Try the model
OSU

Ohio State 42 at Michigan 13

MICH
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:59 · Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 4 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense−56.6Score differential−44.2Pregame prior−0.5Garbage-time factor−24.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:01: Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:00: Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 5 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +11.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MICH +2 timeouts on the defense).
  3. TD · Q3 12:21: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:45: J.T. Barrett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:53: Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:37MICH 4th & 5 at OSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:26MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:25MICH 4th & 6 at OSU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−6.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:50MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:21OSU 4th & 1 at MICH 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−2.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−10.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:44MICH 4th & 8 at OSU 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:16MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 45, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:35MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 28, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:50OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 43, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:37OSU 4th & 3 at MICH 3, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:59MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 13, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:06MICH 4th & 17 at MICH 22, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:05OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:01OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:00MICH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:21OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:45OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:53OSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:43OSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:1136% → 38%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
36.2%
Sione Houma run for 3 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+12
36.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 12 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
36.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
36.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
37.1%
Sione Houma run for 4 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
37.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 10 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
37.9%
Jabrill Peppers run for 5 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
38.2%
Jabrill Peppers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
38.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
37.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2662% → 61%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
37.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
37.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 12 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
37.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-2
37.8%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Jourdan Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
38.3%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
38.8%
Cameron Johnston punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2239% → 40%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
38.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Drake Johnson for 13 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
39.0%
Jabrill Peppers run for 7 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
39.8%
Jabrill Peppers run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
39.9%
Sione Houma run for 5 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
40.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
40.4%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
40.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
39.7%
Blake O'Neill punt for 46 yds, downed at the OhSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 3:1360% → 66%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
39.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 6Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
40.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for no gain to the OhSt 6Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+3
40.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+15
41.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Tyree Kinnel) to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
40.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+66
40.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 66 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
38.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:2537% → 42%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
36.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
36.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+13
36.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 13 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
37.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-1
37.1%
Jabrill Peppers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+20
36.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 20 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
38.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
38.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Graham Glasgow) to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+11
37.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 11 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+3
38.7%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
39.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 22 yds to the OhSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
40.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 3 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
38.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+25
42.0%
Kenny Allen 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1460% → 71%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
39.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Taco Charlton) to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
39.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Pat Elflein) to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
39.8%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+25
39.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 25 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
37.1%
Braxton Miller run for 6 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
37.0%
Braxton Miller run for 2 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+16
37.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 16 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
36.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+8
36.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 3:3530% → 44%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
29.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
29.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 5 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+15
29.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 15 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
29.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
30.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 13 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
30.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
30.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+14
29.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Damon Webb) to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
30.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 24 yds to the OhSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
32.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
32.3%
Jabrill Peppers run for 8 yds to the OhSt 5Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
43.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 5 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5262% → 63%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
37.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
37.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.0%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:1962% → 75%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
37.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 7 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+21
37.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 21 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
35.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
35.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 15 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
35.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
34.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
35.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
24.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:2126% → 23%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
26.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Khalid HillSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
25.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+7
25.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 7 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
25.1%
Jabrill Peppers run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
25.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 2 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
24.6%
Jake Rudock run for no gain to the Mich 41 Jake Rudock fumbled, forced by Joey Bosa, recovered by Mich Mason ColeSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
23.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
17 plays · 84 yds · 6:5677% → 94%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
23.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Braxton Miller for 5 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
23.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+11
23.4%
Curtis Samuel run for 11 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
22.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
21.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
20.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 8 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-10
20.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taylor Decker) to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+9
21.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+12
20.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 12 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
19.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
19.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
19.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
18.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
18.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
19.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+4
20.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
5.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:2610% → 15%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
9.5%
Jake Rudock sacked by Tyquan Lewis and Joshua Perry for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+21
8.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
50
+39
9.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 39 yds to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
10.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
10.5%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
9.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
15.1%
Kenny Allen 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3691% → 98%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
8.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
8.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
8.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 38 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
7.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
2.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:193% → 2%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
2.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 20 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
2.7%
Jake Rudock sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+6
2.5%
Jabrill Peppers run for 6 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
2.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+2
2.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 2 yds to the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2298% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
1.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
1.7%
Braxton Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+4
1.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+1
1.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+15
1.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jourdan Lewis) to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
0.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 17 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Braden) to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
0.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+13
0.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 13 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.2%
Blake O'Neill punt for 32 yds, downed at the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
0.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Pat Elflein) to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+6
0.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+2
0.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+14
0.2%
TEAM punt blocked by Jehu Chesson blocked by Jehu ChessonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (5 Yards) to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 5
OWN 48
0
0.2%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+28
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Joey Bosa return for 28 yds to the Mich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
0.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
0.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
0.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 17 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+8
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+4
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 4 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-14
0.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Mason Cole) to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 24
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 24
OWN 15
+2
0.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 22
OWN 17
+5
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 5 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
0.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:45
J.T. Barrett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-15
TD · Q2 1:00
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 5 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q3 12:21
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 25 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com