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NU

Northwestern 24 at Illinois 14

ILL
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Soldier Field
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.3ILL 20.5%Jack Mitchell 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 14 · Q4 11:27
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:27 · Jack Mitchell 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−20.8Score differential−8.9Garbage-time factor−8.9Pregame prior−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:21: Warren Long run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +4.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:41: Justin Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +7.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:45: Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Mason Monheim return for 58 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +13.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:45: Taylor Zalewski kickoff for 49 yds , Dan Vitale return for 16 yds to the Nwest 32 — ILL win probability +6.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:10: Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37 — NU win probability +5.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 11NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30NU 4th & 3 at NU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13ILL 4th & 1 at NU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:30ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:36ILL 4th & 9 at NU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:12NU 4th & 13 at NU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:56ILL 4th & 5 at NU 30, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:51NU 4th & 2 at NU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:15ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:16NU 4th & 12 at ILL 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:02ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:44NU 4th & 2 at NU 28, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:30ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:18NU 4th & 2 at NU 20, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:47ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:10ILL 4th & 11 at NU 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:27NU 4th & 16 at ILL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−3.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−9.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:04NU 4th & 10 at NU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:10ILL 4th & 6 at NU 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−5.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:16NU 4th & 4 at ILL 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:59ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:35NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:21NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:41NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:45ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0555% → 55%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
44.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
44.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 6 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-1
44.8%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
45.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:0145% → 49%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
45.3%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
45.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+10
45.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
45.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
45.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
45.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+12
45.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 12 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
46.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
46.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.0%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.1%
Wes Lunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:5451% → 54%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
48.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+48
48.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 48 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
48.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
48.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
45.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 19 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5247% → 46%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
46.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
46.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:5254% → 60%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
46.0%
Warren Long run for no gain to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
46.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
45.9%
Warren Long run for 1 yd to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
45.8%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
46.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
46.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 11
OPP 48
+15
47.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Day) to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
45.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+4
45.4%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
45.1%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
45.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Stephen Buckley for 7 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
45.1%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.5%
Warren Long run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1342% → 42%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
41.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
41.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1959% → 68%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
41.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Eric Finney) to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
40.3%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+39
41.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 39 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
39.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+6
39.5%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+9
39.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Kidd for 9 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
39.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:3934% → 33%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
33.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 15 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
34.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
34.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
34.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
33.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
33.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 27 yds, downed at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1969% → 68%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
31.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
31.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-7
31.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Mason Monheim for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
32.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds, downed at the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0433% → 31%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
32.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+7
32.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
32.7%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
32.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Austin Schmidt) to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+10
31.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 10 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
31.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
31.1%
Taylor Zalewski 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5771% → 71%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
29.2%
Jelani Roberts run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
28.6%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
28.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
29.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1529% → 27%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
28.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
28.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
27.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3974% → 75%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
26.1%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
25.5%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
25.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 7 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
25.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Pierre Youngblood-ArySimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
23.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
24.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Quinn BakerSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
25.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 29 yds · 1:1226% → 28%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
25.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
25.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+13
25.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 13 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
25.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+11
25.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 11 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
26.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 10 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
28.2%
Wes Lunt sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2025% → 26%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
25.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 20 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
27.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
26.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
26.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
26.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5177% → 77%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
22.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
23.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
23.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds, downed at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0424% → 21%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
23.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-1
23.4%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-6
21.6%
Wes Lunt sacked by Anthony Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
20.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 62 yds, downed at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5081% → 81%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
19.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
19.2%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
19.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+2
19.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 2 yds to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1321% → 21%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
20.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-1
21.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Illin Wes LuntSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
21.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
20.7%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2783% → 86%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
16.6%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
15.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
15.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+8
15.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Jihad Ward for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton Thorson , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Chunky Clements) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
50
0
14.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
50
-2
14.4%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-3
14.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for a loss of 3 yards Solomon Vault fumbled, forced by Chunky Clements, recovered by Illin Carroll PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4520% → 16%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
19.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 14 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
19.5%
Wes Lunt run for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 19
OPP 40
+8
17.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 8 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
18.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
15.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22INT TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1587% → 75%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
13.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 15 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
12.0%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
11.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+58
24.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Mason Monheim return for 58 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:4375% → 80%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
25.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+27
24.7%
Justin Jackson run for 27 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
21.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
20.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+18
21.0%
Warren Long run for 18 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
19.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
19.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 1 yd to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-7
20.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 12 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brad North) to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 16
OPP 22
0
21.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+39
20.5%
Jack Mitchell 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:2918% → 19%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
18.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 34 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
20.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
19.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 6 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
19.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
19.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
18.7%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Matthew Harris return for no gain to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3486% → 87%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
14.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+7
14.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
14.4%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
13.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Jelani RobertsSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
13.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+2
13.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+17
13.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 17 yds to the Illin 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:4014% → 11%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 3 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
13.2%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+23
11.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 23 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
13.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 24 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
14.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
14.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+2
13.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-5
11.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Christian DiLauro) to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
11.1%
Taylor Zalewski 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:4491% → 98%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
9.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
6.5%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
5.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
4.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
3.9%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
3.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
2.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:093% → 3%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+23
2.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 23 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
3.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 9 yds to the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:45
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted for a TD Mason Monheim return for 58 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q2 11:41
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-7.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:45
Taylor Zalewski kickoff for 49 yds , Dan Vitale return for 16 yds to the Nwest 32
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com