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ILL

Illinois 23 at Minnesota 32

MINN
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:10 · Ryan Frain punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:37: Shannon Brooks run for 38 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +6.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +8.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:15: Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 6 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +13.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:56: Taylor Zalewski 36 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +9.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:25: Shannon Brooks run for 75 yds for a TD, (M. Leidner Run For Two-point Conversion) — MINN win probability +24.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27MINN 4th & 6 at ILL 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:17ILL 4th & 4 at MINN 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:37ILL 4th & 22 at ILL 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:39ILL 4th & 7 at MINN 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:14MINN 4th & 16 at ILL 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−3.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−9.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:14ILL 4th & 3 at MINN 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:03MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:13ILL 4th & 8 at MINN 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:27MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:56ILL 4th & 3 at MINN 18, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−14.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:56MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:10ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−5.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:25ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:41ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:00MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:37MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:05MINN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:15ILL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:25MINN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
59.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
59.8%
Leidner, Mitch pass complete to Maye, KJ for 5 yards to the MINN36 (Fejedelem,C.), PENALTY ILL offside (Phillips,C.) 5 yards to the MINN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+7
59.8%
KJ Maye run for 7 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
59.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
59.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon LingenSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
59.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
59.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 16 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
59.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 11 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
59.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 15 yds Geronimo Allison fumbled, forced by De'Vondre Campbell, recovered by Minn Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
60.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
60.1%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
60.3%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
60.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
60.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
59.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 18 yds, downed at the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:3440% → 46%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
59.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Henry Enyenihi for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
59.6%
Henry Enyenihi run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+18
59.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 18 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
59.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
59.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+14
59.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 14 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
59.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 7 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+10
59.0%
Kendrick Foster run for 10 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
59.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 2 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
59.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 3 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
54.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:4156% → 62%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+33
55.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 33 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
56.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 15 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
57.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+11
57.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
57.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4342% → 43%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
58.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
57.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 15 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
57.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+28
56.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 28 yds to the Minn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
56.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
56.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 7 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
57.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh Ferguson, broken up by KiAnte HardinSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
56.6%
Taylor Zalewski 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:4059% → 64%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
59.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
59.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+11
58.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 11 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
59.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
59.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 5 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+38
63.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 38 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.8%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
63.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-12
63.7%
Wes Lunt sacked by Julian Huff and Gaelin Elmore for a loss of 12 yards to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 22
OWN 11
0
64.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
65.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
65.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Illin 35 Shannon Brooks fumbled, forced by Chunky Clements, recovered by Illin Dawuane Smoot , return for 2 yds to the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:3137% → 40%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
63.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
61.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 11 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
61.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+12
61.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 12 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
60.0%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
60.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete, broken up by Gaelin ElmoreSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+6
62.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
60.4%
Taylor Zalewski 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
21 plays · 74 yds · 3:3463% → 74%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
63.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 4 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-10
63.1%
Brooks, Shannon rush for 5 yards to the MINN40 (Barton,Taylor), PENALTY MINN holding (Moore, Tyler) 10 yards to the MINN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
61.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 12 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
63.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 6 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
64.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
63.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 12 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
65.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 14 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
65.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
65.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+13
64.7%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Wozniak, Nate, PENALTY ILL pass interference (Fejedelem,C.) 13 yards to the ILL12, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
65.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
65.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
64.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.1%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4527% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
72.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 19 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
71.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 6 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+7
70.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
70.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
70.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
69.8%
Kendrick Foster run for 3 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
68.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 6 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
68.5%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
69.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
73.1%
Zalewski,T. field goal attempt from 39 GOOD, clock 09:07, PENALTY MINN offside (Boddy-Calhoun,B) 5 yards to the MINN16, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
70.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 10 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.1%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Minn 6Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 6 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0168% → 67%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
67.6%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Lingen, Brandon, PENALTY ILL pass interference (Barton,Taylor) 12 yards to the ILL22, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
67.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
67.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-3
66.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 11
OPP 23
-5
62.6%
Santoso, Ryan field goal attempt from 41 GOOD, clock 06:31, PENALTY MINN false start (Moore, Tyler) 5 yards to the ILL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
66.9%
Ryan Santoso 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0033% → 35%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
66.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+9
67.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
66.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 4 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
66.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+12
65.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
63.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 8 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-1
62.1%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
63.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
64.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
69.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
69.7%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
68.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+7
67.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 7 yds to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:1834% → 30%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.8%
Desmond Cain pass incomplete, broken up by Duke McGheeSimilar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+27
66.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 27 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
62.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
62.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
70.4%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Antonio Johnson return for no gain to the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:3973% → 70%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
72.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-1
71.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+8
70.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 8 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
72.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
73.2%
KJ Maye run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
71.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
69.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:1132% → 44%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
67.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
66.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 4 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
66.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 4 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
65.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
65.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 7 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
62.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
62.6%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
62.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
65.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
56.0%
Taylor Zalewski 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
63.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 12 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
65.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
66.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 3 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
65.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon Lingen, broken up by Clayton FejedelemSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-4
62.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 37 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 1:3640% → 33%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
60.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte Taylor, broken up by Duke McGheeSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
61.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
59.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
58.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 5 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
57.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
55.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-11
57.0%
Wes Lunt sacked by Julian Huff for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+2
65.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 19
OWN 32
0
66.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:5772% → 96%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+75
95.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 75 yds for a TD, (M. Leidner Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:004% → 6%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
96.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
96.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
96.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 7 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+9
96.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
95.9%
Wes Lunt run for 14 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
95.2%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Turner,Malik, PENALTY MINN substitution infraction 5 yards to the MINN33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+5
94.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
94.4%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 29 Josh Ferguson fumbled, recovered by Minn Julian HuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:25
Shannon Brooks run for 75 yds for a TD, (M. Leidner Run For Two-point Conversion)
+24.1
TD · Q3 8:15
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 6 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-13.5
FG · Q4 6:56
Taylor Zalewski 36 yd FG GOOD
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com