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PSU

Penn State 16 at Michigan State 55

MSU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1MSU 71.2%Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 6 · Q2 14:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:14 · Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+18.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:12: Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 2:36: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds to MchSt 23. Kyle Carter fumbled, recovered by MchSt Demetrious Cox, return 77 yds for TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:35: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:40: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:31: Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 6:01PSU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:20MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:25PSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:14PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:09PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:00PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:35PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:51PSU 4th & 5 at MSU 5, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51PSU 4th & 5 at MSU 5, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:17PSU 4th & 8 at MSU 31, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:01PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:35MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:12MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:35PSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:40MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:31MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:18MSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:56MSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:48MSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:3826% → 26%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
74.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
73.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 21 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted, touchback. Arjen Colquhoun return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2574% → 75%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
73.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
73.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 10 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
73.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
73.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
73.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 4 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
73.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 33
-5
73.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+9
73.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
75.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2626% → 26%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
74.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 15 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
74.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
73.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
73.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
73.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
74.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 3
50
0
73.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 3
50
0
73.9%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3575% → 74%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
74.5%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+4
74.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+5
74.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 5 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
74.7%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
74.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
74.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+1
74.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds , Gregg Garrity returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:5926% → 29%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
73.9%
Brandon Polk run for 25 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
73.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
72.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
72.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+8
73.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
72.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+14
71.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 14 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
71.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
71.2%
Tyler Davis 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1572% → 71%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
71.8%
Delton Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+13
72.3%
Aaron Burbridge run for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
72.7%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 43 Connor Cook fumbled, recovered by MchSt Connor CookSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
71.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+6
71.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
70.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3128% → 27%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
71.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
71.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-10
72.4%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Malik McDowell for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 17
OWN 5
+9
73.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 53 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 9 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:4873% → 79%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
72.7%
Aaron Burbridge run for 2 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+24
72.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 24 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
73.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+8
73.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
73.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:2422% → 15%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
77.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
77.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-14
76.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 14 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 18
OWN 29
-5
79.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 23
OWN 24
+22
79.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 22 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
78.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
77.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 19 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Brent WilkersonSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+77
85.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds to MchSt 23. Kyle Carter fumbled, recovered by MchSt Demetrious Cox, return 77 yds for TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 67 yds · 1:4514% → 21%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
86.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-15
86.2%
Hackenberg, Christian pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the PENNST36 (McDowell, Malik), PENALTY PENNST face mask 15 yards to the PENNST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+8
87.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 8 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+14
87.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 14 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
86.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brent Wilkerson for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+21
85.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 21 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
85.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
87.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
83.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Brian Gaia) to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
78.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:2681% → 83%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
81.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
81.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Delton Williams for 8 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
81.4%
Delton Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
82.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
83.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the PnSt 45 Tyler O'Connor fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jack AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1080% → 90%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
80.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
79.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
81.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
82.5%
Aaron Burbridge run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
81.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+21
82.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 21 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
90.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0511% → 10%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.5%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Andrew Nelson) to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
89.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
90.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
90.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 42 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 6:5991% → 98%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
91.4%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
92.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
92.3%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
93.0%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+18
93.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 18 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
93.3%
Delton Williams run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
93.5%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.7%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
94.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+16
93.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 16 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.1%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 3:303% → 5%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-1
97.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+77
97.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 77 yds Saeed Blacknall fumbled, forced by Montae Nicholson, recovered by PnSt Saeed Blacknall for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
96.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.7%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Lewis, Geno, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Bullough, Riley) 4 yards to the MICHIGANST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
97.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
97.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
97.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shilique Calhoun) to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds for a TDSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.6%
Chris Godwin 5 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:1798% → 100%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
98.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 16 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
98.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
98.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+8
98.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 8 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+6
98.6%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT TD
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:222% → 0%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
98.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 6 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Brandon BellSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted for a TD Malik McDowell return for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Jack Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 13 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
99.9%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 13
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+5
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+20
99.9%
Madre London run for 20 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
100.0%
Phillip-Michael Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
50
+10
100.0%
Phillip-Michael Williams run for 10 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to DeAnthony ArnettSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
100.0%
Phillip-Michael Williams run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+1
100.0%
Phillip-Michael Williams run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35 Phillip-Michael Williams fumbled, forced by Manny Bowen, recovered by PnSt Tarow BarneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
100.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
100.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+9
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 2:36
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 10 yds to MchSt 23. Kyle Carter fumbled, recovered by MchSt Demetrious Cox, return 77 yds for TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q3 11:40
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 0:35
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com