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WIS

Wisconsin 31 at Minnesota 21

MINN
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:07 · Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Tanner McEvoy return for no gain to the Minn 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−37.2Score differential−10.9Garbage-time factor−15.1Pregame prior−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:57: Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:34: Rodney Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +8.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:56: Taiwan Deal run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +8.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:11: Dare Ogunbowale run for 18 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +10.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:33: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +10.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:34WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:27WIS 4th & 13 at MINN 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:27MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:53WIS 4th & 15 at MINN 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:53MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:24MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 25, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:19WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:56WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:46WIS 4th & 6 at MINN 33, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.4
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:32MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 46, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:02WIS 4th & 15 at WIS 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:07MINN 4th & 19 at MINN 13, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:27MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:23WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:57WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:34MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:56WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:11WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:33MINN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
41.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
41.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon Lingen, broken up by Michael CaputoSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+7
41.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 7 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+3
41.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
42.1%
Joel Stave pass intercepted for a TD Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:0458% → 58%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
42.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
42.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 36Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+11
42.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 11 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
42.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+18
41.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Theiren Cockran) to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
41.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 12 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
41.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+14
41.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 14 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.9%
Derek Watt run for 1 yd to the Minn 1Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.1%
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
43.3%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
43.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
42.7%
Peter Mortell punt for 34 yds , Alex Erickson returns for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 7:1557% → 62%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
43.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 11 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
42.8%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
42.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 11 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
42.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+3
42.3%
Taiwan Deal run for 3 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
42.4%
Taiwan Deal run for no gain to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
42.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+13
42.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 13 yds to the Minn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
42.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
42.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+7
42.4%
Derek Watt run for 7 yds to the Minn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
42.1%
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd to the Minn 3Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
42.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.8%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:2340% → 50%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
39.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 8 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+2
40.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
40.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Miles Thomas for 24 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
41.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+17
41.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 17 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
41.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+5
41.8%
Leidner, Mitch pass complete to Thomas, Miles for 1 yard to the WIS10, fumble forced by Caputo, Michael, fumble by Thomas, Miles recovered by MINN Thomas, Miles at WIS14, PENALTY WIS offside (Biegel, Vince) 5 yards to the WIS6, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.8%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 9 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
45.2%
Derek Watt run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
45.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
44.1%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
44.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 1 yd to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
45.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 42 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for no gain to the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
47.9%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+8
48.2%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
48.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 34 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Joe Schobert, recovered by Wisc Darius HillarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:3658% → 67%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
42.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+11
42.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 11 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
42.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
33.5%
Taiwan Deal run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.0%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
36.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
35.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 15 yds KJ Maye fumbled, forced by Michael Caputo, recovered by Wisc Darius HillarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:4466% → 78%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
33.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 15 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
33.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
33.3%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
33.7%
Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
33.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
22.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 18 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.2%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
24.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
23.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
23.8%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
24.3%
Drew Meyer punt for 28 yds, downed at the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
25.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
25.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon Lingen, broken up by Michael CaputoSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+29
24.6%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Joe Schobert return for 14 yds to the MINNESOTA 44 WISCONSIN Penalty, personal foul (Jack Cichy) to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:2080% → 84%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
20.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
20.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 10 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
20.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
19.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
20.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 4 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
19.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
20.1%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
20.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
15.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
17.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
17.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Shannon Brooks, broken up by Conor SheehySimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
16.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
16.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:5086% → 92%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
14.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
14.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, false start (Beau Benzschawel) to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+5
14.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+26
14.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 26 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
13.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
13.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+8
13.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
13.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
13.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Minn 24Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+2
13.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 5
OPP 22
-10
8.6%
Gaglianone, R. field goal attempt from 40 GOOD, clock 01:58, PENALTY WIS holding (Neuville, Z.) 10 yards to the MINN32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
8.2%
Rafael Gaglianone 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
13.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
13.4%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+10
13.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nick Hart for 10 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
14.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
13.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
6.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+9
6.9%
Taiwan Deal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
7.0%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
7.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 53 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
7.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson WISCONSIN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
8.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
8.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+9
8.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 44 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
4.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
4.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
4.7%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
5.1%
Drew Meyer punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22INT
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
5.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 38 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
6.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Tanner McEvoySimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
6.6%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Tanner McEvoy return for 18 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
4.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
4.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-2
4.0%
Taiwan Deal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
4.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:095% → 17%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
5.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
4.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 8 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+30
5.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nick Hart for 30 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
6.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 7 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
17.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4790% → 91%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
9.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
9.5%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
8.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
9.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
8.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
8.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 8 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
9.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 4 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
10.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nick Hart for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+7
10.8%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
10.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Darius HillarySimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
10.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 8 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-10
12.0%
Smith, Rodney rush for 1 yard to the WIS43 (Watt, TJ), PENALTY MINN holding (Moore, Tyler) 10 yards to the MINN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
8.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
8.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:3795% → 94%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
5.5%
Ogunbowale, D. rush for 4 yards to the MINN42 (Campbell, D.), PENALTY WIS holding (Deiter, Michael) 10 yards to the WIS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-1
5.8%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 21
OWN 43
+2
5.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+4
5.4%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
5.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 43 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for no gain to the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
2.9%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Hart, Nick, PENALTY WIS pass interference (Orr, Chris) 14 yards to the MINN22, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
3.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete, broken up by T.J. WattSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
2.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-9
2.8%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 13Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
2.7%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Tanner McEvoy return for no gain to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
3.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:11
Dare Ogunbowale run for 18 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 5:33
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 4:56
Taiwan Deal run for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com