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MICH

Michigan 28 at Penn State 16

PSU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:28 · Blake O'Neill punt for 35 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 9 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by Mich Jehu Chesson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−7.5Pregame prior−3.0Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:01: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:51: Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +11.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:07: Sione Houma run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +12.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:05: Tyler Davis 18 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:12: De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +11.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:09PSU 4th & 6 at MICH 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:11PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31PSU 4th & 8 at MICH 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 29, up 4
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35PSU 4th & 19 at MICH 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:18MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:09PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:05MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:05MICH 4th & 10 at PSU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:11PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:28MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 43, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−4.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:10PSU 4th & 9 at MICH 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:02PSU 4th & 6 at MICH 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−7.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−5.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:05PSU 4th & 1 at MICH 1, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%−5.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−20.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:00PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 25, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:43MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:01PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:51MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:07MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:12MICH Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:2142% → 44%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
42.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+5
42.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
42.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 56 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
42.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Mich 8Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
43.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
43.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
43.6%
Tyler Davis 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:1757% → 58%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
43.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 7 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
43.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara Darboh MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Touching (Amara Darboh) to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+16
44.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 16 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
44.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
44.5%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+39
45.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 39 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
41.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 26 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:2343% → 42%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
42.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
42.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Willie Henry) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-3
42.6%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-5
42.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Andrew Nelson) to the PnSt 10Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
42.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+9
42.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 42 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 9 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5758% → 57%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
42.1%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 14
OPP 47
-3
42.5%
Jake Rudock sacked by Torrence Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 17
50
+25
42.9%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted Brandon Bell return for 25 yds to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0144% → 43%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
44.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brent Wilkerson for 6 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-4
44.2%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
43.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2657% → 56%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
43.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 17
-5
43.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (A.J. Williams) to the Mich 12Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-5
43.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Graham Glasgow) to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+11
43.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 11 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+4
43.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 4 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
43.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 23Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
43.3%
Jabrill Peppers run for 6 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
43.3%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
44.1%
Blake O'Neill punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:0944% → 43%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
43.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
45.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brent Wilkerson for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
45.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Matthew Godin) to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
45.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
45.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Willie Henry) to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
46.5%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+1
45.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 19
OPP 34
0
44.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 19
OPP 34
0
42.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5757% → 59%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
43.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
42.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
42.9%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
42.7%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
41.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
39.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
41.3%
Blake O'Neill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4142% → 40%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.9%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
41.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 5 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-2
40.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
40.3%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4061% → 59%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
39.2%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the Mich 44 Jake Rudock fumbled, recovered by Mich Jake RudockSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
39.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jabrill PeppersSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
39.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+1
41.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Von Walker blocked by Von Walker Von Walker return for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:5946% → 55%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
45.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
45.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+9
45.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
46.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 4 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
46.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+25
55.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:0149% → 65%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
52.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+26
53.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 26 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
48.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
47.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
46.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 18 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
35.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:5059% → 59%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
40.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+8
40.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
40.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Maurice Ways for 9 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
38.8%
Sione Houma run for 4 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
39.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 7 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
37.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
38.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
38.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
41.1%
Blake O'Neill punt for 35 yds, downed at the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1941% → 40%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
41.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Brent Wilkerson for 5 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
41.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
40.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
39.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 45 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for no gain to the Mich 12 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:3860% → 62%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
40.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 1 yd to the Mich 34 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Anthony Zettel) to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
38.1%
Jabrill Peppers run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
37.9%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
38.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Da'Mario Jones for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
38.4%
Blake O'Neill punt for 35 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 9 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by Mich Jehu ChessonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5166% → 78%
Q3 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
34.4%
Jabrill Peppers run for 6 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.7%
Sione Houma run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5624% → 21%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
24.4%
Barkley, Saquon rush for no gain to the PENNST20, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Wormley, Chris) 15 yards to the PENNST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
24.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jabrill Peppers) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
50
-3
25.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 13
OWN 47
-6
24.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 19
OWN 41
0
22.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
21.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jabrill Peppers at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2677% → 81%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
22.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 6 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
22.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
20.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to A.J. Williams for 8 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
20.0%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-6
19.5%
Jake Rudock sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 42 Jake Rudock fumbled, forced by Brandon Bell, recovered by PnSt Brandon Bell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5824% → 25%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
23.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
23.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
22.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+38
19.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 38 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
23.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 6Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
24.6%
Tyler Davis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1679% → 79%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
20.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (Jehu Chesson) to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 23
OWN 13
+8
19.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 8 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
19.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
20.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+8
20.8%
Blake O'Neill punt for 50 yds , Gregg Garrity returns for 8 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:5521% → 34%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
21.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
23.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Willie Henry) to the PnSt 46Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
23.6%
Christian Hackenberg run for 6 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
24.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jourdan Lewis) to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
26.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-4
25.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+17
21.0%
Christian Hackenberg run for 17 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
24.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 14 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
24.2%
Brandon Polk run for 5 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
33.7%
Tyler Davis 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3480% → 95%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
20.2%
Jehu Chesson run for 20 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
17.1%
Jabrill Peppers run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
17.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+10
17.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Polk) to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
16.0%
Jabrill Peppers run for 5 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:097% → 4%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
5.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Chris Wormley and Willie Henry for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1596% → 98%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
3.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
3.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
1.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
1.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+3
1.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:07
Sione Houma run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q2 0:51
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q4 5:12
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com