.8%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
63.7%
Redford Jones 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 31FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 3:5344% → 84%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.6%
Jay Warren run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
52.4%
Jay Warren run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
54.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
56.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 12 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
50.5%
Jay Warren run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+10
49.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 10 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
49.8%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
47.5%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
47.5%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-10
47.5%
HOWELL, Greg rush for 11 yards to the TLS9, out-of-bounds (MUDOH, M.), PENALTY FAU holding 10 yards to the TLS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
49.3%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
53.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+47
16.5%
Greg Joseph 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 32FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 1:4533% → 63%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.9%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
29.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
29.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
31.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 19 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
37.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
41.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Trevon Coley for a loss of 10 yards to the FlAtl 45 Dane Evans fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Chris Wallace , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 22
OPP 45
+21
26.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 21 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
36.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
23.2%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
29.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
25.0%
TEAM pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+39
63.0%
Redford Jones 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
47.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 34FG
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
40.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
40.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 4 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
40.5%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
42.6%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.6%
Greg Howell run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
40.5%
JOHNSON, Jaquez rush for no gain to the TLS1 (GOODEN, C.J.), PENALTY FAU illegal formation 5 yards to the TLS6, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
40.5%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 11Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
43.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson Stoshak, broken up by Trent MartinSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+27
28.5%
Greg Joseph 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 35TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
41.3%
Keevan Lucas run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
41.3%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
41.3%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+5
37.8%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.4%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Zack Langer run for 3 yds for a TD
+48.6
FG · Q4 0:03
Redford Jones 39 yd FG GOOD
+43.7
FG · Q4 1:48
Greg Joseph 47 yd FG GOOD
-36.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com