Try the model
NU

Northwestern 13 at Wisconsin 7

WIS
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:59 · Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, downed at the Wisc 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense−29.8Garbage-time factor−13.4Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.5
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:34: Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28 — NU win probability +15.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 13:29: Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Wisc 47 — WIS win probability +13.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:24: Corey Clement run for 9 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +15.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:39: Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36 — NU win probability +16.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:00: Jack Mitchell 37 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +18.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:00NU 4th & 8 at WIS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35NU 4th & 10 at WIS 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:34NU 4th & 13 at NU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:56NU 4th & 11 at NU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00NU 4th & 5 at WIS 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55NU 4th & 1 at WIS 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−2.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:18NU 4th & 17 at NU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:46WIS 4th & 12 at WIS 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−4.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:14NU 4th & 3 at NU 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50NU 4th & 3 at WIS 23, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−1.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−14.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:47NU 4th & 4 at NU 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:39NU 4th & 7 at WIS 34, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−1.2
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:52WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:59NU 4th & 3 at NU 29, up 6
    Close callPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:06WIS 4th & 11 at NU 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−9.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−16.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:12NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:24WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
78.1%
Joel Stave run for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
78.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 6 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-7
78.1%
Joel Stave sacked by Deonte Gibson for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
78.1%
Drew Meyer punt for 30 yds, downed at the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
77.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-2
77.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
77.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
77.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
77.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for no gain to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
77.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 11Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+5
77.3%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex (Harris, Matthew), PENALTY NU DO (Chapman, Max) 5 yards to the WIS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
77.3%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Nick VanHoose return for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1324% → 25%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
76.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
76.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
74.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for 12 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
75.2%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
75.4%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+23
75.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for 23 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
75.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
75.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Dare OgunbowaleSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+10
75.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for a loss of 3 yards Tanner McEvoy fumbled, forced by Matthew Harris, recovered by Nwest Dean Lowry , return for 10 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:5028% → 30%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
72.5%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+20
72.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 20 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
72.4%
Warren Long run for 7 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+4
72.4%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
72.4%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
72.4%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 11Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
72.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
70.3%
Jack Mitchell 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:3571% → 69%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
70.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 12 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
69.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
69.1%
Taiwan Deal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
68.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
68.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
53.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
52.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
52.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 4 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
53.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
52.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-5
54.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Warren Long) to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+4
55.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 4 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
68.5%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+1
69.4%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
69.2%
Taiwan Deal run for 1 yd to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-11
69.1%
Joel Stave sacked by Dean Lowry and Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 11 yards to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 20
OWN 38
-8
67.6%
Joel Stave sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 25 Joel Stave fumbled, recovered by Wisc Joel Stave , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 33
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 50 yds, downed at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
64.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
64.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 6 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
63.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-11
63.3%
Long, Warren rush for 7 yards to the NU49 (Caputo, Michael;Hillary, Darius), PENALTY NU holding (Hance, Blake) 11 yards to the NU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+5
64.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
65.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete, broken up by T.J. WattSimilar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+1
65.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Alex Erickson returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
61.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 11 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
61.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 4 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+10
61.6%
Corey Clement run for 10 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
62.8%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-7
62.1%
Joel Stave sacked by Deonte Gibson for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+9
60.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 9 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
60.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:4144% → 51%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
55.9%
Justin Jackson run for 32 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
53.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+21
53.8%
Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, personal foul (Jack Cichy) to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
52.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
53.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+3
53.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+7
53.8%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
53.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
49.2%
Jack Mitchell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
49.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
48.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 6 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
49.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
48.9%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
49.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 4 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
48.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
48.7%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
49.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-1
50.6%
Warren Long run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:1745% → 65%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.0%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
44.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 16 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+42
47.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 42 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
48.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 9Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.5%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
56.6%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
55.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+4
56.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 4 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
55.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
54.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan Vitale, broken up by Darius HillarySimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-10
55.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
59.6%
Hunter Niswander punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
57.1%
Joel Stave run for 3 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+10
57.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to George Rushing for 10 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
57.7%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 28 Corey Clement fumbled, forced by Nick VanHoose,Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
56.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoy, broken up by Nick VanHooseSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+5
55.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, DO (Dean Lowry) to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
55.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
54.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
51.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
51.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+4
52.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
52.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds , Alex Erickson returns for no gain to the Wisc 30 Alex Erickson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Matthew HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2354% → 51%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
45.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
45.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
46.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan Vitale, broken up by Tanner McEvoySimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
48.6%
Jack Mitchell 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
52.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
52.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
50.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+53
49.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the WISCONSIN 32 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
49.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
48.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
49.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles Shuler, broken up by Jack CichySimilar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
52.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Alex Erickson at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 54%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
50.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Austin Traylor for 7 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
53.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
52.9%
Joel Stave run for 2 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
53.5%
Joel Stave sacked by Tyler Lancaster for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 37 Joel Stave fumbled, recovered by Nwest C.J. Robbins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0063% → 59%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
37.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
37.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
38.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
41.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 31 yds, downed at the Wisc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
44.1%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 2Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+9
43.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 9 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+3
42.4%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Anthony Walker return for 3 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24FG
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:4869% → 83%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
31.0%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 13
OPP 23
0
31.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+14
34.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
31.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 8Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
31.0%
Austin Carr run for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
35.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Matt Frazier) to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
35.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
16.8%
Jack Mitchell 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 24%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
28.4%
Stave, Joel pass complete to Fumagalli, Troy for 38 yards to the NU27 (VanHoose, Nick), PENALTY WIS holding (Marz, Tyler) 10 yards to the WIS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+6
26.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
25.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Dean LowrySimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
24.4%
Drew Meyer punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1688% → 91%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
11.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+4
11.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+4
11.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
9.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, downed at the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 1:4114% → 11%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.3%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Anthony WalkerSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
14.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for 18 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
16.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 4
50
+15
18.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 15 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
21.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Nate HallSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
21.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Tanner McEvoy for 12 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
24.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 22 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
24.5%
Joel Stave sacked by Warren Long for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 11Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
19.4%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
0
10.8%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Tanner McEvoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 4:00
Jack Mitchell 37 yd FG GOOD
-18.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:39
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36
-16.1
TD · Q3 8:24
Corey Clement run for 9 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com