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PUR

Purdue 14 at Northwestern 21

NU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:34 · David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+20.4Home team on offense+3.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:03: Markell Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +15.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:04: David Blough run for 6 yds to the Prdue 35 — PUR win probability +5.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. SACK · Q3 4:12: David Blough sacked by Drew Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 44 — PUR win probability +7.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q4 14:51: David Blough sacked by Drew Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 30 — PUR win probability +8.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:37: Justin Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +22.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 11:55NU 4th & 12 at PUR 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:27PUR 4th & 2 at NU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:58NU 4th & 6 at NU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:31PUR 4th & 18 at NU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 8 at NU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:28PUR 4th & 7 at NU 23, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:48NU 4th & 1 at NU 32, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08PUR 4th & 2 at NU 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:03NU 4th & 1 at PUR 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−2.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:22PUR 4th & 9 at NU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−8.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:12PUR 4th & 10 at NU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:51PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:47NU 4th & 11 at NU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−3.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:50PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:37PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:19NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:03PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:40NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:03PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:37NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4181% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
81.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
81.1%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
81.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 4 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
81.1%
Warren Long run for 5 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
81.1%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
81.2%
Warren Long run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
80.3%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 68 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
80.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
80.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
80.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 10 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
80.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 47Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
80.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan Vitale, broken up by Andy James GarciaSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
80.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 12
OPP 47
+40
80.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds, downed at the Prdue 13 PURDUE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (6 Yards) to the Prdue 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
79.6%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 6 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 4
OWN 13
0
79.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique Young, broken up by Nick VanHooseSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
79.7%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 9 yds to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
79.5%
Markell Jones run for 8 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
79.3%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 5 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
79.5%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 12 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
79.2%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
79.3%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
79.2%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
79.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
78.4%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
78.3%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
78.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+3
77.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 3 yds to the Prdue 16 PURDUE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Prdue 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
77.2%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
77.2%
David Blough run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+16
77.2%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 16 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-13
76.9%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Yancey, De. (Harris, Matthew), PENALTY PUR personal foul (King, Jason) 13 yards to the NU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 23
OPP 44
-2
77.4%
D.J. Knox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 25
OPP 46
0
77.5%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 25
OPP 46
+7
77.8%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 7 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
78.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 34 yds, downed at the Nwest 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:3577% → 76%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+24
77.1%
Justin Jackson run for 24 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
77.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
77.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Shane Mertz) to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+15
76.1%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to McHugh, Mike (Hunte, Da'Wan), PENALTY PUR personal foul (Hunte, Da'Wan) 15 yards to the NU40, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
77.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
77.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
76.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
76.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 55 yds, downed at the Prdue 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
75.5%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+3
75.6%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 3 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+7
76.0%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 7 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
75.3%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
75.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+12
75.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 12 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
75.3%
David Blough pass intercepted Traveon Henry return for no gain to the Prdue 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:3377% → 82%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
76.8%
Miles Shuler run for 26 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
77.2%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
77.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
77.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Prdue 1Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.6%
Warren Long run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
79.7%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 9 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
78.8%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
79.0%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 42 Markell Jones fumbled, forced by Anthony Walker, recovered by Prdue Markell JonesSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
80.0%
David Blough run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
79.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
79.4%
David Blough pass complete to Jordan Jurasevich for 3 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
79.4%
David Blough pass incomplete, broken up by Traveon HenrySimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
80.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
80.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 38 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Danny Ezechukwu, recovered by Prdue Robert Gregory , return for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2222% → 20%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
78.3%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 9 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
77.2%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
77.2%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
77.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique Young, broken up by Dean LowrySimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
78.5%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for no gain to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 7
OPP 23
0
80.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3381% → 80%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
81.4%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
81.5%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
81.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
80.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, downed at the Prdue 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 36 yds · 1:3118% → 20%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
81.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo Yancey, broken up by Matthew HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
81.8%
David Blough run for 6 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+10
81.3%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 10 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.8%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
50
+7
79.4%
David Blough pass complete to Shane Mikesky for 7 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
79.0%
Bilal Marshall run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 17
50
0
81.6%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 17
50
+15
82.0%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 15 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
79.7%
David Blough pass incomplete, broken up by Traveon HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5721% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
79.4%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
79.2%
Markell Jones run for 8 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
78.6%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 22 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
77.5%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
76.1%
David Blough run for no gain to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+32
77.7%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 29 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, roughing passer (Keith Watkins II) to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.7%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.5%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
69.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 16 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
72.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 15 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
72.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
72.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 3 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
72.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
71.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon Vault, broken up by Leroy ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:4235% → 37%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
65.4%
David Blough run for 6 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
63.8%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 11 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
62.8%
Markell Jones run for 17 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
62.2%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
61.2%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+4
62.2%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
60.7%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-1
60.7%
D.J. Knox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
62.7%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
63.2%
Paul Griggs 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
67.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 16 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
69.7%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
68.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+4
66.5%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Frankie Williams return for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
58.6%
David Blough sacked by Drew Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+3
60.1%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
60.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Danny Anthrop, broken up by Keith Watkins IISimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
62.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20INT
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:4066% → 68%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
65.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+13
65.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Mike McHugh for 13 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+37
66.9%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Solomon Vault for 37 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
71.0%
Miles Shuler run for 4 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-5
71.0%
Jackson, Justin rush for 2 yards to the PUR21 (Hudson, Garrett), PENALTY NU illegal shift 5 yards to the PUR28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
70.9%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+17
67.8%
Zack Oliver pass intercepted Brandon Roberts return for 17 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
59.6%
David Blough sacked by Drew Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+7
61.0%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 7 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+3
60.1%
David Blough pass complete to D.J. Knox for 3 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
61.3%
Joe Schopper punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
64.1%
Oliver, Zack pass incomplete to Jones, C. (Brown, Anthony), PENALTY PUR pass interference (Brown, Anthony) 11 yards to the NU44, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.1%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
65.8%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-1
63.7%
Zack Oliver sacked by Da'Wan Hunte for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
61.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds , Frankie Williams returns for no gain to the Prdue 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5341% → 38%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
59.5%
David Yancey run for 1 yd to the Prdue 6Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+7
59.9%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 7 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 13
-3
60.7%
David Blough run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 10Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
62.5%
Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:2267% → 93%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
67.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 2
50
+5
67.6%
PURDUE Penalty, offside defense (Shayne Henley) to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
68.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
69.0%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
68.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
70.7%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-10
70.7%
Jackson, Justin rush for 1 yard to the PUR26 (Garcia, Andy), PENALTY NU holding (Olson, Eric) 10 yards to the PUR37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
66.6%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+16
65.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 16 yds to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
70.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 16 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
70.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole Herdman, broken up by Drew SmithSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.0%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
90.4%
Joe Schopper punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:3595% → 95%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
94.5%
Justin Jackson run for 20 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.9%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
95.6%
Warren Long run for 7 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
95.5%
Warren Long run for 5 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
96.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Gelen Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 25Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 16
OPP 25
-2
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 18
OPP 27
-1
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:37
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q3 12:03
Markell Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
-15.1
SACK · Q4 14:51
David Blough sacked by Drew Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 30
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com