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NAVY

Navy 24 at Notre Dame 41

ND
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-2.8ND 92.1%Austin Grebe 40 Yd Field GoalAWAY 24 - HOME 38 · Q3 0:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:18 · Austin Grebe 40 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+11.9Home team on offense+16.4Score differential+6.8Garbage-time factor+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:37: C.J. Prosise 7 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +5.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Quentin Ezell 22 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick) — NAVY win probability +12.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Justin Yoon 52 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +4.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:16: C.J. Prosise 22 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +5.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:04: C.J. Prosise 11 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:02ND 4th & 10 at ND 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48ND 4th & 2 at NAVY 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48NAVY 4th & 12 at ND 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:59ND 4th & 22 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:11NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:50NAVY 4th & 3 at ND 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:05NAVY 4th & 14 at ND 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:21NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:03NAVY 4th & 2 at ND 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:18NAVY 4th & 2 at ND 23, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:48ND 4th & 4 at NAVY 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−3.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:34NAVY 4th & 1 at ND 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:48NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:30ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:37ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:10ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:56NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:24NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:16ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:04ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4989% → 88%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
88.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Tyler LuatuaSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
88.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for no gain to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
88.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 46 yds, downed at the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:0412% → 12%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+51
88.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 51 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
88.1%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 6 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
87.6%
Toneo Gulley 13 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1288% → 87%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 10 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
87.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 25 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey Robinson, broken up by Ted ColburnSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
87.3%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Micah Thomas and D.J. Palmore for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+18
86.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 18 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
87.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Nic Weishar for 5 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+8
86.8%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
86.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
86.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
85.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+5
85.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
DeShone Kizer 1 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
16 plays · 35 yds · 6:2914% → 16%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Chris Swain run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
85.4%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
85.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
50
+3
84.5%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
84.3%
Chris Swain run for 9 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
84.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-11
83.6%
Reynolds, Keenan rush for 6 yards to the NOTREDAME25, PENALTY NAVY holding (Gaston, Joey) 11 yards to the NOTREDAME42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+5
83.9%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-3
83.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
84.0%
Alex Barta punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:3585% → 83%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
84.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 13 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
84.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+19
84.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 19 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
85.0%
Torii Hunter Jr. pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+17
84.9%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Kevin McCoy) to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
85.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Amir CarlisleSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+12
85.2%
Josh Adams run for 12 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
85.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Ronnie Stanley) to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
85.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Alex Bars) to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
-4
84.8%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 19
OPP 38
0
84.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 19
OPP 38
-3
83.8%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Josiah Powell for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 22
OPP 41
0
83.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds, downed at the Navy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0617% → 18%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
82.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 11
-1
82.3%
DeBrandon Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-3
82.4%
Chris Swain run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 7 Chris Swain fumbled, recovered by NDame Jaylon SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.5%
C.J. Prosise 7 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1213% → 13%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
86.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
86.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+3
86.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
86.6%
Alex Barta punt for 49 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 1:5486% → 91%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
86.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 8 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+29
86.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 29 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
87.6%
Kizer, DeShone pass incomplete to Brown, Chris, PENALTY NAVY roughing passer (Sarra, Bernard) 15 yards to the NAVY32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
87.8%
Prosise, C.J. rush for 32 yards to the NAVY0, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Jones, Alize) 10 yards to the NAVY42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+2
87.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+10
87.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 10 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+30
90.7%
Will Fuller 30 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0610% → 15%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.9%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
89.7%
Tago Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
89.8%
Tago Smith run for 22 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
89.1%
Quentin Ezell run for 2 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+45
85.0%
Quentin Ezell 45 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5986% → 86%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
86.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
86.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Nick Martin) to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+5
86.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
86.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+1
85.8%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Brendon Clements return for 1 yd to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:1316% → 29%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
84.4%
Tago Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+6
85.2%
Tago Smith pass complete to Thomas Wilson for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+4
83.7%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+8
84.5%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
82.2%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
70.6%
Quentin Ezell 22 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FG
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:1278% → 83%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
78.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 28 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+52
83.4%
Justin Yoon 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:2683% → 88%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
82.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
88.1%
C.J. Prosise 22 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:5115% → 13%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
84.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
84.8%
Demond Brown run for 9 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
84.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
84.6%
Chris Swain run for no gain to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-5
85.7%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Romeo Okwara for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
87.5%
Austin Grebe 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:5387% → 95%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
87.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
50
+9
88.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 9 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+5
88.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
88.4%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
88.3%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+16
87.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 16 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
88.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 5 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
88.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 4 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+1
87.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.3%
C.J. Prosise 11 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 6:236% → 8%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
94.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+8
94.2%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
94.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
94.8%
Quentin Ezell run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+11
95.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 11 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
94.8%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
94.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 11 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
94.1%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
94.1%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
94.9%
Quentin Ezell run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
92.1%
Austin Grebe 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:2295% → 97%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
94.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 19 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
95.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 7 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
95.3%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.4%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
95.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
95.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 10 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
95.7%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+13
95.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 13 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
95.9%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
96.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
96.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris Brown, broken up by Josh BrownSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
97.3%
Justin Yoon 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:153% → 3%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
96.8%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+9
96.8%
Tago Smith run for 9 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
96.9%
Chris Swain run for 12 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
96.8%
Tago Smith run for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-2
96.7%
Tago Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
97.0%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+6
97.2%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.0%
Tago Smith pass intercepted Elijah Shumate return for no gain to the NDame 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:3498% → 99%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
98.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd to the NDame 7Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 9
OWN 7
-1
98.1%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+13
98.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 13 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
98.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
98.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.6%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
98.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
98.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Quentin Ezell 22 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)
-12.1
TD · Q3 7:04
C.J. Prosise 11 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+7.4
TD · Q3 14:16
C.J. Prosise 22 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com