Try the model
MICH

Michigan 48 at Indiana 41

IU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.3IU 23.5%Griffin Oakes 39 Yd Field GoalAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 6:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:52 · Griffin Oakes 39 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 27Pregame prior−26.5Home team on offense−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 6:30: Kenny Allen 20 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +17.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 2:52: Jordan Howard 24 Yd Run (Jordan Howard Run for Two-Point Conversion) — IU win probability +42.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:00: Jehu Chesson 5 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +41.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Jake Butt 21 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +31.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Amara Darboh 25 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick) — MICH win probability +19.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:28IU 4th & 2 at MICH 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:52IU 4th & 18 at MICH 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03IU 4th & 1 at IU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:50IU 4th & 2 at MICH 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00IU 4th & 15 at MICH 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11IU 4th & 13 at MICH 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:53IU 4th & 3 at IU 49, down 12
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:11MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 24, up 12
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:23MICH 4th & 25 at MICH 10, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47MICH 4th & 10 at IU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:40IU 4th & 7 at MICH 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−11.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:27IU 4th & 7 at MICH 44, up 2
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−2.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:30MICH 4th & 2 at IU 2, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−24.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00MICH 4th & 5 at IU 5, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.9 ptsWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%−3.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−15.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:47MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:51MICH Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:18MICH Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:49IU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:23IU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:52IU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:00MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:2621% → 22%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.8%
Jordan Howard run for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
21.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 2 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
21.2%
Jordan Howard run for 6 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
21.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 8 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
21.6%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
21.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
21.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Devine Redding for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 8
50
+6
22.0%
Devine Redding run for 6 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-2
22.2%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:2378% → 79%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
22.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+12
22.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 12 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
22.3%
Sione Houma run for 2 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
21.4%
Jehu Chesson 34 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:3722% → 24%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
21.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 10 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
22.1%
Jordan Howard run for 16 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
22.5%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
22.7%
Nate Sudfeld run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+8
22.6%
Jordan Howard run for 8 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
22.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Matthew Godin) to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+1
22.9%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+14
23.2%
Devine Redding run for 14 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
23.3%
Devine Redding run for 1 yd to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
23.4%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-12
23.2%
Nate Sudfeld sacked by Royce Jenkins-Stone for a loss of 12 yards to the Mich 22 Nate Sudfeld fumbled, forced by Royce Jenkins-Stone, recovered by Ind Nate Sudfeld , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+39
23.5%
Griffin Oakes 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2276% → 75%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
24.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
24.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
24.9%
Blake O'Neill punt for 45 yds , Mitchell Paige returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 24 INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Block (Dominique Booth) to the Ind 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5FG
22 plays · 71 yds · 5:1024% → 27%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
24.3%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+9
24.4%
Jordan Howard run for 9 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
24.6%
Jordan Howard run for 11 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
24.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mitchell Paige for 7 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
25.9%
Mike Majette run for 2 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
25.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
25.6%
Jordan Howard run for 5 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
26.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Damon GrahamSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+8
25.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Mike Majette for 8 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+3
26.0%
Nate Sudfeld run for 3 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
26.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 17 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
27.4%
Jordan Howard run for 5 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+5
27.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Matthew Godin) to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
27.8%
Devine Redding run for 3 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
27.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Devine ReddingSimilar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-5
27.3%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Dimitric Camiel) to the Mich 15Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-5
27.1%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Ricky Jones) to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+2
26.5%
Devine Redding run for 2 yds to the Mich 18 INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Channing Stribling) to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
27.3%
Griffin Oakes 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0473% → 79%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
27.0%
Rudock, Jake pass complete to Kerridge, Joe for 6 yards to the MICHIGAN31, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Smith, De'Veon) 12 yards to the MICHIGAN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-7
27.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 6Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 29
OWN 6
+24
27.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 24 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
27.9%
Jake Rudock run for 23 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
26.6%
Johnson, Drake rush for 3 yards to the INDIANA44, PENALTY MICHIGAN illegal shift 5 yards to the MICHIGAN48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+2
27.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 13
50
+18
27.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 18 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
26.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+7
28.1%
Sione Houma run for 7 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+19
28.3%
Jake Rudock run for 19 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
26.9%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
21.5%
Jehu Chesson 15 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:3323% → 26%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
22.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 21 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
23.8%
Jordan Howard run for no gain to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
22.7%
Jordan Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 44Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+10
21.8%
Sudfeld, Nate pass incomplete to Cooper, Michael, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Wilson, Jarrod) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
23.9%
Jordan Howard run for 15 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
24.6%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Reed) to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 20
OPP 41
-15
23.0%
Sudfeld, Nate pass complete to Booker, Andre for 32 yards to the MICHIGAN9, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Booker, Andre) 15 yards to the INDIANA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 35
OWN 44
+7
22.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 7 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 28
OPP 49
+15
22.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Andre Booker for 15 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
22.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Andre BookerSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+51
26.4%
Griffin Oakes 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4673% → 80%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
27.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 16 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
26.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Kyle Kalis) to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+64
20.0%
Jehu Chesson 64 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:0420% → 20%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.4%
Jordan Howard run for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
21.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Michael Cooper for 8 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
21.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky Jones, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
20.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 7 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
21.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mike MajetteSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
20.4%
Erich Toth punt for 35 yds, downed at the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3480% → 80%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
19.6%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
19.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 2 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+6
20.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Grant Perry for 6 yds to the Mich 24 MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jake Butt) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
19.8%
Blake O'Neill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Paige at the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 1:1620% → 31%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
20.4%
Devine Redding run for 21 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
21.3%
Redding, Devine rush for 5 yards to the MICHIGAN35, PENALTY INDIANA holding (Camiel, Dimitric) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 20
50
+21
20.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 21 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
22.4%
Jordan Howard run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
22.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+15
21.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 15 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
21.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Nick Westbrook, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
21.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joe Bolden) to the Mich 7Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
30.8%
Jordan Howard 7 Yd pass from Nate Sudfeld (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 71 yds · 0:4173% → 82%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
26.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 16 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
24.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 13 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
22.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 29 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
22.1%
Jake Rudock run for 9 yds to the Ind 8 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zack Shaw) to the Ind 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
18.4%
Kenny Allen 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT TD
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:2779% → 64%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
21.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
22.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Drake JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-7
23.4%
Jake Rudock sacked by Darius Latham for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 10Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+51
36.5%
Mitchell Paige 51 Yd Punt Return (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:1968% → 65%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
32.4%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+18
32.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 18 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
32.1%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+14
32.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 14 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
31.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
31.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
32.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
35.4%
Kenny Allen 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:5638% → 50%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
37.8%
Nate Sudfeld run for 7 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
40.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
39.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Ricky Jones for 4 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
41.8%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Jason Spriggs) to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+44
39.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 44 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
44.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Simmie Cobbs Jr.Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+13
44.9%
Jordan Howard run for 13 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
45.2%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
45.6%
Jordan Howard run for no gain to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
44.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Michael CooperSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
50.2%
Griffin Oakes 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16INT
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:3353% → 54%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
46.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
48.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Erik Magnuson) to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
49.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
47.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+13
47.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 13 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+20
45.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 20 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
43.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+16
43.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 16 yds to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
43.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 15
OPP 20
-5
44.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
44.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 20
OPP 25
0
46.2%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted Jonathan Crawford return for no gain to the Ind 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:0554% → 57%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
53.5%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+13
53.6%
Jordan Howard run for 13 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
54.8%
Jordan Howard run for 10 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
57.4%
Devine Redding run for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
56.7%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Michael Cooper for 3 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
56.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Donavan Hale for 10 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
60.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
60.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Ricky JonesSimilar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-1
60.2%
Devine Redding run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
57.4%
Erich Toth punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
19 plays · 78 yds · 6:4747% → 69%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
53.5%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
55.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 11 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
54.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
55.3%
Sione Houma run for 7 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
52.3%
Jake Rudock run for 5 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
51.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 10 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
49.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
49.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+6
50.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
48.0%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+12
48.7%
Jake Rudock run for 12 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
48.1%
Rudock, Jake pass incomplete to Darboh, Amara, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fant, Rashard) 15 yards to the INDIANA7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
49.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jabrill Peppers for 6 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
48.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Royce Jenkins-Stone) to the Ind 6Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
48.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Sione Houma for 4 yds to the Ind 2Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
31.3%
Kenny Allen 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:2244% → 94%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
44.0%
Jordan Howard run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
50
+4
50.0%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
50.6%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
50.1%
Jordan Howard run for 4 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
51.6%
Mike Majette run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
54.1%
Nate Sudfeld run for 4 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
51.5%
Jordan Howard run for 6 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
93.9%
Jordan Howard 24 Yd Run (Jordan Howard Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:3914% → 56%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
86.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+9
83.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-2
83.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to De'Veon Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+41
85.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 41 yds to the Ind 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.8%
Sione Houma run for 1 yd to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.8%
Sione Houma run for no gain to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
85.4%
Drake Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 5Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
44.3%
Jehu Chesson 5 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
64.7%
Jordan Howard run for 16 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
64.7%
Mitchell Paige run for 7 yds to the Mich 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.7%
Jordan Howard run for no gain to the Mich 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.3%
Jordan Howard run for 1 yd to the Mich 1Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Willie Henry) to the Mich 1Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.8%
Jordan Howard 1 Yd Run (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
40.5%
Jake Butt 21 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
20.8%
Amara Darboh 25 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24Uncategorized
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0028% → 23%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
28.1%
Jordan Howard run for 17 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
28.1%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.1%
Jordan Howard run for no gain to the Mich 5Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
25.6%
Nate Sudfeld run for 3 yds to the Mich 2Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Mitchell Paige, broken up by Delano HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:52
Jordan Howard 24 Yd Run (Jordan Howard Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+42.3
TD · Q4 0:00
Jehu Chesson 5 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)
-41.9
TD · OT 0:00
Jake Butt 21 Yd pass from Jake Rudock (Kenny Allen Kick)
-31.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com