Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 17 at Ohio State 14

OSU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Ohio Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:38 · Cameron Johnston punt for 40 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for a loss of 21 yards to the MchSt 6 Macgarrett Kings Jr. fumbled, recovered by OhSt Terry McLaurin
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+12.1Home team on offense+1.2Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Trevon Pendleton for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:33: J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK) — OSU win probability +19.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:03: Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:07: LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45 — MSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Michael Geiger 41 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +35.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:06OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44OSU 4th & 1 at MSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45OSU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:31OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:30MSU 4th & 12 at OSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:13OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:05MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21OSU 4th & 1 at OSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:02OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:23MSU 4th & 3 at OSU 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−3.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:38OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45MSU 4th & 3 at OSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−1.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:43OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:49MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−6.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:45OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:57MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:33OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:03MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3985% → 84%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.5%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 24Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
84.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
84.2%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
84.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 4:1316% → 17%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
83.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.6%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
83.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Bosa) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+2
83.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-10
82.9%
O'Connor, Tyler pass complete to Holmes, Gerald for no gain to the MICHIGANST43, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
83.0%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
83.0%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
82.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 37 yds, downed at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0983% → 82%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
82.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
82.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+16
82.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 16 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
82.8%
Braxton Miller run for 4 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
82.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
82.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
81.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:5518% → 20%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
81.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Bosa) to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+3
81.3%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
81.0%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
80.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 6 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+8
80.3%
LJ Scott run for 8 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
80.0%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
79.8%
Damion Terry pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
79.6%
Damion Terry sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 32 Damion Terry fumbled, forced by Sam Hubbard, recovered by OhSt Adolphus Washington , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:0482% → 83%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
81.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
81.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+7
81.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
81.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
81.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
80.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
81.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 3 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4818% → 28%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
82.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
81.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Clemons) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-1
82.1%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Adolphus Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+2
82.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+36
82.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 36 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
79.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+7
79.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the OhSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
72.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Trevon Pendleton for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2677% → 75%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
76.6%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Jon Reschke for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 18Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
75.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
74.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 5 yds, downed at the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0129% → 27%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
71.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 14
OPP 27
-5
71.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
71.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to LJ ScottSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+7
72.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Delton Williams for 7 yds to the OhSt 25Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
73.0%
Michael Geiger 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1776% → 74%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
74.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
73.5%
Cameron Johnston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0828% → 28%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
71.8%
Damion Terry run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-10
70.2%
Kings Jr., Macgarrett rush for 6 yards to the MICHIGANST41, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Allen, Brian) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
71.9%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+8
72.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+13
72.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds , Jalin Marshall returns for 13 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4474% → 74%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Braxton MillerSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 5 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
74.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 4 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+4
73.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 53 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
70.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:3429% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
70.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 9 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
69.1%
Delton Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
67.3%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
67.4%
Tyler O'Connor run for 1 yd to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
68.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds, downed at the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2472% → 69%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
71.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 14Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
71.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 4 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
69.8%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+2
69.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 49 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:3932% → 35%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
67.7%
Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
66.1%
Damion Terry run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
66.2%
Damion Terry run for 12 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
64.0%
Damion Terry run for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
63.2%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for no gain to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
63.6%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the OhSt 41Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
64.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jalin Marshall at the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:4569% → 66%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
69.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
67.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-21
66.3%
Cameron Johnston punt for 40 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for a loss of 21 yards to the MchSt 6 Macgarrett Kings Jr. fumbled, recovered by OhSt Terry McLaurinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:3019% → 49%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
80.8%
R.J. Shelton run for 19 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+14
77.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 14 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
78.7%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-1
76.6%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
78.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+5
81.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Bosa) to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+11
80.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for 11 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
76.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
78.7%
Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+5
80.3%
Tyler O'Connor run for 5 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
78.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the OhSt 2Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2064% → 62%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.5%
Braxton Miller run for 5 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
64.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 3 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
63.1%
J.T. Barrett run for 9 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
64.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+5
62.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 5 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
62.4%
Cameron Johnston punt for 48 yds, downed at the MchSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5443% → 48%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+20
57.4%
LJ Scott run for 20 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
56.1%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
53.8%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.0%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
50.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
52.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyquan Lewis) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
48.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
51.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 51 yds, downed at the OhSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4258% → 53%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
57.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
57.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the OhSt 8Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+3
54.3%
Braxton Miller run for 3 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
53.4%
TEAM punt for 37 yds, downed at the OhSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22END OF GAME
13 plays · 25 yds · 4:0755% → 95%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
45.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
44.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 6 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
42.9%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
42.8%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
38.0%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
39.4%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
38.1%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
39.5%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+41
5.2%
Michael Geiger 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Michael Geiger 41 yd FG GOOD
-35.8
TD · Q4 12:03
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-24.9
TD · Q3 3:33
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Sean Nuernberger KICK)
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com