Try the model
MD

Maryland 7 at Michigan State 24

MSU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Nicolas Pritchard punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mary 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+30.2Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. SACK · Q2 14:25: Perry Hills sacked by Malik McDowell and Riley Bullough for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 39 — MD win probability +2.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:53: Hills, Perry pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST offside 5 yards to the MARYLAND7, NO PLAY. — MD win probability +2.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:11: Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. — MSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:07: Riley Bullough 44 Yd Interception Return (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:20: Gerald Holmes 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:03MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:39MSU 4th & 27 at MSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00MD 4th & 4 at MD 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:02MD 4th & 15 at MD 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01MSU 4th & 6 at MD 14, tied
    Close callWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:08MD 4th & 5 at MD 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:17MD 4th & 11 at MD 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21MSU 4th & 11 at MD 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:34MD 4th & 3 at MD 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:00MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00MSU 4th & 10 at MD 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:11MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:12MD 4th & 3 at MSU 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:15MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:34MD 4th & 5 at MD 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:55MSU 4th & 9 at MD 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:47MD 4th & 3 at MSU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:40MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:52MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:07MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:20MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4788% → 87%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.7%
Connor Cook run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
87.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
87.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
87.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
87.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 29 yds, downed at the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1913% → 13%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
87.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
86.9%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+5
86.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
86.6%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line Wes Brown fumbled, forced by Malik McDowell, recovered by MchSt Damon Knox , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:3287% → 87%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
50
+9
86.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 9 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+7
86.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
86.8%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 6 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
86.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+6
86.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 6 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
86.6%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 6 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
86.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for no gain to the Mary 16Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
86.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
86.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 1 yd to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
87.4%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. 10 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 2:0913% → 16%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+37
86.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 37 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.4%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
86.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Jahrvis Davenport for 6 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
86.3%
Brandon Ross run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Jahrvis DavenportSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
86.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
86.1%
Brandon Ross run for 8 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
85.9%
Perry Hills run for 8 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+13
85.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 13 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Brandon Ross 1 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:3285% → 84%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+21
84.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 21 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
85.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mary 47Similar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
84.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for no gain to the Mary 47Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 20
OPP 47
0
84.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 20
OPP 47
-7
84.1%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 27
OWN 46
0
83.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mary 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2917% → 17%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
83.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to William Likely for 6 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 12
0
82.9%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
83.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
83.2%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mary 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.2%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the Mary 44 LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Azubuike Ukandu, recovered by Mary Brett ZanottoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:2319% → 17%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
81.5%
Perry Hills sacked by Malik McDowell and Riley Bullough for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
82.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 15
OWN 39
0
82.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Avery EdwardsSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
82.6%
Nicolas Pritchard punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5184% → 83%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.8%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
83.6%
R.J. Shelton run for 3 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+28
83.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 28 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
83.7%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
83.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Madre LondonSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
83.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 6
OPP 14
-6
82.5%
Michael Geiger run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4419% → 19%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
80.9%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
80.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
80.2%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
80.3%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Lee Shrader punt for 19 yds, downed at the Mary 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4483% → 81%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
82.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 6 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+14
82.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 14 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
82.6%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
82.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
81.0%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Anthony Nixon return for no gain to the Mary 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3621% → 22%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
78.7%
Hills, Perry pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST offside 5 yards to the MARYLAND7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 5
OWN 7
+2
78.5%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 3
OWN 9
0
78.4%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+5
78.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 5 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
77.5%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+1
77.4%
William Likely run for 1 yd to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
77.6%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
78.1%
Lee Shrader punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5081% → 79%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
80.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-1
79.8%
Connor Cook sacked by Yannick Ngakoue and Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
78.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14INT TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:5223% → 15%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+32
76.7%
Perry Hills run for 32 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
74.6%
William Likely run for no gain to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
74.4%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+44
84.7%
Riley Bullough 44 Yd Interception Return (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1615% → 15%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
84.7%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Taivon JacobsSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
84.8%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+7
85.3%
Perry Hills run for 7 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
85.2%
Lee Shrader punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2285% → 84%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
85.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
85.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
84.7%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
83.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
84.2%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Arjen Colquhoun return for 7 yds to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18END OF HALF
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:3986% → 86%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
85.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 7 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+11
85.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
85.8%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
84.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
85.9%
Michael Geiger 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4114% → 13%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.8%
Perry Hills run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
85.6%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.8%
Perry Hills run for no gain to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
87.4%
Lee Shrader punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 5:2888% → 95%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
87.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
87.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+6
87.3%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
88.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
88.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
88.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+8
88.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
88.3%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
88.3%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the Mary 14Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+11
87.6%
Tyler O'Connor run for 11 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.1%
Gerald Holmes 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21FUMBLE
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:056% → 5%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.0%
Perry Hills pass complete to William Likely for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
94.3%
Perry Hills run for 4 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
94.4%
Wes Brown run for 12 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
93.9%
Wes Brown run for 11 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
93.9%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+12
94.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 12 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
94.3%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
94.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 5 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
94.2%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+6
94.6%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
93.8%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
94.3%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+2
94.8%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29 Brandon Ross fumbled, forced by Demetrius Cooper, recovered by MchSt Demetrius CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0796% → 96%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
95.7%
LJ Scott run for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Anthony Nixon, recovered by MchSt Aaron Burbridge for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.0%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
96.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
96.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
95.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.6%
Wes Brown run for 7 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-4
95.3%
Perry Hills run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 23 Perry Hills fumbled, recovered by Mary Perry HillsSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
95.9%
Perry Hills run for 2 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Lee Shrader punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24INT
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:4997% → 97%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
96.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+14
96.7%
Damion Terry run for 14 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-4
97.1%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+14
97.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+38
97.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Anthony Nixon return for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 39 Sean Davis return for 38 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+38
97.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Anthony Nixon return for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 0 Sean Davis return for 38 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.6%
D.J. Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-3
96.7%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-1
97.0%
Perry Hills sacked by Chris Frey for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+10
96.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 10 yds to the Mary 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2898% → 97%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
97.6%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-3
97.6%
Madre London run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
97.6%
Damion Terry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+7
97.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds , William Likely returns for 7 yds to the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:583% → 2%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
96.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 7 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+12
96.8%
Wes Brown run for 12 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
97.0%
Perry Hills sacked by Craig Evans and Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+13
97.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 13 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+16
97.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 16 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
97.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
97.3%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
97.8%
Perry Hills run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
98.7%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
98.9%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28INT
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
99.4%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 20 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
99.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+9
99.1%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Taivon Jacobs for 9 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.1%
Wes Brown run for 6 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+30
98.8%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Montae Nicholson return for 30 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-1
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:07
Riley Bullough 44 Yd Interception Return (Michael Geiger Kick)
+10.3
TD · Q3 7:20
Gerald Holmes 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
+7.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:11
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com