View as
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMINN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:52 · Peter Mortell punt for 45 yds, downed at the Iowa 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:06: Brandon Lingen 40 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +7.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:05: Rodrick Williams Jr 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +18.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
- TD · Q4 14:30: C.J. Beathard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — IOWA win probability +8.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:32: Drew Wolitarsky 42 Yd pass from Shannon Brooks (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +19.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:16: Shannon Brooks 3 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +20.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:01MINN 4th & 4 at IOWA 47, tiedClose callPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it23.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:47IOWA 4th & 12 at MINN 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snapGo for it70.5%−0.823% to convertField goalTheir call71.2%58% to makePunt68.0%−3.3average punt
- Q2 3:52MINN 4th & 20 at IOWA 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it24.9%−1.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q3 13:11IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 39, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%−1.8average punt
- Q3 11:32MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 14, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.1%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q3 8:04IOWA 4th & 5 at MINN 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call83.2%75% to makePunt78.6%−4.6average punt
- Q4 13:17MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 32, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q4 10:49IOWA 4th & 5 at MINN 30, up 12Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call92.2%−0.256% to makePunt90.9%−1.6average punt
- Q4 8:58MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 29, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q4 6:08IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 28, up 12Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 4:23IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:54MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.4%97% to makeGo for two25.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:24IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.6%97% to makeGo for two26.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:44IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.4%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:05MINN Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.1%97% to makeGo for two17.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:30IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick90.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:32MINN Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.2%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 2:01IOWA Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 1:16MINN Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.3%97% to makeGo for two6.5%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMINNDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 1:5925% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2TD19 plays · 91 yds · 8:3075% → 77%
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 15
-5
74.9%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Hendrick Ekpe for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 10Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+12
74.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Derrick Mitchell Jr. for 12 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
74.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 3 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
74.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 3 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
74.0%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to VandeBerg, Matt, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Ayinde, Adekunle) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
74.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 6 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
74.4%
Daniels Jr., LeShun rush for 4 yards to the MINNESOTA31, PENALTY IOWA holding (Krieger Coble, Henry) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+5
73.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+18
73.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 18 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2424% → 30%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
75.7%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Still, Rashad, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Mabin, Greg) 15 yards to the IOWA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
74.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 37 yds to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD7 plays · 68 yds · 2:1472% → 77%
MINNDrive 5TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0824% → 32%
Q2 13:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
76.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 19 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
75.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 15 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
68.5%
Brandon Lingen 40 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6FG12 plays · 46 yds · 4:1271% → 72%
Q2 11:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
71.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Riley McCarron for 5 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
71.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 15 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
72.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+17
72.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 17 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-4
72.0%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Gaelin Elmore for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT12 plays · 31 yds · 3:4228% → 29%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
71.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 8 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-3
70.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+5
71.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
70.5%
Brooks, Shannon rush for 12 yards to the MINNESOTA43, PENALTY MINNESOTA illegal formation 5 yards to the MINNESOTA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+20
71.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 20 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-13
67.0%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Josey Jewell for a loss of 13 yards to the Iowa 48 MINNESOTA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mitch Leidner) to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8TD12 plays · 97 yds · 2:5971% → 84%
Q2 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+9
68.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 9 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
70.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 3 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+7
70.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 7 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
70.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 32 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
74.1%
Beathard, C.J. pass incomplete to Hillyer, Jacob, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Murray, Eric) 12 yards to the MINNESOTA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3981% → 81%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
81.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 6 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+8
80.6%
Dillon Kidd punt for 44 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 8 yds to the Minn 47 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Rallis) to the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3219% → 18%
Q3 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-10
80.2%
Brooks, Shannon rush for 10 yards to the MINNESOTA32, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Wozniak, Nate) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+10
82.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds , Desmond King returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12FG7 plays · 30 yds · 3:1883% → 87%
Q3 10:13
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+22
82.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 22 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4914% → 34%
IOWADrive 14TD5 plays · 37 yds · 1:1782% → 90%
MINNDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5812% → 9%
Q4 13:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16MISSED FG7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1991% → 94%
MINNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:478% → 6%
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
93.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 8 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-10
93.0%
Williams Jr, Rodrick rush for 10 yards to the MINNESOTA49, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Lingen, Brandon) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+62
94.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the IOWA 19 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Riley McCarron) to the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2895% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:306% → 25%
IOWADrive 20TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2386% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD8 plays · 75 yds · 0:412% → 24%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 17 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.5%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Still, Rashad, PENALTY IOWA roughing passer (Jewell, Josey) 15 yards to the IOWA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
97.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 13 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
96.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 13 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
96.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 14 yds to the Iowa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:16
Shannon Brooks 3 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
-20.9
TD · Q4 5:32
Drew Wolitarsky 42 Yd pass from Shannon Brooks (Ryan Santoso Kick)
-19.3
TD · Q3 1:05
Rodrick Williams Jr 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
-18.3